Raceday focus: Tips, analysis and best bets for Caulfield on Saturday

Promising galloper Tuvalu will be anchoring multis across the country and unbeaten colt Unflinching can keep winning, says form analyst Gilbert Gardiner.

Tuvalu is a short favourite in the last at Caulfield after thumping the opposition at Warrnambool last start. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

Herald Sun form analyst Gilbert Gardiner previews every race for Saturday’s Caulfield meeting. Plus, Nick Quinn’s Mailbag.

BEST BET

TUVALU (R9 No.2 – $1.95)

VALUE BET

UNDER MY SPELL (R6 No.2 – $8)

EARLY QUADDIE

1, 6, 8, 11/3, 7, 8/3, 4, 7, 8/2, 6

$100 flexi for 104 per cent

BIG6

3, 4, 7/2, 6/2, 5, 7/1, 2, 5, 10/6, 7, 11/2

$100 flexi for 46 per cent

QUADDIE

Race 6: 2, 5, 7, 13

Race 7: 1, 2, 4, 5, 10

Race 8: 6, 7, 11

Race 9: 2

$100 flexi for 166 per cent

RACE 1 (12:40PM): BENCHMARK 70 (1400M)

THRONTARI (5) got too far out of her ground last Saturday when fourth at The Valley. Drawn one off the rail and runner-up at Caulfield three starts back. EL PATRONESS (1) the class filly in the field and despite resuming at 1400m the one-time Oaks favourite must be considered. Finished third on debut last August at 1400m. Former Kiwi filly LET’S SAY GRACE (6) showed nice ability to come from second last in the run to win a Tauranga maiden last December. MINOUCHE (4) should appreciate the jump in distance after running second last start at Caulfield. Building a nice record with a Newcastle win wedged between a pair of runners-up cheques.

SUGGESTED BET: THRONATRI win

TAB MARKET MOVER: Let’s Say Grace $5-$4

RACE 2 (1.15PM): BENCHMARK 70 (1800M)

WORTHILY (11) put in a nice Australian debut at Flemington last start. Worked through the gears nicely to pass a few in the straight after settling near last in the run. The English import – a winner back home at 2000m and runner-up at 2400m – suited at 1800m than the 1400m pipe-opener. PERENNIAL looks over the odds as a track and distance winner and proven second-up performer (3: 0-2-0). ANGEL ROCK (8) has won two of the past four starts and with her prominent racing style should be at the pointy end late in the race. VARDANI (6) disappointed last start at Sandown Lakeside but form prior good enough to bank a cheque. Take on trust.

SUGGESTED BET: WORTHILY (5) win

TAB MARKET MOVER: Flandersrain $11-$10, Worthily $3.50-$2.60

RACE 3 (1.50PM): BENCHMARK 78 (2400M)

BRILLIANT VENTURE (3) won impressively at Caulfield last start in easier company. Drawn to get a gun run and no reason why the five-year-old cannot repeat the dose. SALTO ANGEL (7) placed behind Brilliant Venture and SWELTER MAGIC (6) the past two starts. LOST IMPACT (8) won three starts back when drawn outside horses as opposed to the past two – fifth and third – from barrier one. Improver? MISS FIVE HUNDRED (9) demolished a benchmark 64 field at Sandown Lakeside by 3.8 lengths last start. A repeat performance for the in-form Peter Gelagotis stable would see the consistent Dundeel mare be around the mark.

SUGGESTED BET: BRILLIANT VENTURE (3) each-way

TAB MARKET MOVER: Look Closely $13-$9.50

RACE 4 (2.25PM): GROUP 3 CHAIRMAN’S STAKES (1000M)

RENOSU (4) the best of the exposed brigade with 1000m Listed and Group 3 placings last campaign. Drawn well and with even luck the striking Exceed And Excel colt should be hard to hold out. NEW HAMPSHIRE (3), a $600,000 yearling purchase and half-brother to Levendi and Wu Gok, has admirers as a colt to watch. EQUIVOCAL (7) must overcome a tricky draw but otherwise primed to run a big race for trainers Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young. Respect the stable-jockey combination on SEBONACK, while KIKO should be finishing the race off hard. MRS PATMORE and NANAGUI next best.

SUGGESTED BET: NEW HAMPSHIRE (3) each-way

TAB MARKET MOVER: Sebonack $5.50-$4.40-$4.60

Unflinching is aiming to stay unbeaten when he lines up in the Manfred Stakes. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

RACE 5 (3.05PM): GROUP 3 MANFRED STAKES (1200M)

UNFLINCHING (6) has the fitness and speed edge on major opposition here. Boasts a perfect record – three from three – and still very much untapped. Steep rise in grade but has been winning races like a genuine Group-calibre sprinter. Ciaron Maher and David Eustace-trained stablemates GENERATION (2) and MARINE ONE (5) will be poised to strike should Unflinching not run out a strong 1200m. Dual acceptor PAULELE (1) likely to run in Sydney instead. LINAS LEGEND (8) has built a nice profile – two wins and three placing from five starts – and if they go too hard in front will be charging late.

SUGGESTED BET: UNFLINCHING (6) win

TAB MARKET MOVER: Paulele $2.90-$3-$2.80

RACE 6 (3.45PM): BENCHMARK 78 (1400M)

UNDER MY SPELL (2) goes on top in what will be a character-building start to the Quaddie. The mare in foal drops sharply in grade and against her own sex after finishing third taking on the boys last start in a benchmark 100. Solid tempo critical for the backmarker to show her best. GALGANI (1) won impressively last start at The Valley. DIVINE DIOSA (7) and GROOVY KINDA LOVE (8) not without claims. Backmarker VESPERTINE (5) handled an equally bad barrier two starts back to finish second at Caulfield. Frontrunner NO PUZZLE (13) and GLOVES ARE OFF (14) the best roughies.

SUGGESTED BET: UNDER MY SPELL (2) each-way

TAB MARKET MOVER: No bets or movements of note

RACE 7 (4.25PM): BENCHMARK 100 (1800M)

HO HO KHAN (2) finished over the top of a similar field last start at Caulfield to win impressively. Will need luck at the right time to find clear galloping room but worth following. Drops back 2000m and should appreciate apprentice jockey Tahlia Hope’s two kilogram allowance. DARK DREAM (1) was runner-up to Ho Ho Khan two starts back and then came out to win at Flemington. Chris Waller has a nice hand in the race with DESERT ICON (10) and PANCHO (5). Frontrunner HOLBEIN (4) has won twice at Caulfield previously including the Listed Lord Stakes. ZIEGFELD (3) drops in grade and proven second-up (2:1-1-0). One for the multiples.

SUGGESTED BET: HO HO KHAN win

TAB MARKET MOVER: Odeon $51-$61-$26-$31

RACE 8 (5.05PM): BENCHMARK 78 (1100M)

EVENING GLORY (7) nailed by talented sprinter Scorched Earth last start at Caulfield. A repeat of that performance wins this race. Gone 12 months without a win but equally not finished worse than fifth the past eight starts. THE GARDEN (11) won three of five starts last campaign including a two-length maiden victory first-up. Lightly-raced gelding with upside. GOLD SPARK (6) has spelled more than he’s raced the past couple of years yet still managed to win three of his past four starts. ROSE QUARTZ (15) shooting for a hat-trick of wins, while MELBA STORM (14) capable of a big run with luck from the wide draw.

SUGGESTED BET: EVENING GLORY each-way

TAB MARKET MOVER: The Garden $5.50-$4.40

Evening Glory can end a long drought at Caulfield. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

RACE 9 (5.40PM): BENCHMARK 78 (1600M)

TUVALU (2) will just about anchor every Caulfield quadrella in Australia on Saturday. Sharp three-length win last start at Warrnambool and runner-up – Zoltan – franked the form winning nicely at The Valley last week. Tuvalu has only been beaten twice (by I’m Thunderstruck) in six starts. SAVANNAH CLOUD (8) has form around Marabi and Gentleman Roy. Definite place claims. NICOLINI VITO has claims on the minor money also, having won the past two starts. LOVEPLANET (6) and SWISS HERO (3) the best roughies for trifecta and first four players.

SUGGESTED BET: TUVALU (2) win

TAB MARKET MOVER: Tuvalu $2.20-$1.95

NICK QUINN’S MAILBAG

TAB tipping expert Nick Quinn gives his suggested bets for the main races at Caulfield and Randwick.

BEST BET: TUVALU (Caulfield, R9 No. 2)

VALUE BET: MIGHTYBEEL (Randwick, R10 No.6)

LAY OF THE WEEK: MALKOVICH (Randwick, R4 No.1)

MANFRED STAKES (1200M)

CAULFIELD, R5, 3.05PM

Paulele has accepted for both the Manfred Stakes at Caulfield and the Eskimo Prince Stakes at Randwick.

He has been installed an early favourite in both races and I anticipate that he will be the one to beat wherever he goes.

Should Paulele not run, we have a lovely contingency bet in Generation, who has won three of his five career starts, including the Group 3 Red Anchor Stakes on Cox Plate day.

Unflinching is another galloper with terrific upside. He defied a late betting drift to win in dominant style at the Valley on January 22 and can again step up in grade.

THE TIP: PAULELE

HERALD SUN HCP (1400M)

CAULFIELD, R6, 3.45PM

An open race with Divine Diosa and Groovy Kinda Love heading the market at $4.80.

Divine Diosa caught the eye when second at Flemington behind the progressive Nicolini Vito while Groovy Kinda Love is a model of consistency having placed in 11 of her 13 career starts.

Despite the wide draw, I am sticking with Vespertine, who was nosed out at Flemington at big odds before winning well at Caulfield last start.

THE TIP: VESPERTINE each-way

INGLIS MILLENNIUM (1100M)

RANDWICK, R6, 3.25PM

Sejardan maintained his unbeaten record with a last-to-first win at Rosehill in the Golden Gift last November over this 1100m trip.

He looks a genuine contender for the Golden Slipper, where he is currently $11 and on the third line of betting.

He opened at $3 and eased slightly to $3.60 after drawing gate nine. With Jason Collett in the saddle, he shapes as the one to beat.

There has been early support for Paris Dior, backed from $5 into $4.20, after her impressive win at Canterbury last start.

El Padrino, to be ridden by Jamie Kah, broke her maiden in the Inglis Nursery last December and is another with claims.

THE TIP: PARIS DIOR each-way

ESKIMO PRINCE STAKES (1200M)

RANDWICK, R8, 4.45PM

Punters wasted no time in backing Paulele to make a winning return to the track with the James Cummings-trained colt firming from $4.20 into $2.80.

For mine, the $2.80 still holds strong appeal. I expect him to start shorter and he is the one to beat.

He loves Randwick, having won all four career starts at the venue.

Converge enjoyed a terrific winter campaign and shapes as a danger.

Hilal will be better over more ground but is worth including in the multiples.

THE TIP: PAULELE

Originally published as Raceday focus: Tips, analysis and best bets for Caulfield on Saturday