Raceday focus: Brad Davidson’s extended preview & tips for Randwick (Kensington)

Sky Racing form analyst Brad Davidson runs the rule over every race, with TAB market movers and suggested bets for the Kensington track meeting at Randwick.

Sky Racing form analyst Brad Davidson runs the rule over every race, with TAB market movers and suggested bets for the Kensington track meeting at Randwick.

RANDWICK (KENSINGTON)

Track: Good 4. Rail: True.

R1 (11.40am): #THERACES HCP (1000m)

OVERVIEW: I thought the winner would come from Spaceboy or Minted. I don’t think there is a lot between them. I liked the improvement Minted showed from his first to his second trial and he attacked the line very strongly in the second trial after only getting out very late. The last 600m split of that trial (32.5s) was the quickest for the six 735m heats on the day (.2s quicker than Aeecee Beau and .3s quicker than Duenna). The winner of the heat, Discharged has also finished a good third behind Reloaded since. Spaceboy has the form on the board with a second to Tassort on debut and then a third in the Magic Millions 2YO Wyong race. His two trials this time in have both been sharp. Splintex did beat Minted in a trial and then ran well on debut, while Badia will run on late.

BETTING ADVICE: MINTED over SPACEBOY.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Spaceboy $4.60-$3 ($1,000 @ $4.60, $1,000 @ $3.80, $2,000 @ $3.40, $1,000 @ $3.40, $6,000 @ $3, $472 @ $3, $300 @ $3)

LATEST BETTING: TAB FIXED ODDS

R2 (12.15pm): EVENTS BY ATC HCP (1000m)

I’ve always had plenty of time for Heart Conquered and his win before a break proved to me he isn’t just a wet tracker. He ran super time there and his recent trial was super. He looks hard to beat. Revenire has a great record at this trip (top two five of six starts at 1000m) and he can park off what looks a strong speed and should be sprouting wings late. Brook Magic has a good fresh record but was a touch disappointing last prep. The blinkers come off and her trials have been OK leading in. Exceltic will be finding the line late.

BETTING ADVICE: HEART CONQUERED to win.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Heart Conquered $3.20-$2.40 ($450 @ $3.20, $1,000 @ $2.80, $1,250 @ $2.60)

R3 (12.50pm): TAB HIGHWAY HCP (1400m)

OVERVIEW: It looks a two-horse race as the market suggests between We Concur and Al Mah Haha. I’ll lean the way of We Concur. He should get a good run behind the speed and he is the horse on the way up. He should run 1400m and he is in the right stable. Al Mah Haha has been brave when wide at his past two starts and he will appreciate the 1400m a lot more than 1200m. He did beat Noble Boy two starts back. Pierino looks best of the rest.

BETTING ADVICE: WE CONCUR to win.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: We Concur $3.70-$3.20 ($342 @ $3.90, $400 @ $3.50, $800 @ $3.20)

R4 (1.25pm): ATC HERITAGE CENTRE TOURS HCP (1800m)

OVERVIEW: Competitive race. Welsh Legend wasn’t far away in the Adrian Knox last start and the winner of that race finished fourth in the Oaks at her following start. Amangiri also came out of that race (good thing beaten since). I like the way Nobu found the line last start off a slow tempo. He beat Vega, who has won well since. Fun Fact has been trapped wide without cover at his past two runs but I prefer him on wet ground, while Sondelon is a chance from the front if he runs out 1800m.

BETTING ADVICE: Leaning to WELSH LEGEND.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Fun Fact $6-$6.50-$6 ($600 @ $6.50, $350 @ $6)

Heart Conquered has trialled well and will be hard to beat in race two. Picture: AAP

R5 (2.05pm): TAB REWARDS HCP (1100m)

OVERVIEW: Messy speed map here and luck in running will be crucial for Kapajack who will be caught behind a wall of horses you would imagine turning for home from the inside draw. He has all the upside here but interestingly to note his overall time last start was about five lengths slower than Zonk’s on the same day despite his race being run some 10 lengths quicker to the 600m mark of his race. Zonk hasn’t been seen since that day where she bled but she has to have a huge chance on that above information alone, while Catesby will be closing off strongly if they decide to go here over the 1000m race. Miss Exfactor also has claims first-up for the new stable.

BETTING ADVICE: KAPAJACK to win.

R6 (2.45pm): KENSINGTON HCP (1300m)

OVERVIEW: Open race but I think Vinnie Power can run a race. Her trials have been good enough coming into this and she should get a good run on speed. Last prep she beat Sexy Eyes, who won a Group 3 later that campaign, and also beat home Sky Boy as well. She should roll forward and prove hard to catch here. Strome was the only horse to settle further back than fourth and score at Gosford last start, although the tempo was strong to suit. Jen Rules comes out of the fillies Group races of late and I’m just querying the form a touch on them. Shokora has trialled well and she had form around Bella Martini, Bring Me Roses and Twitchy Frank as a three-year-old. She did win a race at Moonee Valley last prep as well. Palmateer looked good at the trials but she always trials well and her race form is just fair.

BETTING ADVICE: VINNIE POWER and SHOKORA the value.

R7 (3.25pm): TAB.COM.AU HCP (1250m)

OVERVIEW: Very tough race. Passage Of Time had no luck first-up and with any he beats Top Striker there. Having said that, his second-up record isn’t as good and does he want further now? You could make a case for most of these. Murillo never got a crack at them first-up, Top Striker beat a lot of these fresh, Problem Solver was wide without cover fresh and should improve, Noble Joey runs a big race from the front, Fragonard flies fresh and has trialled well, while Star Of Monsoon didn’t corner well at Gosford but came again late. Confused yet?

BETTING ADVICE: Leaning to PASSAGE OF TIME but a heap of chances here.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Passage Of Time $5-$4.40

Passage Of Time didn’t have much luck first-up. Picture: AAP

R8 (4.05pm): MAY HCP (1400m)

OVERVIEW: Very deep race with quite a few chances. It’s hard to go past Star Of The Seas, he was pretty good last start when wide throughout in a sprint home. Gate one is the knock at this time of the day (I’m expecting the track to be playing off fence by now so he will need a good ride). Renewal bounced back to form in Melbourne last start, Man From Uncle had no luck first-up, while Spring Charlie (held up) and Turnberry (four wide no cover) were both unlucky in the Provincial Championships Final. Throw in Tip Top, who flies fresh (but he is normally in shorter races first-up?), and Articus, who has been trialling well and it’s a deep race.

BETTING ADVICE: Leaning to STAR OF THE SEAS.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Renewal $6-$6.50 ($1,000 x $3,000 e/w @ $6.50/$2.40, $2,000 @ $2.40 PLACE)

R9 (4.45pm): ATC HCP (1550m)

OVERVIEW: Happy to make a case for Maktoum at the double-figure odds in the last. He was a month-and-a-half between runs at Warwick Farm and rising in trip when he covered ground, hit the front and then knocked up. He draws well here to chime in late down the outside and he can only improve off that. Agassi is going from strength to strength and his winning time was 1.7s quicker than Pelorus Jack on the same day (most of that was race shape but he still had a quicker last 600m than Pelorus Jack). Bobbing should relish the step up to the mile and watch for him late, while Mushaireb did beat Maktoum home first-up and only has to reproduce that to run well again.

BETTING ADVICE: MAKTOUM each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Agassi $3.50-$3.30 ($300 @ $3.50 TWICE)

TURF TALK

Ray Thomas amd Matt Jones discuss their best bets for the weekend.

MJ: The Kensington meeting at Randwick sees many horses returning and I think there’s some value on the card. I’m looking forward to seeing Charge in the seventh race. He came up short in a Group 1 race last start but should be primed for a big run fresh in a Benchmark race. What’s your best of the day?

RT: Charge did trial well the other day and looks hard to beat but I’m with Passage Of Time in that race. He was very good but unlucky first-up at Randwick.

MJ: I’m worried about his second-up form, though. Anyway, are you looking forward to Kapajack’s return? I think he can win the fifth race for Team Hawkes. He’s an undeniable talent and I know you like him.

RT: I’m with Kapajack. I thought he trialled really well behind his stablemate Heart Conquered. I think the Hawkes stable can lead in a brace of winners as Heart Conquered is my best of the day in the second.

MJ: I’m tipping Heart Conquered in that race too but I’m very worried about Brook Magic in that race because she flies first-up and is a real 1000m specialist. The eighth race looks very open, so I’m going with Turnberry. He’s such a tough horse and this time won’t have to work as hard from a wide gate. Who have you got?

RT: Agree, arguably the toughest race of the day. Turnberry is a terrific chance even though I couldn’t find him in my top four, which shows how open this race is. Star Of The Seas had zero luck last start when trapped wide from the jump but Saturday he’s got the inside gate and he should settle closer and be hard to beat. I’m also very wary of Renewal in the same race.

MJ: The two-year-old race to open the card also looks fairly open with no horse standing out. I’ll tip Spaceboy but without a heap of confidence because there’s a stack of horses who have claims. Can you be a bit more confident about your tip than me?

RT: Spaceboy has trialled brilliantly twice and I think he can win but the trial efforts of Covert Ops, Aeecee Beau, Dream Circle and Minted, in particular, have been eye-catching. I’m banking on Spaceboy’s race experience giving him the edge.