Raceday focus: Best bets, inside mail for Warwick Farm

With the benefit of a solid first-up second, this expensive son of Snitzel is ready to ‘peak’ at Warwick Farm, according to Matt Jones. BEST BETS, INSIDE MAIL

The James Cummings-trained Deference can make amends for a luckless run last start by winning at Warwick Farm on Wednesday. Photo: Grant Guy

Form analyst Matt Jones is confident that a Snowden racing colt will get his supporters off the a flying start in the opening event.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

WARWICK FARM

BEST BET

Race 1, No. 7: MOUNT FUJI

This is surely the day for this very expensive colt who put the writing on the wall first-up. He just needs to handle the ground and he’s the one to beat.

NEXT BEST

Race 4, No. 3: DEFERENCE

This is a competitive little race but he should have won last start after suffering terrible luck in the straight before storming home.

VALUE BET

Race 2, No. 8: GOOD OMENS

She’s by So You Think so she should like a wet track and, off her latest trial, she looks good value at around $7 here for the country’s leading trainer.

QUADDIE

Leg 1: 1, 3, 5, 6

Leg 2: 1, 3, 5

Leg 3: 1, 2, 3, 6

Leg 4: 2, 9, 16

TRAINER TO WATCH

Bjorn Baker has very good hopes in Brazen Gem, Night Of Power and Dance who comes off a last start win. Savvy Valentino and Bold And Wild are his other hopes.

Jason Collett can take out the Jockeys Challenge at Warwick Farm on Wednesday. Photo: Mark Evans/Getty Images

JOCKEY TO WATCH

Jason Collett can ride the most winners today considering he’s on Mount Fuji, Adulting, Dance, Brazen Gem and Blaze A Trail.

INSIDE MAIL FOR WARWICK FARM: MATT JONES

RACE 1

Mount Fuji didn’t get the clearest run in the straight when first-up here last time out and is an obvious improver today. It’s well known that he cost $2.8 million so the pressure is again right on him to win. Beachhaven was in that race and also will do better this time. They’ve had to take their time with Ahso who should handle the wet track on debut and the stable has already thrown the blinkers on so it points to a forward showing. Head Legislator faded late when leading last time but he did a heap of work to get to the front so that was a forgive run and he’s third-up now. Is the wet track a query through?

BET: MOUNT FUJI TO WIN

RACE 2

Flexible ran better than most punters thought she would last start when doing her best work late over 1300m last time. She drops back in trip which would be a little query considering she was needed all of the 1300m last time but it’s going to be a testing track today which negates the drop back to 1200m. Look for Adulting and Amore to be coming home late on their debuts. Good Omens beat home Adulting in a trial but wasn’t asked for nearly as much effort over the final 300m so she looks ready to debut in good fashion. Stablemate Big Angel just needs to start evenly and she’s right in this.

BET: GOOD OMENS TO WIN

RACE 3

Kaapfever drops in grade and gets back onto his home track where he has an excellent record and the apprentice’s claim is another tick for him in a tough staying test. La Grisa also drops in grade and finished in front of Kaapfever last time out but has a 2kg disadvantage this time which is going to be influential which is why I think Secretly Awesome has his work cut out with 59.5kg even if he’s in top form and a gear change (bubble cheeker) has occurred. Yuralla Boy only has provincial form but that can stack up in a staying midweek races and he handles the wet. He was unlucky not to win last time at Newcastle after getting held up for a while in the straight and the 2200m isn’t an issue.

BET: QUINELLA 2, 3

Kaapfever will appreciate a drop in grade and a return to his home track. Photo: Grant Guy

RACE 4

Night Flyer resumes and she’s won twice on heavy ground and placed three times from four fresh runs. She’s drawn well and has performed in Saturday grade last time in so she’s obviously up to this. Deference should’ve won last start after getting held up at a crucial point before storming home so he deserves another chance despite a poor strike rate. Stablemate Damaged is now a gelding and has a top fresh record. Accelerato gets conditions to suit and has never been out of the placings second-up. This is a competitive one with Dance also coming into it off a top run.

BET: DEFERENCE TO WIN

RACE 5

Bjorn Baker is dropping Brazen Gem back in grade off a pretty good run last start after coming out of a wide gate and not having anything go her way. This is her race to win now. Irish Angel just got run down here last start because she had to do things a little tougher than the winner who is also a promising type so she too is a contender. Aeecee Power won at Canterbury last start off a year break and they don’t do that often so she’s in good order. Don’t forget the top weight Moana Jewel who is going to start overs.

BET: BRAZEN GEM TO WIN

RACE 6

Night Of Power is a gelding this time in and he’s racing better and is peaking third-up in a race that’s not very strong. Get The Idea is a genuine miler who almost beat his more fancied stablemate here last start and he’s bred to handle this wet ground. He looked strong through line last start with the blinkers off. Mubariz is now third-up and looking for the mile after coming home in good style over 1400m three weeks ago and he’s won at this track and is set to start at juicy odds for a Waller runner.

BET: MUBARIZ TO WIN

Leading trainer Chris Waller has a good contender in Mubariz. Photo by Mark Evans/Getty Images

RACE 7

Blaze A Trail won his two races well for new trainer Matthew Vella last time in after falling short for Team Snowden in some top Group juvenile races last autumn and he trialled up in good fashion on a heavy track leading into this and has found Jason Collett to ride him. Escaped will be looking the winner for some time in this race where he can lead the field into the straight from a good gate but is he as good second-up? Exceltic is trying to win over 1300m for the first time so may struggle late while Blondeau needs to handle the wet track to win.

BET: BLAZE A TRAIL TO WIN