Raceday focus: Best bets, inside mail for Kembla Grange program

Eleven Eleven has form analyst Shayne O’Cass’s seal of approval to the make it back-to-back wins but the two-year-old is far from his best on Kembla Grange card. BEST BETS, INSIDE MAIL

In a perfect world, trainer Greg Hickman would love to have a runner in both the $14 million The TAB Everest (1200m) and Magic Millions 3YO Guineas within the next four months.

He is already halfway there with All Aged Stakes winner Pierata holding a slot in the world’s biggest show on turf at Royal Randwick on October 19.

Now he has to get Eleven ­Eleven ready for next year and do what Pierata did up north in 2018.

January is long way off but on Thursday at Kembla the son of Fastnet Rock takes another step along the path back to the Gold Coast, where it all began.

Hickman, who is renowned for having an eagle eye at the yearling sales, paid the not insignificant sum of $230,000 for Eleven Eleven at the Magic Millions auction.

It was considerably less than the sale-topping $900,000 paid for the gelding’s close relation Bull Point at the Gold Coast some years ­earlier and the reported $50 million price tag of another shared member, Criterion.

Eleven Eleven, an impressive winner of his first trials with Hickman confidante Tommy Berry in the saddle, was an early contender for this year’s Magic Millions 2YO Classic but missed the cut despite two very encouraging runs in Brisbane to open his career.

“He was up there (as a Magic Millions contender) early but Tommy always just had a little query on him,’’ Hickman said.

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Thoroughbred action in NSW heads to Kembla Grange with eight races on Thursday.

BEST BETS WITH SHAYNE O’CASS: KEMBLA GRANGE

BEST BET: EMERGENT (Race 2, No. 2)
Very handsome half-brother to Domesday who has been unlucky at times and perhaps not altogether happy on some wet tracks here and there, but is talented way beyond the provincials.

NEXT BEST: SUBEDAR (Race 5, No. 6)
Sepoy son of Virage De Fortune who has hit the line strongly at his past two trials, giving the solid impression that 1300m on debut on the big track is going to be tailor-made for him.

VALUE BET: ELEVEN ELEVEN (Race 3, No. 6)
Finally showed his real ability with a powerful three-length win over this same track and distance at his most recent outing. Drawn out this time but can sit off and come late.

BEST EXOTIC: QUADDIE
Race 5: 6. Race 6: 2, 7. Race 7: 9. Race 8: 3, 5, 8, 10, 12.

TRAINER TO FOLLOW: JOHN O’SHEA

Has three runners at Kembla and could very well win with any or all of them. Chief among those is the progressive Emergent in the opener.

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“It has taken a little bit of time and we might still not even be there yet but he has come a long way lately.

“He has always had reasonable ability but he is still only a baby. He is probably going to be a better three-year-old.’’

Eleven Eleven aims to make the successful transition from maiden to Class 1 in Thursday’s Mount Kembla Handicap (1000m) after a com­prehensive three-length win over the same track and distance two weeks ago.

“It was a good win and the time says it was a good win and there is good form around too, but I just don’t want to get over rapt in him at the moment,’’ Hickman said.

“He still needs to learn to get back in the field and to get home, if that is the way he can race somewhere along the line, so we can get him up to 1400m.’’

Hickman is no longer counting the months until his Everest quest. It’s getting down to “days” and his charge Pierata couldn’t be in better shape as the big dance approaches.

“He’s enormous,’’ Hickman said. “I am really happy with him. I have got him down to trial at Warwick Farm on the ninth of August.

“It’s probably a touch early. He won’t get to the trial and say ‘hey, this is me’, it’ll just be used as ­another track gallop.

“It’s a funny one. There is the pressure of having a horse like this, but it’s nice having the pressure. I wouldn’t swap it for the world.’’

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Form analyst Shayne O’Cass has made Emergent his best bet.

INSIDE MAIL WITH SHAYNE O’CASS: KEMBLA GRANGE

RACE 1 

Deelbraka is ready to peak third-up after improving runs to open the winter campaign, both at Kembla over 1200m and 1400m respectively. The son of Dundeel has been runner-up in three of four runs at the venue and placed in five of eight overall. French import Agosto has the Winx connection of Chris Waller and Hugh Bowman. Won on debut over 2200m in France then fourth to Attorney at Calais in only other run. By the same sire as Enable. Disco Mo has been costly to follow but is best of the rest.

BET: DEELBRAKA WIN; EXACTA 3 TO BEAT 1.

RACE 2 

Emergent, a striking half-brother to Domesday, has been unlucky or stymied by wet tracks but got through it when runner-up at Warwick Farm last start. Third-up now on a good surface, he can finally show what genuine talent his has. Bound for better races. Proud Tradition is a Gooree gelding who hasn’t done much wrong in his three starts. Crying out for the 1400m now. Kentucky Award is a 5.8-length trial winner since her Kembla failure.

BET: EMERGENT WIN; EXACTA 2 TO BEAT 3; BOX TRIFECTA 2, 3, 6, 11.

RACE 3 

Eleven Eleven has always shown promise, which he finally delivered on when he won his 1000m maiden here two weeks ago by three lengths. Drawn out but trainer is happy to have sit off the speed and get into the race later. Progressive type. Drifter has come back in great shape with a win on the Acton followed by a second at Gosford. Should get a gun run. Starry has placed at both runs at this track and distance.

BET: ELEVEN ELEVEN WIN; EXACTA 6 TO BEAT 7.

RACE 4 

You Rang is a superbly bred son of Sebring and the first foal of the former Group 1-winning New Zealand 2YO of the Year, Ruud Awakening. Has been a hugely impressive winner of both Randwick trials but has to overcome an awkward draw. Stands out here. Waterhouse/Bott stablemate Escaped was a stylish winner of his first trial, less so in the one after that. Can figure. Leo caught the eye on debut.

BET: YOU RANG WIN; EXACTA 14 TO BEAT 2 AND 4 (BOXED); BOX TRIFECTA 1, 2, 4, 14.

RACE 5 

Subedar is a Godolphin first starter by Sepoy out of the two-time Group 1 winner Virage De Fortune. Has hit the line with purpose at his two most recent trials. Be strong late. Monstrosity has been costly for his backers in first two runs, finishing sixth each time. Step to 1300m may bring out his best. Caesura should be prominent throughout.

BET: SUBEDAR EACH-WAY; QUINELLA 4, 6.

RACE 6 

The Promise won his first two starts last campaign and was fourth at Randwick to Cyber Intervention after that. Had easy trial on June 17 then upped the ante with impressive heat win at Randwick. Go well. Snips has only missed a place once in his six appearances, including a last start win at Hawkesbury over this distance. Drawn perfectly, Kentucky Wildcat is trained by John O’Shea and is out of a sister to his own former Group 1 sprinter, Foxwedge.

BET: THE PROMISE WIN; DAILY DOUBLE 1ST LEG 7, 2ND LEG 5.

RACE 7 

Frascati Miss faded late last start but was coming back from two outstanding runs at 1900m to 1600m. Goes back up to 1900m and Tommy Berry is back on. Fast Train will be on the speed from the outset. Was beaten a nose at his only 2000m run here, so 1900m is sweet. The Iron Maiden is exactly that, winning her 113th start last Thursday.

BET: FRASCATI MISS EACH-WAY.

RACE 8 

Celtic Love came from a long way back to finish 0.3 of a length third to Nicci’s Gold at Rosehill on June 15 then whacked away admirably there two weeks later. Had an easy trial at Hawkesbury on July 15 to keep her up to the mark. Honest type. Betty Blooms is a lightly-raced three-year-old filly who toughed out her maiden win her over 1500m on the bog last start. Harder here but can keep progressing. Carambola races well at the venue.

BET: CELTIC LOVE EACH-WAY.