Raceday focus: Best bets and inside mail for Goulburn and Muswellbrook
Canberra trainer Luke Pepper is ready to notch his first winner of the new season at Goulburn with five-year-old El Nieto, and there’s plenty in his favour. BEST BETS, INSIDE MAIL.
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Luke Pepper has a target of wins this season – 34.
That’s because he’s trained 33 winners in the past two seasons and always tries to train at least one more at the end of each season with a team of around 30 horses.
El Nieto can be the Canberra trainer’s first winner for 2020/21 when he races at Goulburn on Friday in the sixth race over 1200m.
The Nicconi five-year-old ran second in his last start and that gave him the green light.
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“It was a bit of a throw at the stumps the other day because we weren’t too sure how he’d handle the heavy going at Gundagai and I thought the run was huge,” Pepper said.
“He was a bit slow away and had to work overtime to get to where he needed to be and he was tough on the line.
“He’s a horse that tries and he’ll be on top of the speed and he’s ticked the box of running well on a heavy track so I’m looking forward to this race.
“The only negative is that he’s going to carry a bit of a weight but he’s done that before so it shouldn’t be too much of a drama.”
SCROLL DOWN FOR MATT JONES’ BEST BEST AND INSIDE MAIL FOR GOULBURN AND MUSWELLBROOK
El Nieto does have an attractive racing pattern that usually sees him on the speed which is the right formula for heavy track racing.
“It’s always hard to make ground from the back on heavy tracks and there doesn’t seem to be a lot of pressure up front in this race so even though he’s drawn badly, I don’t think it will matter on a Heavy 10 track,” Pepper said.
“He’s a high-speed horse and 1200m is ideal for him because he can dictate and give a strong kick.”
Pepper, who turns 40 this month, has once again put his faith in young hoop Heni Ede, who has already won on El Nieto.
She will ride him out of barrier 11 and her claim gives him a winnable weight of 59kg.
Ede will let him roll across and let him take up a position.
“Heni is a great kid. She’s from Wagga. Unfortunately she broke her leg pretty badly as she was kicking off her career and it took a lot of recovery and rehab to get back,” Pepper said.
“I’ve had a lot of luck with her so far and this horse seems to run for her and the 3kg claim always helps too.”
Pepper also races Snowbrook and Tycoon Tily, if she gets a run, at Narrandera tomorrow.
Snowbrook is the stable’s leading contender on the day in the third race.
“She’s racing in great form. She got back after a poor start last time and that was the end of it for her,” Pepper said.
“I don’t think the gate (10) is an issue for her at the mile.
“She’s got a good turn of foot and has Blaike McDougall on so he’ll ride her well.”
MATT JONES’ BEST BETS
GOULBURN
BEST BET: EASY CAMPESE (Race 3, No.3)
He’s proved himself in town already and has been more than competitive at the provincials so this race is winnable and he’ll handle the track race in a good spot.
VALUE BET: BIZOU (Race 8, No.5)
She won impressively here two starts back and was close to winning at the provincials last start so she can win this race despite likely not starting favourite.
QUADDIE
Leg 1: 7
Leg 2: 1, 2, 3, 7
Leg 3: 1, 2, 7, 9
Leg 4: 4, 5
TRAINER TO WATCH
Richard and Michael Freedman have Celestial Doll, Alleluia and Love Tap running with the latter looking like their best hope.
MUSWELLBROOK
BEST BET: EMILETTE (Race 7, No.4)
With Star Raider scratched it opens the race up for Emilette who is and improver second-up off a good performance last start. The race sets up easier this time from the gate.
JOCKEY TO WATCH
Grant Buckley can start off the day well with the likes of SEAWISE and MEYISTI and end the day on a high with CHASING COMETS in the last race.
MATT JONES’ INSIDE MAIL
GOULBURN
RACE 5
Rathvilly Miss faces the easiest test of her career after going quite close to winning in town on a number of occasions and she even got to a Group 3 race in the autumn. This is her time to win despite getting a wide gate. Elani Rose won her lead-up trial but she’s still probably one to watch first. Wegee Lou is ready for 1300m third-up now and can be handier in the run which give her a chance and Deep Value has shown enough potential to do well here.
Bet: Rathvilly Miss to win
RACE 6
Love Tap really savaged the line on debut over the same trip two months ago and has had a quiet trial since but getting too far back will worry punters. El Nieto has a better racing pattern for a wet track and he will handle it. He just needs to be strong to the line. Pahang is third-up now off a win and he will be strong through the line. He just needs to handle the step up in grade but has previous form in town. It will be interesting to see how Cryfowl goes for new trainer Joe Cleary and he’s won six races to date.
Bet: Exacta 7, 1
RACE 7
He hasn’t won for a while and has only one win from 12 starts but Temple Run has placed on six occasions and this isn’t the hardest race he’s been in so he’s worth another chance in favourable track conditions. The wide gate is the issue. Jacquine Reward will give a good sight but will he start a little short? Scarleo resumes and while he handles a wet track it’s hard to win fresh on them at the moment and we haven’t seen him trial publicly. Royal Monarch won here last time and sets up well again.
Bet: Temple Run to win
RACE 8
Reoffender just got beat here last time and this is probably a slightly easier race and a wet track doesn’t hurt his chances of winning and he’ll race prominent and can win if he gets away well from a wide draw. Saint Ambrose drops in grade but lugging 62kg over 1600m is a tough ask. Bizou won here in good fashion two runs back and wasn’t disgraced in a better race last start so she’s got claims and is very fit for this trip. Look for Deanne Panya to lead on Halevi.
Bet: Bizou to win
MUSWELLBROOK
RACE 5
Jaja Chaboogie shoots for three-straight and barrier one here means she leads or sits behind the leader and gets every chance to keep on winning as Kris Lees takes her slowly through the grades. Dancing Dollar may challenge for the lead after doing it all the way at Tamworth last start as she looks to win a much tougher race. Mo’s Glory has won three races already and drops back in grade so comes right into it. Modernity has plenty of good form around her to ensure she’s a hope at her pet trip.
Bet: Quinella 4, 5
RACE 6
Can Nathan Doyle turn another horse around? He’s got Hard Faith debuting for his stable and gave her a winning trial and she’s won fresh before. Sophie’s Lass gets a much easier assignment today after struggling in heavy conditions last time. She won two runs back. Martinique more than matched up to Moccasin Miss two runs back at Wyong and the sting out of the ground suits. These look to be the top three hopes against some out of form horses.
Bet: Sophie’s Lass to win
RACE 7
Emilette ran second fresh last start off no trials and she gets a much better gate now and won’t have to work as hard to find the front which gives her more energy at the finish. It’s hard to believe Cosmic Haze has only won one race and her last run was in a Group 1 over 2400m so 1000m now is interesting. Crackerjack Kenny beat Peroxide Blonde by 3 ½ lengths last start and that form should hold up here. My Empire has fresh form but isn’t the same horse that broke its maiden by seven lengths at Hawkesbury in 2017.
Bet: Exacta 4, 5
RACE 8
Chasing Comets bolted in first-up and has drawn even better this time after some horrendous gates last preparation. As long as he’s not flat second-up he’s hard to beat. Adios Steve is already a consistent performer and there’s no reason why he won’t be battling out the finish and if whoever beats him will earn it. It might be a touch short for Casino Kid but he should be flashing home late. Stellar Blaze and Now Or Never are also good hopes in a very competitive field with seven last start winners if Love Tap races here and not at Goulburn.
Bet: Stellar Blaze each way