Race watch: Brad Davidson’s extended preview and tips for Rosehill Gardens
SKY Racing form analyst Brad Davidson runs the rule over every race, including speed maps and suggested bets for Coolmore Classic Day at Rosehill Gardens.
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SKY Racing form analyst Brad Davidson runs the rule over every race, including speed maps and suggested bets for Coolmore Classic Day at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.
LATEST BETTING: TAB FIXED ODDS
ROSEHILL GARDENS
Track: Soft 6. Rail: True position.
R1 (12.15pm): CATANACH’S HCP (1900m)
OVERVIEW: This is not a race I’m keen on at all, they can share these staying races. Zourkhan hasn’t won for a while but I liked his last-start effort and the trial since was eye-catching. Tamarack and All Too Soon are both lightly raced staying types on the way up. All Too Soon is two from two this prep but did get the favours last start (you could make a case to say Condor should have won if he wasn’t taken on early) and she has to take on the older horses here. Sizzling Bullet looks ready to improve sharply fourth up, while Quick Defence is flying but is up sharply in trip. Ready For Success can also jump out of the ground here third-up.
SPEED MAP: Good speed engaged with Cyrus Rocks, Nat King Cu and Ready For Success up there. The tempo should be solid.
DID YOU KNOW: All Too Soon is a $15 chance for the ATC Oaks.
SUGGESTED BET: My numbers are 5-8-9-4, but I really couldn’t steer you into anything with confidence.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Tamarack $3.90-$4.40, All Too Soon $4.80-$3.40 ($300 @ $4.60, $290 @ $4.60, $500 @ $4.20, $200 @ $4.20, $500 @ $3.80, $250 @ $3.40, $200 @ $3.40)
TOP TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS
ANALYSIS: COOLMORE CLASSIC PREVIEW
THRILL RIDE: MCEVOY STEPS IN TO STEER WINX IN GALLOP
R2 (12.55pm): SKY HIGH STAKES (2000m)
OVERVIEW: Libran trialled really well and then put in a slashing effort behind Winx first-up. He beat home Stampede there and he has a great second-up record. He looks the one to beat and I’m surprised he is not favourite. Stampede looks the leader in the race and he looks second pick getting out to 2000m. Get On The Grange is absolutely flying in weaker grade and he should appreciate the sting out of the track. He can park just off them and run well at big odds. They look the main three, while Auvray is ticking over well but may need longer.
SPEED MAP: Expect Stampede to lead with Mackintosh handy up in trip, Salsamour (blinkers on) and Get On The Grange won’t be far away. Speed should be even.
DID YOU KNOW: Libran has won three from five starts second-up, including the Kingston Town Stakes last prep. He was beaten a similar margin behind Winx first-up last campaign compared to first-up this prep.
SUGGESTED BET: LIBRAN to win at $3.70.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Libran $4-$3.70, Salsamor $10-$9
R3 (1.30pm): MAGIC NIGHT STAKES (1200m)
OVERVIEW: Sunlight is the Golden Slipper favourite for a reason and she should be taking care of this lot. She was very good first-up and had improvement to come. I thought Cristobal had plenty of improvement in the yard fresh and she looks a good trifecta horse along with Sweet Ava, who would have placed in the Sweet Embrace first-up if she drew a gate. Into The Abyss, Kara’s Hope, who knocked up fresh and can improve sharply here, and Setsuna look the other main ones to consider for multiples.
SPEED MAP: Strong speed expected with Terminology, Secret Lady and Setsuna all up there. Sunlight will probably try to slot in behind them and Sweet Ava can be much closer.
DID YOU KNOW: Sunlight will run here and then back up into the Golden Slipper. She won the Magic Millions 2YO Classic on a seven-day back up.
SUGGESTED BET: Trifecta 1st 1. 2nd: 8,10,11. 3rd: 2,6,8,10,11.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Sunlight $1.50 unchanged ($500 @ $1.50 TWICE, $400 @ $1.50, $300 @ $1.50, $250 @ $1.50 TWICE)
R4 (2.10pm): PAGO PAGO STAKES (1200m)
OVERVIEW: I’m respecting the dominant Blue Diamond winner in Written By but I just can’t get him as short as $2 here. As a result, I think Spin represents good each-way value at $6.50 with TAB. He was the ONLY horse to make ground on the rail at Randwick on March 3 and the inside was several lengths inferior to the rest of the track. He gets the blinkers on and probably needs to win this to make the Golden Slipper field, too. I want to also have something small on Virtual Insanity at big odds. I loved the way he attacked the line first-up over 1000m and I wouldn’t be shocked if he jumps out of the ground second-up at 1200m here. Written By is a terrific chance and probably top pick just on form, but I have to take him on from a price perspective and I rate him closer to a $3 chance here. He has drawn well but I just want to see him do it against these Sydney horses before taking $2 about him in a race like this.
SPEED MAP: Solid speed here with Chabreet and Irukandji likely to take it up. Roosevelt, Written By and Ragged Rascal (blinkers on) shouldn’t be far away.
DID YOU KNOW: Encryption (won the Black Opal) is the only horse from seven subsequent starters from the Blue Diamond to finish in the top three at their next start. Those seven subsequent starters did finish fifth or worse in the Blue Diamond, though.
SUGGESTED BET: Main play SPIN each-way at $6.50. Something small on VIRTUAL INSANITY at $14+ to win as well.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Written By $2 unchanged ($500 @ $2, $200 @ $2), Roosevelt $12-$9.50, Virtual Insanity $18-$15
R5 (2.50pm): MAURICE MCCARTEN STAKES (1100m)
OVERVIEW: Nieta always races very well fresh and her two recent trials have been eye-catching to say the least. She would have been a good thing from a better gate but she still looks hard to beat all the same. She is just so well weighted and the only time she has been beaten first-up was to the country’s best sprinter in Redzel last prep. The only concern is the map and she probably gives them a decent start here. The danger could come from Sprightly Lass, who is a progressive mare that will be up on speed and should give a kick. Hieroglyphics is knocking on the door, while Secret Trail normally runs well fresh. Gibraltar Girl should find this a bit easier than her past couple, while Dothraki is capable but hasn’t won for 882 days or 19 starts.
SPEED MAP: Speed should be solid with Sprightly Lass, Isorich, Dothraki and Top Striker up there.
DID YOU KNOW: Sprightly Lass will carry just 1kg less than Nieta but would be getting 10.5kg off that horse if this was a true handicap.
SUGGESTED BET: NIETA to win.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Nieta $4-$3.20 ($1,000 @ $4, $300 @ $3.60, $200 @ $3.60, $450 @ $3.40, $200 @ $3.20 TWICE), Sprightly Lass $5.50-$4.80 ($200 @ $5.50)
R6 (3.30pm): PHAR LAP STAKES (1500m)
OVERVIEW: This is not a race I have a firm opinion on and it’s hard to line up the Victorian form with the Sydney form. Shumookh is top pick but I can’t dive into the short quote and the race she comes through, the Surround Stakes, didn’t rate that highly. Muraaqeb and Holy Snow bring strong form lines from Victoria, while Renewal is on the way up but has to be a slight query at 1500m. Calculated is capable but comes here fresh at 1500m, while Hiyaam and Octabello are also worth thought for multiples. Paret has ability too on his day.
SPEED MAP: Shumookh should get control here with Renewal potentially going forward. Speed doesn’t look strong.
DID YOU KNOW: Holy Snow will wear blinkers for the first time.
SUGGESTED BET: SHUMOOKH on top but I can’t get involved at the short price.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Muraaqeb $9-$7 ($300 x $200 e/w @ $7.50/$2.40), Renewal $5-$6 ($250 @ $5.50, $1,000 @ $5)
R7 (4.10pm): COOLMORE CLASSIC (1500m)
OVERVIEW: There is something special about these Group 1 mares races. They are always so open and you can make a case for 8-10 horses, which makes for fantastic betting, and also a fantastic quaddie opportunity. I found it very tough to dissect but the two equal top picks for me are Dixie Blossoms and Egg Tart. Both are coming off outstanding first-up efforts and Dixie Blossoms won well, while Egg Tart had no luck whatsoever and should have won the Liverpool City Cup. Dixie Blossoms is a better horse at Randwick but her record isn’t as bad as it looks here. Heavens Above won this race last year and I reckon she is going as well, if not a touch better, this autumn. Her last 200m first-up was very encouraging. Silent Sedition rebounded to form second-up and also has a tremendous winning chance. Many good judges are coming up with Raiment as the weighted horse this year and she does meet Dixie Blossoms 4.5kg better off from running second to her last start. She did win well third-up last year but my query is how much improvement she has left and whether she needs it really wet. Oregon’s Day is worth thought for quaddies along with Alizee, who just knocked up late in the Surround but is very classy.
SPEED MAP: Speed looks solid with Francaletta, Silent Sedition, Daysee Doom, Prompt Response and Flippant up there.
DID YOU KNOW: Silent Sedition was trapped wide without cover in this race last year and only went down in the last stride to Heaven’s Above.
SUGGESTED BET: Extremely tough race. If you wanted to play 10 units on the race here is how I would do it — 4 units EGG TART to win, 3 units DIXIE BLOSSOMS to win, 2 unit SILENT SEDITION to win, 1 unit HEAVENS ABOVE to win.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Dixie Blossoms $7-$6.50 ($500 @ $7 TWICE), Egg Tart $7-$8- $6.50 ($400 @ $8, $300 @ $7.50, $200 @ $7.50 TWICE, $518 x $500 e/w @ $6.50/$2.55, $300 @ $6.50, $200 @ $6.50), Eckstein $26-$21, Bring Me Roses $17-$15
R8 (4.50pm): AJAX STAKES (1500m)
OVERVIEW: I want to make a good case here for Life Less Ordinary. I know he is a middle-distance horse but his fresh record is really good. Two preps ago he won over 1800m fresh in Melbourne and then last prep first-up I’m convinced he beats Comin’ Through if there was any tempo at all in the 1400m event at Randwick. He has trialled superbly and I think he is a great each-way gamble at $12. Tom Melbourne hasn’t won for a while and he cops a bad rap from punters. The truth is he should have probably won his past two fresh runs and he was a good thing beaten first-up at 1400m last prep here and had no luck first-up the preparation before in Melbourne. The natural query is he tends to find one better but he has trialled very well. Comin’ Through, Interlocuter and Prized Icon are all capable, while the in-form Cellarman isn’t hopeless either.
SPEED MAP: Arbeitsam should lead with Kingsguard the other on-pace runner. Arbeitsam should roll along at an even tempo.
DID YOU KNOW: It’s been 729 days or 19 starts since Tom Melbourne’s last win.
SUGGESTED BET: LIFE LESS ORDINARY each-way at $12 my main play of the day. I think he is a $7 chance here.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Tom Melbourne $5-$4.60 ($436 @ $5, $250 @ $4.60)
R9 (5.30pm): TAB.COM.AU HCP (1300m)
OVERVIEW: Tough race to finish the day with many chances but I want to make a case for a few at big odds in Most Exalted and Generalissimo in particular. The former contested the Mudgee Country Championships Qualifier in extremely heavy rain and you can forget he went around there. I’m treating this like a first-up run and his last couple of fresh runs have been outstanding. Generalissimo was just in the worst part of the track last start and I’m expecting a big turn around here. His first-up run was a blinder. Invincible Knight is another horse who flies first-up, while Lovani and Up ‘N’ Rolling were both good fresh but the concern is whether they are both looking for a bit further now (Lovani does goes up 100m all the same). Philosophy and Wayanka are both in this fresh as well, while Wild ‘N’ Famous at his best would give this a shake.
SPEED MAP: Not a heap of speed here with Wild ‘N’ Famous and potentially Up ‘N’ Rolling going forward. Peacock and Generalissimo won’t be far away.
DID YOU KNOW: Wild ‘N’ Famous pulled up lame last start.
SUGGESTED BET: I could speck MOST EXALTED if the track is playing fair. Along with some favoured runners, include Generalissimo, Invincible Knight and Wild ‘N’ Famous in wider quaddies and they could be worth a speck too if they get out to silly prices, which can happen late in the day if punters centre around one or two runners. Very tough race!
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Most Exalted $26-$18, Lovani $8-$6.50
TURF TALK
Ray Thomas and Matt Jones discuss their best bets for the weekend.
MJ: What a cracking Coolmore Classic. At least 10 horses could win this race. It took me ages to put my tips in for it.
RT: 10? Try 18. It’s always a tough race and Saturday is no different, but I’m going for Egg Tart over Dixie Blossoms, Just Dreaming and Alizee. But this race is so difficult, my top four all might miss a place.
MJ: I’ll be taking Heavens Above at the odds to go back-to-back and beat Silent Sedition, Dansih Twist and Daysee Doom again. Can you see a Golden Slipper contender other than Sunlight coming out of the meeting?
RT: Yes — Written By and Spin. I think they’re both quality colts but I have a slight lean to Written By. It’s amazing to think the first and second favourite for the Golden Slipper are running Saturday as this meeting hasn’t produced a Slipper winner since 2005 (Stratum).
MJ: You’re the king of the stats, Ray. And I’m hoping Spin can get the job done but I think Zousain has a bit of fight in him and if he’s ridden off the speed he’ll come home hard. What about old Tom Melbourne? Giving him a hope?
RT: The Duff likes him. I think everyone will be happy if “Tom” could finally win a race. But I’ve got to stick with Prized Icon, who has got the Winx form, and that’s good enough for me.
MJ: I agree with you. I’m backing Prized Icon but I hope he hasn’t been “Winxed” and had his heart broken by the champ when second to her last start. If he doesn’t win I’ll be cheering for Tom. The Phar Lap Stakes looks open. I’ll take a punt on Calculated after a good run behind shot hot Pierata on the Gold Coast.
RT: It’s a bit of a leap of faith with Renewal. I know it’s a massive jump in jump but he looks to be a progressive three-year-old. Ditto with Sprightly Lass in the Maurice McCarten Stakes.
MJ: A Team Hawkes double hey? She’s only got 53kg, but Nieta has just one more kilogram, but is 21 ratings points better and has been good at Group level and absolutely flies fresh (4:3-0-1). Two lead-up trials have her primed. Libran looks the good in the Sky High Stakes second-up over 2000m which has proved a winning formula in the past.
RT: I think it’s a match between Stampede and Libran. I just though Stampede might be able to control the race and get away with it, although Libran does have super second-up form.
MJ: I’ve never felt so confident about a few at odds on Saturday so it could be a great day out. And Penrith beating Souths would top off a great St Patrick’s Day.