Race watch: Brad Davidson’s extended preview and tips for day two of The Championships at Royal Randwick
SKY Racing form analyst Brad Davidson runs the rule over every race, including speed maps and suggested bets for day two of The Championships at Royal Randwick.
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SKY Racing form analyst Brad Davidson runs the rule over every race, including speed maps and suggested bets for day two of The Championships at Royal Randwick on Saturday.
ROYAL RANDWICK
Track: Good 4. Rail: 3m out.
R1 (11.25am): CHINA HORSE CLUB MILE (1600m)
OVERVIEW: I think the best bet on the card comes up in the opener in the shape of Aristocratic Miss. She went super after a wide run in the Blue Diamond and then her last two runs at 1400m have been great where she has had to be snagged back from wide gates before flashing home. You could make a case to say she wins both of those races from better draws. She has drawn a good marble to sit midfield here and be really strong late. The danger looks to be Cristal Eyes. She is only coming off a maiden win but her effort prior at Flemington was strong. Vega One looks best of the rest, but Aristocratic Miss looks a good play here.
DID YOU KNOW: Two of Aristocratic Miss’s siblings have won over a mile or beyond (1600m and 2000m).
SPEED MAP: Bold Arial looks your likely leader up sharply in trip. Several others can be handy up in trip but Bold Arial should dictate.
SUGGESTED BET: ARISTOCRATIC MISS looks the gamble of the day at $4.40. I think $3.50-$3.80 is about her right price.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Muswellbrook $12-$11 ($600 x $150 e/w @ $11/$3.45, $300 @ $11), Aristocratic Miss $4.60-$4.40 ($200 @ $4.60, $300 @ $4.40), Sokudo $12-$11
R2 (12.05pm): SOUTH PACIFIC CLASSIC (1400m)
OVERVIEW: This looks a nice race for Isaurian. He is a pretty promising colt that got close to I Am Excited last start and he should run out the 1400m. He looks hard to beat. I was taken by the recent trial of Renewal and he looks the only danger to my eye. He has been freshened since running well in the Phar Lap Stakes. I’m happy to take on Torvill back in trip with the big weight and I’m confident the winner comes from either Isaurian or Renewal.
DID YOU KNOW: Isaurian was also an acceptor for the Arrowfield 3YO Sprint but opted for this easier race.
SPEED MAP: There doesn’t seem to be a great deal of speed on paper which should allow Renewal and Isaurian to come across from out wide and take up positions close to the speed early. Diamond Tathagata could be more aggressive here and does have early speed. The speed doesn’t look overly strong though.
SUGGESTED BET: Two-horse race between Isaurian and Renewal with Isaurian on top. You can just back Isaurian but I think the safe way to play this is a $50 win strategy — $30 win ISAURIAN at $2.70, $20 win RENEWAL at $3.90.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Isaurian $2.80-$2.70 ($200 @ $2.70 MULTIPLE TIMES), Dark Dream $23-$15
R3 (12.40pm): PERCY SYKES STAKES (1200m)
OVERVIEW: Good race for the fillies. Pure Elation has turned her form around and it’s all through her settling. She seems to have really dropped her head with the nose roll and she has a sharp turn of foot. Cristobal was good on debut and then ran second to Sunlight. Her recent trial was pleasing and she should get a nice run midfield. Fiesta has been trapped wide at her past two starts and should get a suck run here and also has each-way prospects. They look the main three.
DID YOU KNOW: A post race vet examination of Setsuna in the Magic Night last start revealed multiple lacerations to her off-hind leg. She has won a trial since.
SPEED MAP: Even tempo expected with Setsuna the likely leader. Sister Sledge and Khulaasa should be handy.
SUGGESTED BET: $50 strategy — $30 win PURE ELATION and $20 CRISTOBAL to win.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Fiesta $5.50-$6 ($1,000 @ $6, $500 @ $6, $200 @ $5.50), Gongs $8-$7.50 ($1,000 @ $7.50)
R4 (1.15pm): PROVINCIALS CHAMPIONSHIPS FINAL (1400m)
OVERVIEW: Good race for the provincial horses. It is hard to go past Go Dreaming on paper and she is absolutely airborne this campaign and she drops back from Group 1 company. I think Manhattan Mist looks the danger and his run two back, when second to Just Dreaming, was enormous. He was the only on-pace runner to stick on after a strong speed was set. He has since defeated subsequent winner Marsupial. The only concern is they are likely to roll along here and it could set it up for Just Dreaming. Outside chances to Kool Vinnie, Bon Amis and even Witches if they go hard early.
DID YOU KNOW: Old Man Sam and Can’t Find Snippy have both suffered from a foot abscess in recent days and need to pass a vet test to start in this race.
SPEED MAP: Good speed expected here with Mandylion, Pomelo and Manhattan Mist up there early. They should roll along at a decent clip.
SUGGESTED BET: Trifecta — 1st: 1,5. 2nd: 1,4,5,7,10,13,15. 3rd: 1,4,5,7,10,13,15 — $30 for 50 per cent.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Bon Amis $9.50-$7.50, Manhattan Mist $7-$6.50
R5 (1.50pm): ARROWFIELD 3YO SPRINT (1200m)
OVERVIEW: Viridine has some pretty good form lines for this and looks the horse to beat but he is well found all the same. I think Booker is over the odds. Her effort was super in the Oakleigh Plate when caught wide throughout and then she was less than three lengths off Redkirk Warrior in a Newmarket. I Am Excited is unbeaten in three runs this time in and has been clocking some slashing finishing splits as well. She can win again. Catchy was fair behind Houtzen last start but she had to lump the big weight on a day where it was hard to make ground and she meets Houtzen 3kg better off here.
DID YOU KNOW: Dwayne Dunn is yet to finish further back than third in five rides on Booker. They have also combined for two wins.
SPEED MAP: Showtime, Houtzen, Perast and Booker should all be up there. Speed looks even.
SUGGESTED BET: $40 win VIRIDINE to win at $3.20+ and $10 BOOKER to win at $7.50.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: She Will Reign $13-$12, Booker $11-$9- $8 ($500 @ $9), Houtzen $11-$9- $7.50
R6 (2.25pm): AUSTRALIAN OAKS (2400m)
OVERVIEW: A solid edition of the Oaks but I can’t go past Hiyaam. She was a dominant winner of the Vinery which was run in strong figures and if you look at her 100m past the line, she was further in front of her rivals and definitely not stopping. She is third-up here so should be even fitter and her run in the Crown Oaks last year was a beauty when she copped a bump on the turn before picking herself up and clocking the quickest last 200m of the race. I’m scared of the New Zealander Savvy Coup. She tends to overrace which is a concern but she has a sharp turn of foot and can be in the finish if she behaves. Unforgotten and Luvaluva are both there but Unforgotten still has to prove she can get the trip (she should as she is out of a Galileo mare), while Luvaluva is coming off a tough 60kg win last weekend and it’s not the ideal lead-up after she missed the Vinery when she had an elevated white cell count. Aloisia was brave in the Vinery but I have to risk her until she proves she runs 2400m.
DID YOU KNOW: Bring Me Roses beat home Hiyaam, Aloisia, Luvaluva and Miss Admiration in the Crown Oaks over 2500m last year at her only run beyond 2000m.
SPEED MAP: Expect Hiyaam to lead and roll along with Contessa Vanessa and Danzdanzdance not far away. Speed should be solid.
SUGGESTED BET: HIYAAM to win. She has been $8-$4.60 this week, so I’m hoping she gets back out a touch better on race day. I think we wait.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Hiyaam $7-$4.60 ($225 @ $5.50, $500 @ $4.60, $200 @ $4.60), Unforgotten $3.50-$4 ($2,000 @ $4, $1,400 @ $4, $400 @ $4, $220 @ $4 TWICE), Savvy Coup $8-$7- $7.50 ($300 @ $8, $500 @ $7.50 TWICE, $200 @ $7)
R7 (3.05pm): QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES (2000m)
OVERVIEW: Winx will bid to equal Black Caviar’s 25-race winning streak in the Queen Elizabeth and what a moment it promises to be. It’s a good field this year and the wide gate and firm track adds intrigue, but the great mare should be winning again. I think Humidor looks the bet in the ‘Winx out’ market. He gave Winx a huge scare when second in the Cox Plate on the back up and he was looking for 2000m already in the Doncaster Mile last start. Gailo Chop is much better suited back to 2000m. He simply just doesn’t run 2400m as we witnessed last start. Happy Clapper is flying but I’m confident he is a better horse at 1600m, while Irish raider Success Days adds intrigue and, while he has been well beaten at his past two starts, he does have form around Johannes Vermeer prior to that.
DID YOU KNOW: Comin’ Through meets Happy Clapper 5kg worse off here for being beaten home by that horse by two lengths in the Doncaster.
SPEED MAP: Tempo should be solid with Classic Uniform, Odeon and Gailo Chop up there. Success Days could be up there too, while Winx will either try to find cover three wide just worse than midfield or just go back to the tail.
SUGGESTED BET: HUMIDOR to win at $3 in the “Winx out” market.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Gailo Chop $13-$15, Winx $1.18-$1.15 ($124,500 @ $1.18, $5,000 @ $1.15, $4,500 @ $1.15)
R8 (3.45pm): SYDNEY CUP (3200m)
OVERVIEW: A really interesting edition of the Sydney Cup with plenty of chances and form lines to consider. I’m happy to speck Who Shot Thebarman here primarily the place. He ran second in this race last year and his run in the Tancred Stakes was a beauty. He is a 3200m horse and I just can’t see him running a bad race. The $4.60 a place looks a good play. Almandin is a beauty and he has a winning weight of 57kg. He is a Melbourne Cup winner and could well be too good for these. Pre Stwick has form around Fame Game and Albert in Japan and by all reports he has settled in well. He could well just be too good for these. I liked the way Doukhan finished off in the Chairman’s and I think he will stay the trip. He is worth thought for multiples and is worth a little wager at $30 the place.
DID YOU KNOW: Five To Midnight ($26) beat home Sir Charles Road ($7) by 1¼ lengths at their only clash over two miles yet is almost four times the price of that horse here. Five To Midnight was beaten just 0.3 lengths by Sir Charles Road at their only other clash at 2400m.
SPEED MAP: Good tempo expected with Lasqueti Spirit set to find the front and roll along at some point of the race. Cismontane, potentially Peribsen (was ridden quieter last start) and Pre Stwick could all be up there.
SUGGESTED BET: WHO SHOT THEBARMAN to place at $4.60 (could entertain small place play DOUKHAN at $30, too). Boxed trifecta — 1,2,6,7,9,18,21 — $42 for 20 per cent.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Almandin $4-$4.20 ($500 @ $4.20, $1,000 @ $4), Pre Stwick $11-$12 ($2,000 e/w @ $12/$3.85), Sir Charles Road $8-$6.50- $7
R9 (4.25pm): COOLMORE LEGACY STAKES (1600m)
OVERVIEW: These mares’ races are pretty tough to decipher. I would have been relatively keen on Dixie Blossoms if she drew a gate but that’s not to be. She absolutely loves Randwick and with any luck she is right in the finish. Silent Sedition and Prompt Response (no cover) were both wide in the Coolmore and went super. Heavens Above third-up at a mile appeals and she did run second in this race two years ago. Foxplay won this race last year but probably needs a wet track to show her best, while Spanish Reef, Aide Memoir and Daysee Doom (1600m is on her outer limits) are all capable as well. The chances don’t end there either!
DID YOU KNOW: Just 2.3 lengths separated nine of these horses in the Coolmore Classic at Rosehill last month.
SPEED MAP: Strong tempo expected with Spanish Reef, Silent Sedition, Perfect Rhyme, Daysee Doom and Prompt Response all likely to be up there.
SUGGESTED BET: I would have been keen on DIXIE BLOSSOMS from a good draw but that’s not the case. I can still be with her, though, if the track is allowing horses to run on and playing to the middle by this stage. Wait and see if that’s the case. HEAVENS ABOVE is also over the odds at $26.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Foxplay $8-$10- $9.50 ($1,500 @ $10), Spanish Reef $11-$9.50 ($500 @ $9.50, $200 @ $9.50), Payroll $35-$23, Abbey Marie $26-$21
R10 (5.05pm): TAB SAPPHIRE STAKES (1200m)
OVERVIEW: I know Spright goes up 2.5kg here but the $16 seems over the odds all the same. She is a mare that showed she was back on track with a very good first-up win at Rosehill against the boys and her last 600m was the best of the day and very slick. She won the Brian Crowley a few preps back second-up at this track and distance in a canter. She should be strong late again here. Quilista should find the front again and be hard to run down, while Ravi will be fitter second-up and gets a nice run just off the speed. Sugar Bella has each-way claims but looks well found all the same from the awkward draw. Ghisoni has trialled up well but she has only had the one official trial into this and that concerns me. Invincibella and White Moss next best.
DID YOU KNOW: Ravi meets Sugar Bella 6kg better off at the weights for being beaten just 0.7 lengths behind that horse first-up.
SPEED MAP: Quilista will try to find the front from her wide draw with Pecans and Lubiton there as well. Speed should be strong.
SUGGESTED BET: SPRIGHT each-way at $16.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Spright $16 unchanged ($250 @ $16, $200 e/w @ $16/$4.70), Ghisoni $11-$9.50- $10, Quilista $5-$4.60, Sugar Bella $4.80-$5
THE MONEY TRAIL
with TAB’s Andrew Georgiou
ATC OAKS
“Hiyaam has been the biggest firmer since the barrier draw. At that stage, our traders had her at $7 but she is now into $4.60 and pressing Unforgotten, which has drifted, for favouritism. Unforgotten is holding the most money of the runners at this point while the New Zealander, Savvy Coup, has attracted good each way investments as well.”
SYDNEY CUP
“Almandin is easily the most popular runner in terms of money taken. The 2016 Melbourne Cup winner is holding more than double the early investment than any other runner in the race. Pre Stwick, the Japanese horse, attracted a big $2,000 each way bet once the field was finalised. Out of that pair there has been specking for the likes of Sir Charles Road, which is $9-$7, as well as Ventura Storm which has firmed from $13 into $11.”
COOLMORE LEGACY
“Punters haven’t been keen to chime into this race. They appear happy enough to speck a few at each way odds with the likes of Foxplay, Spanish Reef, Payroll and Abbey Marie all coming in for some support. Interestingly, two of the more popular mares in Sydney in Dixie Blossoms and Daysee Doom haven’t seen any decent money as yet.”
QUEEN ELIZABETH
“Winx is stifling the market here and there hasn’t been anything seriously backed to beat her. We took a huge bet of $124,500 @ $1.18 shortly after the barrier draw on Tuesday but since then it has been fairly quiet. Odeon at $101 has had some very light specking at the price.”
PROVINCIAL CHAMPIONSHIPS FINAL
“Just Dreaming is a clear favourite but our customers haven’t jumped into her as yet. Bon Amis has trimmed up from $9.50-$7.50 and is the best backed runner in terms of the early money. Manhattan Mist and Witches have both had their admirers since the barrier draw.”