Off and Racing: Shayne O’Cass’s extended preview and tips for Royal Randwick
Sportsman form analyst Shayne O’Cass runs the rule over every race on Epsom Day, plus TAB market movers and suggested bets, including a blowout chance in The Epsom.
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ROYAL RANDWICK
Track: Soft 5. Rail: 3m out.
R1 (12.20pm): GIMCRACK STAKES (1000m)
OVERVIEW: Every Rose is bred to be a fast and precocious two-year-old and that’s exactly what she is. There is plenty of Show A Heart/Rory’s Jester in her looks-wise, she was arguably the most impressive of the fillies who went around at the official two-year-old trials at Kensington on September 23. In fact, she ran the quickest time of the 11 heats. Drawn to win if good enough. Fall On A Star also impressed winning her heat. Her dam, Igraine, was a narrow runner-up in the 2015 Gimcrack. Has also drawn favourably. In Flanders has drawn out but she got back and zoomed home to win her trial.
SUGGESTED BET: EVERY ROSE win, box flexi trifecta 2,3,4,11.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Every Rose $3-$2.90 ($800 @ $2.90), Rose Sauvage $19-$18 ($374 @ $18)
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R2 (12.55pm): BREEDERS’ PLATE (1000m)
OVERVIEW: No horse trialled better at the official heats, male or female, than Godolphin’s Beyliks. A Lonhro from nose to tail, this fellow is the first foal of the talented Ottoman. He was very professional winning his heat by a comfortable margin. Smart type. Global Quest is by More Than Ready and won his heat without any fuss and not much effort. Blessed with barrier three here. The Snowden pair, Nitrous and $900,000 yearling Barbaric, are both nice horses.
SUGGESTED BET: BEYLIKS win and best bet; excata Beyliks to beat GLOBAL QUEST.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Belieber $6-$4.40 ($500 @ $6)
R3 (1.30pm): GOW GATES HCP (1600m)
Dealmaker has raced twice before over the Randwick mile for a close-up third to then stablemate Ringadingding and more recently when closing off for a diminishing 3½-lengths sixth to Junipal and Greysful Glamour, the latter also scheduled to go around here with high hopes of winning. As for Dealmaker, he is fourth run into the campaign now and even though he is just one win from 17 starts, the stars may align for him this weekend. Queensland Oaks fourth placegetter Angel of Heaven was terrific first-up. The Bjorn Baker pair Shock Alert and Irukandji are both worthy.
SUGGESTED BET: DEALMAKER win; quinella Dealmaker and GREYSFUL GLAMOUR.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Shock Alert $6-$5, Oakfield Missile $101-$41
R4 (2.05pm): FLIGHT STAKES (1600m)
This looks a genuine match-race between New Zealand’s best three-year-old filly Probabeel and the filly that beat her in the Tea Rose, Funstar. Given that there are only six runners, tactics and tempo will play a huge role in the outcome. It’s James McDonald on Funstar and Kerrin McEvoy on the Kiwi, as was the case in the Tea Rose. Interestingly, both jockeys have been on the back of their rival filly in either a race or a trial. It’s toss of the coin stuff, both would be deserved winners, but Probabeel was about $2.20 against Funstar at $1.85 and head to head, that’s not a bad price about the Savebeel filly.
SUGGESTED BET: PROBABEEL win.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Funstar $1.90-$1.85
R5 (2.45pm): PREMIERE STAKES (1200m)
Cases could be made that Osborne Bulls should be at least a three-time, maybe four or five-time Group 1-winning sprinter. He’s been very unlucky but his pattern doesn’t help him in big fields. The son of Ramornie winner Jerezana has raced exclusively in Group 1 races in 2019 and was runner-up in all of them. His numbers are amazing; 19 starts for nine wins, seven seconds and two thirds, one of them in The Everest. Classique Legend was outstanding when a half-length second to Pierata in The Shorts. He has the advantage over Osborne Bulls of having had a run, which may or may not be significant over 1200m. Graff would be a worthy Everest runner but you’d think he would need to win this to gain a slot.
SUGGESTED BET: OSBORNE BULLS win.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Osborne Bulls $3.10-$3 ($1,500 @ $3.10), Land Of Plenty $41-$26, Brutal $8-$6.50
R6 (3.25pm): HILL STAKES (2000m)
Life Less Ordinary has run some great races Down Under, including a four-lengths win in the Wagga Cup, while he was fifth in the Group 1 Cantala, four-lengths behind Brutal in the Doncaster, and was runner-up in the Doomben Cup in the winter. Granted he was ordinary (no pun intended) in the Tramway but he’s gone back and made amends at the trials. Hugh Bowman rides and he’s got great numbers at the track and the trip. Stablemates Youngstar and Verry Elleegant are both Oaks winners and get their chance to win third-up and at a suitable distance. They have won on good tracks but both are better on soft/heavy.
SUGGESTED BET: LIFE LESS ORDINARY each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Samadoubt $4.40-$3.90, Youngster $8-$7, Verry Elleegant $3.50-$2.80 ($1,000 @ $2.90)
R7 (4.05pm): TAB EPSOM (1600m)
At the beginning of this campaign, Rock was a 68-rater racing in, and winning, a midweeker at Canterbury. He won his next start at Kensington then faced the first real acid test as a four-year-old in the Cameron and passed with flying colours. His trajectory is quite extraordinary and Team Hawkes have managed to get him into the Doncaster with 50.5kg — and flying. Te Akau Shark lost no fans in the Tramway. Kolding was barnstorming in the Bill Ritchie and is peaking for this. Cascadian was a narrow runner-up in the Group 1 Prix Jean Prat. The blowout is Nettoyer, who was very good behind Rock at Newcastle.
SUGGESTED BET: ROCK win; NETTOYER each-way; box flexi trifecta 4,9,10.15,16.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Te Akau Shark $7-$6, Unforgotten $26 ($1,000 @ $26), Kolding $6-$5
R8 (4.45pm): THE METROPOLITAN (2400m)
With Haripour scratched, Grey Lion looks well placed at great odds after an outstanding performance in the Kingston Town, finishing fourth to Finche and Stampede, who won the Colin Stephen last Saturday. Sydney Cup placegetter Sir Charles Road was just behind Grey Lion and is running into form/fitness.
SUGGESTED BET:GREY LION each-way; box flexi trifecta 3,7,11,16.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Brimham Rocks $6-$4.60, Hush Writer $11-$8.50
R9 (5.25pm): SNITZEL SPRINT (1200m)
James McDonald has ridden Signore Fox three times and won all three, including the Listed Daybreak Lover Stakes at Eagle Farm in the winter. McDonald has been aboard this untapped entire in his two trials, which were both hugely impressive. The big danger would appear to be the stablemate Reelem In Ruby. She looks in great nick and has no weight. Star Boy is bang on target for the Kosciuszko. Miss Fabulass has the talent to blow them away. Monitor the betting with most of these first-up horses.
SUGGESTED BET: SIGNORE FOX win; exacta Signore Fox to beat REELEM IN RUBY; quinella Signore Fox/Reelem In Ruby.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Star Boy $26-$15, Beau Ideal $15-$12, Catesby $51-$26, Handle The Truth $11-$6, Roheryn $11-$7.50