Off and Racing: Brad Davidson’s extended preview & tips for the Royal Randwick program
Sky Racing form analyst Brad Davidson runs the rule over every race, with TAB market movers and suggested bets for the Royal Randwick meeting.
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Sky Racing form analyst Brad Davidson runs the rule over every race, with TAB market movers and suggested bets for the Royal Randwick meeting.
RACE 1: 11:25AM SUPPORTERHUB HANDICAP (1400M)
Overview: Hard to go past Reloaded and he looks a very promising horse. The query was whether the 1200m was going to be a tad sharp first-up but class got him home and his trial since has been outstanding. The only issue is gate one and whether he can get out. Discharged should lead and prove hard to catch and he clocked good time from the front last start (3L quicker than the fillies 2YO maiden on the day).
Betting strategy: Reloaded to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: 5 — Reloaded $2.70-$2.10 ($500 @ $2.70-, $1,000 @ $2.60, $300 @ $2.50, $358 @ $2.40, $350 @ $2.40, $300 @ $2.40, $750 @ $2.30, $400 @ $2.30, $3,000 @ $2.20, $458 @ $2.20, $400 @ $2.20, $300 @ $2.20, $3,000 @ $2.10)
RACE 2: 12PM TAB HIGHWAY CLASS 3 HANDICAP (1000M)
Overview: I want to lean the way of the Matt Dunn pair in Lifesaver and Vernazza. Vernazza clocked some good closing splits first-up from a long break at Murwillumbah and he was well backed there. Lifesaver has trialled well coming in and the $8.50 appeals. He has good form last prep for this and he did win an 1100m Highway first-up last prep. Major Danger was a strong first-up winner at Hawkesbury in Highway grade and just comes back 100m here, while Madame Pauline is unbeaten but is first-up since late 2017. She has had three nice trials ahead of her return.
Betting strategy: Lifesaver the value at $8.50.
TAB MARKET MOVER: No bets or movements of note
RACE 3: 12.35PM MIZUNO HANDICAP (2000M)
Overview: Hard to go past Nobu here and he seems to have turned the corner since returning from New Zealand. He was really good off a slow tempo first-up and then blew away a nice enough field (2nd Duchess Of Lennox has ran well since) in good figures last start. I’m always wary of big margin wins on the Kensington track (they can do that there) but he is the horse to beat all the same. Angel Of Heaven settled further back than expected at the mid weeks last start and then had little luck late. She should be finishing off well if she relaxes in the run. I want to make a case for Romani Girl improving here. She was wide in the Australian Oaks and ran on OK prior in the Adrian Knox.
Betting strategy: Nobu to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: 2 — Nobu $6-$3.40 ($600 @ $6, $400 @ $5, $300 e/w @ $4.20/$1.95, $1,040 @ $3.70, $400 @ $3.40, $300 @ $3.40)
RACE 4: 1.10PM CANCER FOUNDATION HANDICAP (2000M)
Overview: Hard to go past Wolfe and he should lead these and prove hard to beat third up. He found the 1400m too short fresh but bolted in at 1900m last start. The stable have always had a big opinion of this horse. Belfast Bella was great against the tempo at Hawkesbury and she is going really well this prep.
Betting strategy: Wolfe looks hard to beat but Belfast Bella to place at $2.80 appeals.
TAB MARKET MOVER: 4 — Wolfe $2.90-$2.30 ($2,500 @ $2.90, $660 @ $2.50, $1,000 @ $2.40, $500 @ $2.30, $387 @ $2.30,
$350 @ $2.30); 6 — Occupy $12-$8.50
RACE 5: 1.50PM CANDANA BATHROOM WARE HANDICAP (1500M)
Overview: Kolding is two from two as a gelding and he has really turned the corner since then. He bolted in last start at Canterbury and the only concern I have is the 1500m and he is yet to tick that box (he peaked on his run at 1500m at Rosehill before being gelded). Having said that, he is clearly a different horse since being gelded and the $2.70 seems a decent price as well. Quackerjack rolls forward here from the gate and he chased home two smart horses last time out.
Betting strategy: Kolding to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: 5 — Kolding $3.50-$2.70 ($300 @ $3.50, $2,000 @ $3.30, $800 @ $3.30)
RACE 6: 2.30PM WILSON ASSET MANAGEMENT HANDICAP (1200M)
Overview: Zonk got a soft lead first-up but she was pretty good to the line there and she clocked some quick splits home. She just might have turned the corner and she can either kick up or box seat here. Gododdin rolls across from out wide here and she was very good first-up off a long break at Canterbury. She was on the best part of the track that day but can only go forward. Ready To Prophet won a stakes race first-up although she has been a bit hit and miss in the past. Gongs can improve sharply here and she was on the worst part of the track first-up at Scone and you just couldn’t make ground on the fence that day.
Betting strategy: Gododdin a deserved favourite but I think Zonk is the value here.
TAB MARKET MOVER: No bets or movements of note
RACE 7: 3.10PM FUJITSU AIR CONDITIONING HANDICAP (1400M)
Overview: I liked the run of Organza first-up in Group company and she gets her chance here with a terrific second-up record (four starts for three wins and a second). I just hope they are nice and aggressive early and she can get into a good spot. Renewal was very good on the Kensington track last start and there have already been two winners out of that race. I think Moss Trip was too bad to be true last start (despite being on the worst part of the track) and she can definitely improve out of sight here.
Betting strategy: Leaning to Organza at the odds over Renewal.
TAB MARKET MOVER: 11 — Renewal $3.90-$3.50 ($500 @ $3.90, $500 @ $3.70)
RACE 8: 3.50PM EML HANDICAP (1100M)
Overview: On paper, the winner should come from either Cradle Mountain or Deprive but there’s plenty of depth outside of that as well. Cradle Mountain is just a beauty and he has trialled up well and should be right there in the finish fresh. Deprive was a late scratching after knocking his head in the gates last weekend. He flies fresh. I Thought So ran second in this race last year and has trialled well leading in but does have a big weight and is off a long break. I want to make a place case for Dissolute at big odds. He has a nice finish on his day and might be worth a place speck at the huge odds.
Betting strategy: Cradle Mountain and Deprive appeal as the market suggests but I could speck Dissolute a place at huge odds.
TAB MARKET MOVER: 9 — She Knows $51-$61-$31 ($1,000 e/w @ $61/$12, $100 x $400 e/w @ $61/$12); Deductions: Junglized 2c Win 2c Place
RACE 9: 4.30PM SEVEN NEWS HANDICAP (1000M)
Overview: November Man is yet to secure a start but I think he should be favourite if he does. He was enormous last start and clocked easily the quickest last 600m split of the day (32.56s-quickest on day by .4s). If he repeats that, he is the horse to beat and we’re getting $8 too. Koonunga was good when wide at Canterbury last start and we will get a reference of that form through Gododdin earlier in the day. Power Command found the heavy track too much last start but beat three subsequent winners first-up, while Revenire and Taniko should both be running on late. Miss Exfactor blew the start first-up and can improve here.
Betting strategy: November Man looks overs at $8. Power Command could get to silly odds.
TAB MARKET MOVER: No bets or movements of note