Off and Racing: Brad Davidson’s extended preview and tips for Rosehill Gardens
Sky Racing form analyst Brad Davidson runs the rule over every race at Rosehill Gardens, with TAB market movers and suggested bets.
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ROSEHILL GARDENS
Track: Good 4. Rail: 3m out.
R1 (1.15pm): DRINKWISE PLATE (1100m)
OVERVIEW: Good two-year-old race. Hard to go past Hinchbeast. He was pretty impressive on debut and did win a trial in much quicker time than Farnan on the same day prior to that. He should lead and prove hard to catch. Farnan bolted in on debut at Canberra and the overall time was seven lengths quicker than the maiden on the day. He will have his admirers here. Sancy has hit the line well in two trials, while Tycoonist must be respected off the decent move in early markets for this first starter. I’m risking Mrs Maisel, who comes through a weak race for mine.
BETTING ADVICE: Leaning to HINCHBEAST but intriguing race.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Tycoonist $51-$71-$19 ($500 e/w @ $71/$10, $500 e/w @ $41/$6, $500 e/w @ $26/$4.40), Sancy $8.50-$5
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R2 (1.50pm): HYLAND HCP (1800m)
OVERVIEW: Statuesquely found one better last start but I loved how strong she was after the line. The step up to 1800m looks ideal and she should be hard to run down with Tim Clark aboard. Convinced was probably looking for further already last start and gets the opportunity to show his worth at 1800m. Soldier Of Love, Remuera, Nordic and Stardome (cardiac arrythmia last start) are all capable as well.
BETTING ADVICE: STATUESQUELY to win.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Nordic $10-$8.50 ($200 e/w @ $9/$2.60, $750 e/w @ $8.50/$2.50, $1,000 @ $2.40 PLACE), Frenzied $10-$7.50
LATEST BETTING: TAB FIXED ODDS
R3 (2.25pm): TAB HIGHWAY (1800m)
OVERVIEW: Pretty open Highway. Clergyman was taking ground off Sneak Preview last start and he has been a different horse since the blinkers went on three starts back. Harbouring has a sense of timing here second-up off a win over the mile and this looks a target race a fair way out. Dew Drop had no luck two back and then was good in benchmark grade last start and he just needs a bit of luck from the wide draw to figure. Up The Stairs was six weeks between runs last start and will be better for that hitout. He has won up to 2000m.
BETTING ADVICE: Not much between these. Work around with numbers 3,4,7,9.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Gunga Din $7-$4.40 ($200 e/w @ $7/$2.70, $750 @ $6, $200 e/w @ $5/$2.20)
R4 (3pm): GRAEME FERRIS HCP (2000m)
OVERVIEW: I think the market has overreacted to California Longbow’s disappointing effort last start. He pulled up lame there and he beat Mangione fair and square prior to that. He can bounce back. Dark Pearl showed a good turn of speed to win last start and I think he is over the odds here. Sure, this is a step up but he is still improving. Mangione has claims but seems short enough considering he is coming out of a couple of fast run races and this might be a tactical battle. Fun Fact should relish the extra trip.
BETTING ADVICE: CALIFORNIA LONGBOW at $5 and DARK PEARL at $11 represent overs.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Fun Fact $4-$4.40, Mangione $3.10-$2.60
R5 (3.40pm): BISLEY HCP (1500m)
OVERVIEW: Pretty open race with plenty of different form angles to consider. Orcein is going great guns and while his latest win wasn’t in super time, he makes his own luck close to the speed. Defeat is a good roughie. He hit the line well two back and then ran on again late last start when back in trip. This is his first try at 1500m but he won at 1400m last prep (in a swoopers race too where he was on speed). Starla, Pinup Miss, Bigboyroy and Plenty are all capable.
BETTING ADVICE: DEFEAT the roughie in a very tough race.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Starla $8-$3.70 ($550 @ $4.60)
R6 (4.20pm): TAB HCP (1350m)
OVERVIEW: Handspun got the better of Lucicello and Pumpkin Pie when they all met at Kembla Grange and she just has to reproduce that to be really competitive again. The extra trip should suit her. Lucicello started short that day and I thought she was a little bit disappointing. She is settling well this prep but 1350m is still a query. Word For Word has really good form around Queensland Oaks winner Winning Ways and Sunshine Coast Guineas victor Baccarat Baby last prep and just returns off a long spell. Late betting should tell the story on whether she is ready. Pumpkin Pie also has each-way claims.
BETTING ADVICE: Respect any push for WORD FOR WORD on race day. HANDSPUN the overs otherwise?
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Lucicello $2.60-$2.40 ($500 @ $2.40)
R7 (5pm): ELDERTON HOMES SPRINT (1100m)
OVERVIEW: Invictus Salute burnt the candle at both ends to score well last weekend and she is on the quick back up here. She should land outside Junglized and go close. Junglized has been kept fresh for this. He is not the type of horse that is going to put a field away but he is rarely beaten far and gets another chance. Taniko’s trials have been just fair but she is a different horse with blinkers on and they go on race day. Southern Lad was wide first-up against Glenall (who has franked the form since) and gets the services of Nash Rawiller here.
BETTING ADVICE: INVICTUS SALUTE on top.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Invictus Salute $4.40-$3.50 ($600 @ $3.80)
R8 (5.40pm): SCHWEPPES HCP (1200m)
OVERVIEW: Burning Crown has really hit his straps of late and he set a strong tempo last start and was able to maintain it. He should roll along in front again and prove hard to run down. Poetic Charmer just got too far back first-up but he closed off well and should settle closer here. Tony’s Reward pulled up lame last start and looks a good place chance here. Nicco Lad has trialled well leading into his return, while Echo Jet gets the blinkers on. Malea Magic is not hopeless either but looks short enough in betting.
BETTING ADVICE: BURNING CROWN to win.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Poetic Charmer $5.50-$4.60 ($400 e/w @ $4.40/$1.90, $200 e/w @ $4.40/$1.90), Burning Crown $3.20-$2.25 ($1,000 @ $3.20, $480 @ $3.10, $500 @ $2.70, $500 @ $2.30)
R9 (6.15pm): ROSEHILL HCP (1400m)
OVERVIEW: Hard to go past Outrageous and he was a good thing beaten last start. He has really hit his straps this campaign and his win prior to that was strong as well (albeit against inferior opposition). Yulong January was disappointing first-up but bounded to the front second up and was too strong. Spencer is up in grade here but he drops a huge 8kg off a city win, while Smartedge and Strome also have each-way prospects.
BETTING ADVICE: OUTRAGEOUS the horse to beat but SPENCER looks big odds for a last-start city winner.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Outrageous $3.30-$3.40-$3 ($2,000 @ $3.40)
TURF TALK
Matt Jones and Shayne O’Cass discuss their best bets for the weekend.
MJ: What’s your best bet of the day at Rosehill Gardens, and please tell me it’s not over $20.
SO: It was $301 two starts ago but we have to take $4.40 on Saturday about Fun Fact, who is crying out for 2000m.
MJ: I actually agree with you. He was super last start over a shorter trip and I can see him running over the top of them on Saturday. He’s my second best bet. My best is another horse I can see storming home late and that’s Lucicello in the sixth. Thoughts?
SO: Funny you say that because I am very keen on Word For Word in that same race. She hasn’t put a foot wrong and her trial was terrific.
MJ: I think Dew Drop can win the Highway at odds. He’s been in form and this isn’t the hardest race he’s been entered in. At about $18, I think he’s overs and is my value bet of the day. What’s yours?
SO: Nash Rawiller and John Thompson are a great combination and the fact that Nash has been on Primitivo in his two trials and is there in the last suggests to me that he might be primed for another big first-up run.
MJ: I know you like your breeding so tell me something about these two-year-olds in the first.
SO: First off, you’d be happy to own any of them. I think Sancy has trialled as well as any of them and was quite well backed when the markets first went up. She’s by I Am Invincible, out of Thiamandi, who was a Group winner, so she’s got the pedigree behind her.
MJ: I’m tipping her on that trial form, too, but wary of most of the others. I’m also giving Convinced another chance on the quick back-up in the second event on the card.
SO: Concur. Strange to think that a three-quarter brother to Karuta Queen is actually looking for more ground. You never can tell, I suppose.
MJ: I’ll be putting old mate Drachenfels in the quaddie. If he knocks me out I won’t be able to live with myself. Who’s another roughie to throw into a quaddie?
SO: My blowout of the day, if it happens, could be Toryjoy in the last.