Off and Racing: Brad Davidson’s extended preview and tips for Rosehill Gardens

Sky Racing form analyst Brad Davidson runs the rule over every race, with TAB market movers and suggested bets for Rosehill Gardens.

• Trainers welcome top hoops back into fold
• New training centre could tempt Waller to move

ROSEHILL GARDENS

Track: Soft 5. Rail: 6m out.

R1 (11.40am): ASX REFINITIV CHARITY HCP (1200m)

OVERVIEW: True Detective is obviously the horse to beat but he is well found considering he has drawn wide with speed inside. His figures first-up were very strong, though, but my knock is he could be left wide without cover and he is a horse who is keen at the best of times. Lucicello has been back to the trials after being scratched last time out at the gates. She jumped well and she seems to be settling that bit better now which is crucial. She looks the obvious danger here if everything goes wrong with the favourite as I expect it may. Exceed The Stars looks next best and it was a good win last time out and he still has upside.

BETTING STRATEGY: Leaning to LUCICELLO at the price.

LATEST BETTING: TAB FIXED ODDS

R2 (12.15pm): TAB HIGHWAY PLATE (1500m)

OVERVIEW: Tricky Highway. I reckon Pat’s Nipper is flying and I just wish I was quick enough to grab the $8.50 opening price. He was super when held up in a Highway two back and then last time out he wins in a couple more strides when sharply back in trip. Hugh Bowman goes aboard, which is a big plus, and he looks hard to beat. Assault’n’bathory just never runs a bad race and he should get an easier time of it on speed here than last start. Black Wand produced the best late splits of the day last start at Eagle Farm but can he reproduce that effort? The blinkers came off that day and helped him relax. Electrified can improve sharply back on top of the ground.

BETTING STRATEGY: PAT’S NIPPER to win.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Pat’s Nipper $8-$4.40 ($400 @ $5, $300 @ $5, $350 @ $4.40), Assault’ n’bathory $8-$6

R3 (12.50pm): REFINITIV HCP (1200m)

OVERVIEW: Hard to go past Connemara, she is really putting it together this prep. She went to the line with Notation last start and that horse has franked the form since. Her dry form seems good so I don’t see that being much of an issue. I think Jardin Rouge could be the bet if the market underestimates her on race day as I expect it might. The good thing about her is she is just a winner we haven’t found the bottom of yet. Stella Sea Sun and Malea Magic look next best.

BETTING STRATEGY: CONNEMARA the horse to beat but JARDIN ROUGE could get out to a good price on race day (market generally underestimates Queensland horses).

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Connemara $2.60-$2.50 ($3,000 @ $2.50)

R4 (1.25pm): PRO IT HCP (1350m)

OVERVIEW: Hard to go past River Bird, she has been in a rich vein of form. This is her first crack at the 1350m but the way she finished off last start suggests she should get it. Mapmaker is back in trip here but he can run a cheeky race if he finds the front. Fortensky was huge first-up when wide and his second-up record is strong. He hasn’t won for a while though. What you see is what you get with Gresham and he will run his usual honest race.

BETTING STRATEGY: RIVER BIRD on top.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: River Bird $2.30-$2.20 ($2,000 @ $2.20, $1,500 @ $2.20, $500 @ $2.20)

River Bird steps up to 1350m for the first time at Rosehll Gardens. Picture: Getty Images

R5 (2pm): ROBB REPORT HCP (2400m)

OVERVIEW: I know he prefers wet tracks but I have to have something on Makdanife at $14. He was a moral beaten last time out at Warwick Farm and if he got a crack at them from the 600m, he would have won by about two lengths in my opinion. He is going well at the moment and gets in light and while he prefers a wet track, the Warwick Farm surface played better than a soft 5 last start and he should have won. His form around Attorney and subsequent winner Ulusaba the start prior reads well. Ilwendo was mighty impressive last time out in Brisbane and the time was good (he clocked the third quickest last 200m split of the day). That was on a wet track and can he reproduce that on top of the ground? The extra trip should suit but he is well found all the same. Our Candidate will be fitter fifth up and I just wish he drew a gate, while High Power should appreciate the firmer track and gets the blinkers on here.

BETTING STRATEGY: MAKDANIFE each-way at $14.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Ilwendo $3.50-$2.60 ($500 @ $3.30, $500 @ $3.10, $500 @ $3), Our Candidate $8-$5.50 ($500 @ $8, $250 x $100 e/w @ $7/$2.40, $700 @ $6, $400 @ $6, $300 @ $6)

R6 (2.40pm): NEXT TELECOM HCP (1400m)

OVERVIEW: Open race. I’m with Sharapova. She was pretty good first-up in maiden grade. She got on-pace favours that day but the second horse is a good horse and she can make the progression here. The blinkers will help Front Sight, although at $2.40 he seems short enough. Wimlah beat Front Sight fair and square last start and has to be a chance to repeat the dose despite the wide draw. I thought Skyray was a silly price here at $51. I wish it was 1300m and not 1400m but he was on the wrong part of the track last start and can finish off in a race like this. Seles goes in the quaddie as well and there are other chances as well.

BETTING STRATEGY: Could speck SHARAPOVA and SKYRAY at the odds but very tricky race.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Front Sight $4-$2.50 ($1,500 @ $4, $1,500 @ $3.50, $300 @ $3, $500 @ $2.80, $750 @ $2.60, $1,000 @ $2.50)

R7 (3.20pm): WINTER CHALLENGE (1500m)

OVERVIEW: Very even race as the market suggests. The only real bet I could entertain is New Tipperary and he just didn’t handle the wet track last time out. The 1500m plus a dry track is a big advantage and the market has overreacted here making him a 20-1 chance. Salsonic has received some support at the big odds as well and he was good last start (quickest last 200m of the race) and is another who will appreciate a firmer track. Eckstein sat wide and beat many of these last start and the dry track should be fine, while Duca Valentinois, Gaulois, Seaway, Take It Intern, Cradle Mountain and Nicci’s Gold are all capable.

BETTING STRATEGY: ECKSTEIN on top but I could speck NEW TIPPERARY at the big odds but I think you will get better odds on race day.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Eckstein $6.50-$4.80 ($500 @ $5.50, $400 @ $5, $500 e/w @ $4.80/$2.10), Nicci’s Gold $9-$10 ($500 e/w @ $10/$3.30)

Eckstein will be having her final start in the Winter Challenge before heading to stud. Picture: AAP

R8 (4pm): PRECISE AIR HCP (1100m)

OVERVIEW: Hard to go past the well-backed favourite Bon Amis and the freshen back onto a firm track is the key. He has a great record at the Rosehill 1100m and was just bogged down on a wet Rosehill track last start (when on the wrong part of the track, too). Hugh Bowman goes on here. You Make Me Smile has trialled well and while he hasn’t really been a fresh horse in the past, he does look the danger. Taniko was on the right part of the track last start at Randwick but produced some sizzling late sectionals and isn’t out of this either. Delectation Girl will probably find this too short but is not hopeless either.

BETTING STRATEGY: BON AMIS on top.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Delectation Girl $7-$5, Bon Amis $3.20-$3.50-$2.40 ($600 @ $3.50, $500 e/w @ $3.30/$1.60, $500 @ $3.30, $500 @ $3.20, $3,000 @ $3.10, $650 @ $2.90, $500 @ $2.80, $350 @ $2.80, $589 @ $2.70, $625 @ $2.60, $667 @ $2.50), Taniko $5.50-$7-$6.50

R9 (4.40pm): PACIFIC BOATING HCP (1100m)

OVERVIEW: Gee, I reckon this is a good bet, Sharpe Hussler. He put in a good run first-up when he was just bogged down on wet track. He has a great second-up record and the key is the good track. I loved his trial since the first-up effort and I can’t forget his win here third-up last prep over 1100m where he clocked 33.42s (the quickest last 600m on the day by three lengths). I spoke to Cam Crockett this week and while he said the horse’s coat isn’t there yet, he is still happy with Sharpe Hussler. He has been $14-$9 but I think he probably starts shorter still. Rare Episode burnt the candle both ends last start and looks the main danger, while Greyworm is a nice horse but it looks tricky for him out wide on the map here with speed inside.

BETTING STRATEGY: SHARPE HUSSLER the play of the day each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Sharpe Hussler $14-$10 ($200 e/w @ $12/$3.60), Prime Candidate $10-$9 ($1,000 @ $10)

Sharpe Hussler has a great second-up record. Picture: AAP

TURF TALK

Ray Thomas and Shayne O’Cass discuss their best bets for the weekend.

Thomas: It’s like old times at Rosehill on Saturday. Nash Rawiller’s back, so is Glen Boss and Larry Cassidy. Three of the best jockeys over the last decade or so in Sydney racing – and favourites with punters, too.

O’Cass: Just adds to the already deep pool of riding talent in the Sydney jockeys’ room. I’d like to see them ride a winner but I think Tommy Berry is going to have a good day. I’ve got him winning the opener on Lucicello, although I am worried about True Detective.

Thomas: I’m with True Detective, although he has drawn a little awkwardly. He was run down by a very talented colt in Spend first-up, but he made a real race of it. He will be fitter and can go one better.

O’Cass: I know you love your tennis and admire Roger Federer so surely you are on the omen bet of the meeting – Seles to beat Sharapova in race six. Seles, another good ride for Berry, can mix her form but she has a barnstorming finish.

Thomas: My best bet is in the same race, Front Sight. He’s a big, striding horse much better suited at Rosehill than Warwick Farm where he comes off an unlucky second to Wimlah. I’ve got Front Sight’s trainer Kris Lees winning successive races as I am leaning to Take It Intern in the Winter Challenge.

O’Cass: You know I’m a Testashadow man. You also know that Gary Portelli is very happy with how the horse is progressing this preparation. He’s third-up and ready to peak. The stablemate Nicci’s Gold will be hard to beat.

Thomas: Can we talk about Delectation Girl? She trialled like … ok, I’ll say it … Phar Lap at Newcastle the other day. She is a former northern hemisphere mare imported by the masters Australian Bloodstock. I wanted to tip her on top but I’m very wary of Bon Amis producing a form turnaround on the firmer track.

O’Cass: I noticed the early market support for Delectation Girl, which was a good push ahead of her Australian debut. I agree, her trials were fantastic, she looks very sharp, and she is a stakeswinner in Germany. The owners are having a great run of success. I thought the staying race was hard.

Thomas: Talk about German imports, what about Ilwendo? He could not have been more impressive, albeit against weaker opposition, at Doomben last start. He’s going to enjoy getting out to 2400m.

O’Cass: I’m with you again. He has been going well all preparation but so is Kaapfever. My roughie is Toulouse.