Off and Racing: Brad Davidson’s extended preview and tips for Randwick
Sky Racing form analyst Brad Davidson runs the rule over every race, including TAB market movers and suggested bets on City Tatts Cup Day at Royal Randwick.
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ROYAL RANDWICK
Track: Good 4. Rail: 8m out.
R1 (12.55pm): KIRKHAM PLATE (1000m)
OVERVIEW: The general history with this rail position in recent times has been on-pace and rail advantage, so I have to lean the way of Anders in the first. His first trial was just fair but he went forward, led and won the second trial comfortably in solid time. Endorse was given a soft hitout in a recent trial, which rated some five lengths quicker than Close To Me’s trial on the same day. Close To Me was given an easy hitout as well, though, and there was plenty of style in how she went about it. See You Soon showed plenty of strength through the line in a recent trial and looks next best.
BETTING ADVICE: Leaning to ANDERS but late market intel important here.
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R2 (1.35pm): HIGHWAY HCP (1800m)
OVERVIEW: I’ll lean the way of But I Know but I concede she will need things to go her way from the back. She has had the race run to suit at her past two starts but has finished strongly and should be hitting the line hard again. Fast Talking should have finished closer in a benchmark race last start and bolted in out in the country twice prior to that. He is going really well. Couru maps to get all the favours and looks the best of the on pace runners, while Black Wand was a bit disappointing last start but was off a freshen and was a Highway winner prior.
BETTING ADVICE: Leaning to BUT I KNOW.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Fast Talking $6-$4.80.
R3 (2.10pm): BRIAN CROWLEY STAKES (1200m)
OVERVIEW: I would have liked to have seen him trial a touch better in his latest hitout but Diamond Thunder still has to be the bet here. Took all before him last prep with his only defeat being a brave third when he was taken on in front and the swoopers prevailed. He beat California Zimbol before a break and she is a subsequent Group 3 winner. Dirty Work went super in the Roman Consul and if he reproduces that, he is right in this (also accepted in Melbourne). I could save on him. Faretti is a nice enough horse but I think he is being priced on hype here. The facts are his debut win, albeit dominant, was two lengths slower than the other maiden on the day and the second horse out of the race has been soundly beaten since. Regimental Band gets the blinkers on and should improve here after being a touch disappointing last start.
BETTING ADVICE: DIAMOND THUNDER to win. Save on DIRTY WORK.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Diamond Thunder $8-$5.50, Faretti $3.50-$2.30 ($2,000 @ $3.50, $1,000 @ $3, $1,600 @ $2.80, $500 @ $2.80, $500 @ $2.60).
R4 (2.45pm): FILANTE HCP (1400m)
OVERVIEW: Not much between Improvement and Greyworm and I’ll lean the way of Improvement at the better odds. She beat home Greyworm two back (meets Greyworm 2.5kg better off for doing so as well) and then was trapped four wide without cover last start in Melbourne in a race that rated really well. The 1400m is as far as she wants. Greyworm is likeable. He got all the favours last start but maps to get the same run here. Luvaluva has trialled well leading into her return but she always does that. She wasn’t far off them in the Toy Show first-up two preps back. Gresham looks next best.
BETTING ADVICE: Leaning to IMPROVEMENT over GREYWORM only simply from a price perspective.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Greyworm $2.70-$2.40 ($2,000 @ $2.70, $500 @ $2.50), Improvement $6-$4.80 ($300 e/w @ $6/$2.10).
R5 (3.20pm): THE NIVISON (1200m)
OVERVIEW: Pretty In Pink looks the bet here and I loved her recent trial with the blinkers on. She cruised to the line in the quickest heat of the day by about seven lengths. She has had no luck this prep. First-up, she missed the start and got back in a real sprint home and then second-up she copped a nasty check at the start which put her out of action. She can settle closer here and looks the value back to 1200m. Multaja looked a bit disappointing last start but it was a real sit and sprint and she will be better suited out to this trip. Reelem In Ruby was luckless fresh and is likeable although, like every start she contests pretty much, she seems to go around quite short in the market. Nicci’s Gold never runs a bad race fresh and is a good place chance here (knockout hope as well). Against Madame Rouge at the price.
BETTING ADVICE: PRETTY IN PINK to win.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Madam Rouge $6-$4.60, Reelem In Ruby $3.40-$3.70-$3.30 ($1,000 x $1,500 e/w @ $3.70/$1.65).
R6 (3.55pm): TATTERSALLS CUP (2400m)
OVERVIEW: Master Of Wine is the horse to beat but I’m not sure the gap should be as large as it is between him and Attention Run. Attention Run wasn’t beaten far in the Metrop last start and the blinkers come off here after he was just a bit keen last start. He also covered ground (albeit had cover). Master Of Wine was pretty dominant over 2000m last start. The little knock is they set him up for him that day and he didn’t beat much at all opposition-wise. He has to handle the step up to 2400m and is not well weighted but he looks the progressive horse all the same. Rapido Chaparro has had a great prep and now steps out to the 2400m. He could be hard to run down if the track is playing on pace. Maurus is building nicely as well.
BETTING ADVICE: Leaning to ATTENTION RUN at the price.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Rapido Chaparro $6-$4.40, Master Of Wine $2.80-$2.60.
R7 (4.35pm): BONDI STAKES (1600m)
OVERVIEW: I have to lean the way of Kubrick here. He comes through the A-grade form lines of the Golden Rose and Caulfield Guineas and while he was disappointing in the latter, he was wide the whole way. This is many lengths easier and I can understand why he is popular in betting. I think the roughie here is Ballistic Boy. His last two runs have been super in Queensland and he can shape up here at good odds. Just Thinkin’ leads and should prove hard to catch back to the mile while Bottega did start $2.20 in the Stan Fox but had too much work to do there. Colada must also be respected off the last start win in strong figures.
BETTING ADVICE: Leaning to KUBRICK.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Kubrick $5.50-$4.60 ($500 @ $4.60), Just Thinkin’ $3.10-$3.90.
R8 (5.20pm): KOGAROO HCP (1200m)
OVERVIEW: I thought Poised To Strike was the value here off a complete forgive run fresh. He never got out in the straight and he did beat Testifier comfortably enough in a trial leading into this prep as well. Safado is now with the Chris Waller yard after Kim Waugh did a really good job with this horse. I loved the way he found the line in a recent trial and he has always been a talent. Testifier is unbeaten but I would have liked to have seen a bit more at the trials? Coterie next best and he was OK fresh without raving about.
BETTING ADVICE: POISED TO STRIKE at the odds.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Poised To Strike $9.50-$7.50, Safado $7-$5 ($500 @ $7).
R9 (6pm): DAILY PRESS HCP (1500m)
OVERVIEW: I think she is around her right price in a tricky race but I want to be with Sure Knee here. She did about as much as she could fresh off a slow tempo and her close second behind a subsequent Group 1 winner in Princess Jenni second-up last prep would have her probably winning this. The form around Bergen looks good after Sakura, Dunbrody Power and Tahsin all won out of the race he comes through on Wednesday. Sausedge bolted in last start in much weaker grade and has to be respected, while Romani Girl was up sharply in trip last start and should improve.
BETTING ADVICE: Leaning to SURE KNEE.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Sure Knee $6-$5.
TURF TALK
Ray Thomas and Matt Jones discuss their best bets for the weekend.
MJ: We’ve got another rich Sydney meeting with the $1 million Bondi Stakes for the three-year-olds and this is a race that will get better each year. I think Kubrick can strike and win the first one because he’s got the hot Golden Rose form. I’m guessing you think Gerald Ryan’s pair might have something to say about that?
RT: I’m giving Bottega another chance. He was beaten as a short-priced favourite in the Stan Fox when he got a long way back and couldn’t get into the contest. With the blinkers on he should settle a bit closer and be hard to beat.
MJ: The Nivison is an even sprint. The money says it’s between Reelem In Ruby and Madam Rouge which looks right but an upset result wouldn’t surprise me with the likes of Pretty In Pink and Miss Fabulass capable.
RT: I’m a huge fan of two mares in this race – Reelem In Ruby and Miss Fabulass. What you see is what you get with Reelem In Ruby, she’s very genuine and you know she’ll be there at the finish and I’ve made her my best bet of the day. I’m wary of Miss Fabulass who has loads on natural talent.
MJ: My best bet of the day is Safado in the eighth. He’s trialled up like a bomb and is two for two first-up and I think he’ll keep that perfect record intact even though he’s drawn wide for Jason Collett. What’s your thoughts on the two-year-old race? The Snowdens look to have stranglehold on it with three chances. I’m going with the $1 million filly Close To Me.
RT: This will be an interesting two-year-old clash. Anders was super in his latest trial and I’m leaning his way but only just from the Snowden duo of Close To Me and Endorse. I also give See You Soon a chance at odds.
MJ: We have the first open Cox Plate in years following the retirement of the champ Winx. I’m banking on the predicted rain to fall and give Avilius the chance to win again. He loves getting his toe into the ground. The Japanese horses are here again and are looking to win another Melbourne feature with Kluger and Lys Gracieux.
RT: Ditto. Matty. I’m also in the Avilius camp but the spruik on Lys Gracieux is massive. If she turns up with her best Japanese form, how do they beat her?
MJ: They probably don’t. But if it does rain she gets a soft track and the Japanese horses are used to rock-hard surfaces.