Rosehill tips: Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy
TAB BIG BETS: THE Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy analyse the Golden Rose meeting at Rosehill on Saturday.
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IS Exosphere set to assert his superiority, will Holler upset his stablemate, can Press Statement bounce back or will the filly Speak Fondly create racing history?
These are just some of the queries confronting punters in an intriguing Group 1 $1 million Golden Rose (1400m) at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.
While The Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form guru Ron Dufficy have different opinions on the Golden Rose outcome, they agree that Silverball, Music Magnate, Bounding, Messene and Nancy can all win at Rosehill.
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STABLE TALK: SNOWDEN STRIKES WHILE STARS ARE SHINING
R2: KINGSTON TOWN STAKES (2000m)
Thomas: Silverball was terrific second-up when just beaten by Magic Hurricane in the Premier’s Cup. Magic Hurricane had the drop on Silverball and a 4kg weight pull but took all the straight to get past him. Silverball looks a very classy galloper and third-up at 2000m, he ticks all the boxes. Maurus is a stayer on the rise and drops a lot in weight on Saturday after a very tough last-start Canterbury win. Havana Cooler had excuses at Wyong and deserves another chance.
Dufficy: I’m a bit worried about his meeting because a number of these look good things and Silverball is one of them. He just picks himself. He was beaten a bob of the heads there second-up and they gapped the rest. Havana Cooler is back at Rosehill when he ran so well first-up. Kingdoms is a handy stayer and I’m interested in Foundry. He ran second in a Blamey Stakes last year and this stable has a lot of success when they travel their horses but I think they are racing for second with Silverball in this field.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: 2 Silverball $2-$1.85 ($2,500 @ $2, $1,500 @ $2, $2,438 @ $1.90, $3,950 @ $1.85)
R4: MACK TRUCKS HCP (1200m)
Thomas: Some good sprinters here but I’m leading to Music Magnate simply through the Fell Swoop form. Music Magnate was a good second to Fell Swoop at Randwick and that horse has since won a stakes race at Moonee Valley to frank the formline. Music Magnate is going to enjoy a fast tempo in this race and be very hard to beat. Princefamous and Inz’n’out are racing very well, it is impossible to fault their form, and I give Havana a chance at big odds as he is trialling very well.
Dufficy: Music Magnate only has to overcome traffic problems to win this race. He has had a nice barrier trial hitout since his Randwick run and I rate him an improving horse. Good Project is a better sprinter than his record suggests and he will be steaming home. Sultry Feeling paraded like she has scope for improvement when she won first-up and the stable is on fire. I agree with you about Havana — he is big od at $26 but I’m all over Music Magnate.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Music Magnate $4-$2.80 ($500 @ $4, $2,000 @ $3.50), Inz’n’out $5.50 unchanged ($1,000 @ $5.50)
R5: SHERACO STAKES (1200m)
Thomas: I never thought I’d see the day when I would not pick Catkins in a mares race on her home track at Rosehill but here I am tipping Bounding — and with confidence. Bounding’s win at Caulfield was outstanding where she put a four-length margin on a really good horse in Rich Enuff. It was a stunning effort and I have her clearly on top. Catkins is a super mare, particularly at Rosehill and first-up, and she will race well. Peeping and Fiftyshadesofgrey can be competitive at odds but, Ronnie, I can’t tip against Bounding.
Dufficy: I don’t blame you, Ray. Bounding was absolutely brilliant at Caulfield, she is a class act and should win. She will beat Catkins, who is a terrific mare and has excellent credentials for these mares races. Peeping has had a month to freshen up after beating the boys first-up and I think Slightly Sweet is an underrated mare who runs out well — but Bounding is a standout selection.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Bounding $1.90 unchanged ($1,000 @ $1.90)
R6: GOLDEN ROSE (1400m)
Thomas: I don’t know, Ronnie, who you thought had the more scope for improvement after the Run To The Rose, Exosphere or Press Statement but I was just blown away by Exosphere that day. He gave a start and a beating, winning quite comfortably on the line. He has obviously returned in great order, he is a magnificent, huge colt (weighs 600kg) and he has brilliant acceleration. The only negative is his three wins have been on tracks with give in them. I’m not knocking Press Statement, he is top class, Rageese won easily at Wyong and is a classy colt, and Speak Fondly has been brilliant in her two wins but it is not easy for fillies to beat the boys at this time of year. If there is going to be an upset it might be Sebring Sun.
Dufficy: I’m going for a minor upset, Ray, with Holler. I thought he was the one that paraded with more improvement to come out of the Run To The Rose than Exosphere and Press Statement. Holler knocked up late and ran third but I feel that tough run will stand him in good stead for this race. He will lead and I’m tipping Speak Fondly will take the sit in behind him. If Holler can get a cheap sectional — and I think he will — then he is going to look the winner for a long way. I’m on him each way from Exosphere. I would have tipped the favourite if the jar was out of the track but I still rate him the one to beat. Press Statement is right in the race, and Speak Fondly has stamped herself a top class filly.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Exosphere $2.90-$3 ($800 @ $3), Press Statement $3.80-$3.40, Speak Fondly $5.50-$4.20. Deductions after Gold Symphony scratching — 4c Wins, 4c Place.
R7: THEO MARKS STAKES (1300m)
Thomas: The barrier draw gives Messene his chance. From gate two, he is going to get all the favours in the run, he is a better horse on top of the ground, his two runs back from a spell means he has a race fitness edge, and he was very competitive in a strong Warwick Stakes last start. This is Messene’s chance to win a good race like this. Vashka was great first-up at Randwick, he will certainly improve and he has a perfect Rosehill recorded — four starts for four wins. Winx, Ninth Legion and Turbulent Jet at big odds are not without a chance.
Dufficy: I agree, this is Messene’s race. He is third-up from a long spell, gets a perfect run just in behind the leaders and is at very goods of around $6. Winx is too good to dismiss and is capable at this distance, Vashka has Joao Moriera, a lightweight, and is fitter now. Famous Seamus has had two barrier trials and resumes at 1300m, which suggests to me he must be quite forward.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Strawberry Boy $8-$9 ($2,500 @ $9), Winx $3.80-$4.20, Vashka $9-$4.40 ($500 @ $7.50, $1,000 @ $6, $1,000 @ $5)
R8: TAB REWARDS HCP (1400m)
Thomas: I can’t go past Nancy. She should have won first first-up when a fast finishing second to Shengli. It proved she has returned to racing in very good form and she is a talent. You could argue she should be unbeaten after her first four starts and I have her as my best bet of the day. God’s In Him is a good horse but he has a bit of a task from an awkward barrier.
Dufficy: Nancy is very promising and although I concede this is a lot harder than the midweek race she is coming out of, I can see her settling a bit closer to the leaders from her good draw and out-sprinting her rivals in the run home. She is the one to beat from God’s In Him.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Nancy $3.80-$2.50 ($1,000 @ $3.40, $1,500 @ $3.20, $1,500 & $1,300 @ $2.80, $3,000 @ $2.70)
DUFF’S SUGGESTED BETS
ROSEHILL
Race 2, No. 1: SILVERBALL
Race 4, No. 4: MUSIC MAGNATE
Race 5, No. 1: BOUNDING
BEST VALUE
Race 1, No. 1: THUNDER LADY
Race 6, No. 8: HOLLER
FLEMINGTON
Race 5, No. 8: DISPOSITION
Race 7, No. 14: ALPINE EAGLE
Race 8, No. 6: NOBLE PROTECTOR
TAB MARKET MOVERS
FLEMINGTON
Race 1: Petite Filous $2.30-$1.80 ($2,500 @ $2.25, $5,000 @ $2.05, $1,500 @ $2.05, $1,000 @ $2.05, $2,000 @ $2, $1,250 @ $2, $1,000 @ $2, $1,500 @ $1.85).
Race 2: Sir Laszlo $9-$6.50.
Race 3: Snoopy $8-$6.50 ($300 @ $8, $400 @ $7.50).
Race 4: Ready For Victory $3.40-$3.60 ($1,500 @ $3.40, $1,000 @ $3.40), Black Vanquish $7.50-$5.50 ($800 @ $7.50, $800 @ $6), Raphaels Cat $6.50-$5.50 ($1,454 @ $6.50).
Race 5: Disposition $4.50-$2.80 ($1,000 @ $4, $2,000 @ $3.60, $1,000 @ $2.90).
Race 6: Rich Enuff $3-$2.90-$3.40 ($1,000 @ $3.10), Churchill Dancer $14-$8-$7, Kaepernick $14-$9-$8.
Race 7: Fawkner $8-$6 ($700 @ $8, $600 @ $7), Boban $4.40-$4.20-$4.60-$4.50 ($1,000 @ $4.40 TWICE, $1,000 @ $4.60), Weary $8.50-$11 ($400 e/w @ $10/$3.25), Alpine Eagle $9-$6 ($1,300 @ $7.50).
Race 8: Noble Protector $4-$3.50-$3.70 ($1,500 @ $3.80), May’s Dream $13-$8.50 ($500 @ $11, $500 @ $9), Fenway $26-$19-$21, Madam Gangster $13-$10.
Race 9: Set Square $5-$4.80 ($500 @ $5, $900 @ $4.80, $600 @ $4.80, $500 @ $4.80).
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