Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy
TAB BIG BETS: The Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form guru Ron Dufficy analyse the big races at Randwick and Moonee Valley on Saturday.
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GODOLPHIN duo Hartnell and Contributer, arguably the nation’s best weight-for-age horses, are poised to claim the feature race double on Saturday.
Hartnell is early favourite for the Group 2 $250,000 Chelmsford Stakes (1600m) at Royal Randwick and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form guru Ron Dufficy rates him his best bet on the program, while The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas likes Pornichet in the race. But both agree only bad luck beats Contributer in the Group 2 $250,000 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes (1600m) at Moonee Valley.
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FRIDAY FORMLINE: EXPERT GUIDE TO THE WEEKEND
DATO TAN CHIN NAM: ANALYSIS/CLASS SHOULD TELL
THE EARLY OIL: MOONEE VALLEY PREVIEW
ROYAL RANDWICK
R1: TAB REWARDS HCP (2000m)
Thomas: I am a fan of Astronomos, Ronnie. His run over an unsuitably short 1500m last start was a lot better than it looked and he is much better suited at 2000m. Orion Love’s form is good, Dream Folk and Loophole are good chances
Dufficy: It is an even race but I like the way Orion Love fits in on the map here. She sits behind Phrases and Zayam and gets the right run. Her last two runs have been good and I lean her way at the odds. Loophole is racing well, Astronomos and Sasenkile are chances.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Astronomos $4.20-$3.70-$3.40 ($600 @ $4.20, $500 @ $3.70, $500 @ $3.40 Fri), Sasenkile $11 unchanged ($500 @ $11 Fri).
R2: JOCKEYS TRUST HCP (1600m)
Thomas: I liked Farolitos’s first-up run behind Start Wondering and he will improve. He has ability and will handle the wet track. Wine Tales is obviously the one to beat, she has had no luck at both runs this time in. Mr One Eleven probably should have won at Rosehill and is the other big chance.
Dufficy: At first glance I thought Wine Tales had a lot against her — 60kg, wide draw, up to 1600m and there is no real speed in the race. But then I went looking for others to beat her and I realised she is a good thing. She is head and shoulders above her opposition.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Testashadow $11-$10 ($390 @ $11, $500 @ $10)
R3: MING DYNASTY QUALITY (1400m)
Thomas: Kimberley Star has been in great form and she was closing late on Speak Fondly in the Silver Shadow Stakes. She is back to 1400m which is ideal but her 58kg against the boys just has me a little worried. I know she handles heavy tracks but this won’t be easy. I’m going away from the favourite and selecting Voilier. He has made significant improvement at each of his three run this preparation and is ready to win. Cannyescent is also right in the race.
Dufficy: A very tricky race — anything goes. The obvious lead-up race was the Up And Coming Stakes but it was a bunched finish and the form could be dangerous. I’m leaning to Cannyescent who stamped himself a promising horse coming out of a maiden win at Goulburn to finish an unlucky fifth behind Shards last start. I think he can come on from that again. I’m wary of one at odds in Tap This — she looks like a filly who will get over ground.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Kimberley Star $3.20-$3 ($1,000 @ $3.20 Fri)
R4: FURIOUS STAKES (1200m)
Thomas: Speak Fondly was so dominant in the Silver Shadow Stakes and she is back to the Randwick 1200m on Saturday. This filly has made significant physical progression from her juvenile season and she looked a hulking type racing away with that first-up win. Ottoman is quite forward and ready to fire, Serene Majesty is very promising, Lake Geneva is an each-way chance and English is one to watch.
Dufficy: I’m a little worried that Speak Fondly’s win was a little flattering first-up. She was handed the lead, she wasn’t put under any real pressure and was gifted the race. My money is going to be on Ottoman. I liked her trial, she looked good behind Exosphere, but I will be watching her closely prior to the race to try and judge her fitness levels. I’m not dismissing Perignon’s chances. She has trialled well and they have found Hugh Bowman.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Speak Fondly $3.60-$2.60 ($1,537 @ $3.60, $500 @ $3.40, $1,500 @ $2.90, $1,000 @ $2.90 TWICE, $1,600 @ $2.80, $1,500 @ $2.80), Serene Majesty $7 unchanged ($500 @ $7 Fri)
R5: CONCORDE STAKES (1000m)
Thomas: Ball Of Muscle showed in his trial win last Friday that he has returned in really good order. He has brilliant speed, nothing will lead him early and the Randwick 1000m suits him. His first-up record is excellent and he handles rain-affected tracks. Shiraz has the fitness edge and he showed tremendous fighting qualities in the Aurie’s Star Handicap to make it three on end this campaign.
Dufficy: I like Ball Of Muscle as well — he is yet to miss a place in 13 starts for eight wins, he is two from two at the Randwick 1000m, and the key to this race is no pressure. With the rain coming on Friday, it does take the sprint out of the race and brings Shiraz right back into it.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Ball Of Muscle $4.60-$4.40-$4-$3.20 ($1,000 @ $4.60, $900 @ $4.60, $1,000 @ $4.40, $500 @ $4.40, $500 @ $4.20), Shiraz $4.20-$3.60 ($1,000 @ $4.20, $1,000 @ $3.60 Fri)
R6: CHELMSFORD STAKES (1600m)
Thomas: Great to see a capacity field but I think there are only four winning chances — Pornichet, Royal Descent, Hartnell and Kermadec. I’ve got Pornichet on top as he has had that run back when second to Royal Descent in the Warwick Stakes. Pornichet will take improvement from that run and he will be up on the speed making his own luck. Royal Descent was terrific in the Warwick Stakes and she absolutely loves wet tracks. Hartnell produced a sensational trial effort and he is such a talent, if he won this I would not be at all surprised — everyone is talking Hartnell going into this race. Kermadec won the Doncaster over this course and trip and now he gets this favoured track surface. What a race, Ronnie.
Dufficy: This is a race, Ray. I agree they are the four chances. There are only three go-forward horses in Pornichet, Royal Descent and Hartnell — everything else is a backmarker. I feel James McDonald has to get Hartnell up close to the lead, following Pornichet and Royal Descent and if the does that, he will get it tactically right and Hartnell can win. I just don’t want the track to be too heavy for him. The rain has brought Kermadec and Royal Descent right into this race. Pornichet has had a good toughen up run for the mile and he is not out of it, either. But I just love the way Hartnell is trialling and he could be a star this spring.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Hartnell $3.20 unchanged ($1,000 @ $3.20), Kermadec $4.40 unchanged ($1,000 @ $4.40, $800 @ $4.40, $500 e/w @ $4.40/$1.80)
R7: TRAMWAY STAKES (1400m)
Thomas: I was very confident about Messene — before the rain. I’ve still got him on top but I need the track to get back into the slow at least. He has had two runs back from a spell so he has a decisive fitness edge, he has the tactical speed to get over from the awkward gate, and this is his chance to win a good race — provided the track improves. Godolphin’s trio Sweynesse, Hauraki and It’s Somewhat are all going very well and First Seal has to be respected although she has drawn the car park.
Dufficy: Hauraki is my top pick if he gets a run. He has trialled superbly. Gai Waterhouse has got Arabian Gold going very well in her trials and the rain-affected track won’t hurt her chances. I see your logic with Messene as there are only a few horses with early speed — but this horse is in a bit of trouble on a heavy track. First Seal is an outstanding mare but she has had a setback and now has to contend with a horror draw. I’m going to stick with Arabian Gold with more confidence now from First Seal, Sweynesse and Lucia Valentina comes right into it now the track is in the heavy range. If Hauraki gets a start I’ll be having something on him at the odds.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Messene $8-$7 ($800 @ $8), Lucia Valentina $12-$10-$8 ($400 @ $12, $500 @ $10 Fri), Sweynesse $12-$13-$12, First Seal $3.70-$3.60-$3.80-$3.60 ($500 @ $3.70, $3,000 @ $3.80 Fri), Royal Descent $5-$4.20 ($1,500 @ $1.94 place), $1,000 @ $4 (Fri), Hauraki $10-$9 ($2,000 @ $10)
R8: TAB SUPPORTS JOCKEY TRUST HCP (1400m)
Thomas: Start Wondering was very impressive at his Australian debut, Chris Waller takes these tried horses to a new level so often, and I can see him winning again. Bold Circle and Forget fought out a good finish here two weeks ago, Bohemian Lily and Candelara can sprint well fresh. Ronnie, you found Start Wondering at Rosehill first-up, do you like him again?
Dufficy: He did me a big favour at Rosehill but I am a bit hesitant here. I don’t like the look of the form behind him and it was a bunched finish. I can see a few of these better class horses coming off Brisbane campaigns sprinting well here, most notably Bohemian Lily. She is a very good mare, she was brilliant towards the end of her last preparation, and I want to back her. Start Wondering is the danger and Sadler’s Lake ran a blinder in Ball Of Muscle’s trial and looks to have come up in great order.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Forget $8-$9.50 ($500 @ $9.50), Start Wondering $2.80 unchanged ($700 @ $2.80), Ballet Suite $11-$9.50 ($500 @ $9.50)
MOONEE VALLEY
R7: DATO TAN CHIN NAM STAKES (1600m)
Thomas: Contributer is an outstanding weight-for-age horse, he has a brilliant turn of foot, and he just looks superior to his rivals. He just needs clear galloping room, Ronnie, and he will just win.
Dufficy: You said it, Ray, he only needs clear galloping room and he will win with his head on his chest. I don’t care how fit he is, he is too good for this lot. He has five fresh wins to his credit, he’s a top class horse, and with The Cleaner rolling along upfront it will give Contributer room to get off the fence. Foreteller can improve but we are dreaming up placegetters — Contributer has lengths on this field.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Foreteller $15 unchanged ($500 @ $15 Fri), Mourinho $7-$6.50 ($500 @ $7, $500 e/w @ $7/$2, $300 @ $6.50 Fri), Contributer $2-$1.80 ($1,000 @ $1.80 Fri), The Cleaner $6.50 unchanged ($800 @ $6.50, $600 x $2,000 @ $6.50/$1.91, $1,500 @ $1.91 place Fri)
R8: MCEWEN STAKES (1000m)
Thomas: Chautauqua is arguably the nation’s best sprinter. I realise 1000m isn’t his ideal trip but he has this electrifying burst of acceleration and I can see him finishing right over the top of his rivals late. Furnaces andKuro are chances.
Dufficy: Chautauqua is all class but 1000m is a specialist trip, he is first-up and will be negatively ridden early from the wide draw. So, I think I will back Kuro to beat him. Kuro has never been a horse of mine but he is two from two at 1000m, sets up beautifully from barrier two, has an in-form jockey in Mark Zahra, and he is anther one with residual fitness off a Brisbane campaign. I’ve got him winning from a flying Chautauqua and Furnaces.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Chautauqua $2-$2.35 ($3,000 @ $2.30, $1,000 @ $2.30 Fri), Flamberge $8-$6, Kuro $9-$6.50-$7.50 ($335 @ $9, $300 e/w @ $7/$2.20, $250 @ $7), Furnaces $9-$6
DUFF’S SUGGESTED BETS
ALL UP
Randwick, Race 6, No. 1: HARTNELL
into
Moonee Valley, Race 7, No. 4: CONTRIBUTER
BEST VALUE
Randwick, Race 4, No. 2: OTTOMAN
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