Saturday Best with Nic Ashman and Ron Dufficy

TAB BIG BETS: THE Daily Telegraph’s Nic Ashman and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy dissect Saturday’s Rosehill meeting.

WARWICK FARM RACES

THE Daily Telegraph’s Nic Ashman and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy dissect Saturday’s Rosehill meeting.

HOT TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS

R3: WATAGAN GRANGE HCP (1200m)

Dufficy: There’s big wraps on Ghisoni and she got the job done on debut. I do think she was ridden to win, which perhaps in hindsight was a little too close. James McDonald has options from the good draw and she’s the one to beat. The danger is Strike Force, who trialled well and has talent.

Ashman: The field on paper is tougher than what Ghisoni faced on debut but she was forced to do a bit of work and was soft on the line. It was a better win that what it looked on paper and she gets the perfect chance to go right on with it here.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Ghisoni ($2300 & $1000 @ $2.60), Electric Tribute $51-$21, Sacred Surfer $26-$12, Miss Liffey $15-$10 ($400 @ $15). Deduction 2c for Madotti.

LISTEN TO THE SUPERRACING PREVIEW OF ROSEHILL

R4: TAB HIGHWAY HCP (1500m)

Dufficy: I was keen on High Opinion last start and nothing went right for him. Gets McDonald on and a much better draw — he’s the one they have to beat for mine. I was taken by the win of The Big Rig last start when he was stepped up to the mile. He beat Gambler’s Blues convincingly and that horse ran well last week.

Ashman: I thought Ashjata had no chance when coming wide at Canterbury two starts back then she was forced to work hard last start but was still too good. I’m with you on The Big Rig, just slightly concerned about the wide gate and where he settles or how much petrol Brodie Loy has to burn to get across.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: King’s Officer $51-$21, Royal Jackpot $15-$13, Ashjata $8-$6.50 ($500 @ $6.50), Eccitare $15-$17-$12 ($400 @ $15, $400 @ $13. Deduction 2c x 3c for Duchess Molly; 2c x 2c for Music Man.

BEAT THE BOOKIE: VALUE BETS

ON THE PUNT: PROVINCIAL & COUNTRY PREVIEWS

R5: STARLIGHT STKS (1100m)

Dufficy: The Snowden stable have been waiting for a dry track for That’s A Good Idea and they have found one. They have fiddled around with his gear and I reckon he’s ready to win again. I’m comfortable he will carry the big weight but the one thing I am worried about is Freeze The Charges because he does like to get his own way in front and this horse could upset that. I’m racebook order here — 1,2,3,4.

Ashman: I think Dublin Lass is very well placed here. She’s a progressive sprinting mare that’s only got to run up to her most recent effort to just about win here. Should be able to suck up behind them from the inside gate.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: That’s A Good Idea ($1000 @ $3.20), Dublin Lass $3.50-$2.50, The Monstar $15-$13.

TAB.com.au

R6: GOLDNERS HORSE TRANSPORT (1200m)

Dufficy: I’m prepared to forgive I Am Zelady here. She went out far too hard first-up and was entitled to drop off like she did. Her trials before that were very good and providing that first-up run hasn’t done any harm, she looks right in this. Holy Delusions has been put into foal since we last saw her race and goes well fresh.

Ashman: Last week we saw Fiftyshadesofgrey win on the seven-day back-up. She beat Palazzo Pubblico, who was 29 days between runs but now she’s the one who is backing up and I reckon that will prove the difference in what looks a fast run race. Lucy’s Look trialled well too and must go into your exotics.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Holy Delusions $14-$11 ($500 @ $14), Hebden $16-$15, I Am Zelady $6.50-$5.50.

R7: BEDFORD CA HCP (1500m)

Dufficy: I’ve been with Happy Clapper all his life and I’m not jumping off now. The five weeks between runs in a concern but he has a trial under the belt, maps well and I respect Pat Webster. The danger looks to be Ziggy Willie, who is progressing nicely and since these two last met, he’s had another run.

Ashman: Thought the best thing about Happy Clapper’s trial was Lofiel running along. It ensured he got a decent hitout and made the big boy work. He’s on top for me too, Duff, and like you, think Ziggy Willie is the danger.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: The Rumour File $11-$8, Lofiel $8-$4.60 ($700 @ $8, $700 @ $7), Figtree $11-$15-$13 ($500 @ $15).

R8: FESTIVAL STKS (1500m)

Dufficy: There is a lot of speed engaged here and I reckon that’s going to suit It’s Somewhat. He looks to have trialled OK and isn’t coming off a long break. Tinto ran into dead-ends first-up and can atone here, while Ninth Legion and I’m Imposing are both horses I can entertain to run good races.

Ashman: A race-fit Frespanol will be hard to hold out here and he’s been running on wet tracks and goes better on the dry. Agree with you, Duff, about It’s Somewhat as he’s only got to recapture form from a few months back to be winning this.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: I’m Imposing $26-$13-$18, It’s Somewhat $6-$5, Red Excitement $15-$13, Centre Pivot $11-$13-$11 ($500 @ $13), Heart Testa ($500 @ $17), Peace Force $15-$12. Deduction 2c x 2c for Slate On Edge.

TAB.com.au

R9: RANVET HCP (1200m)

Dufficy: Sure And Fast is a smart horse that carries weight well. The break between runs is of no concern to me and he’s the one to beat over Mohave, who looks trained up to win, along with Religify and Got The Goss.

Ashman: I’m taking a punt on Turbulent Jet being ready first-up. Can produce a whirlwind finish when he’s right.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Got The Goss $14-$12, Religify $4-$3.60-$3.80 ($1000 @ $3.80), Turbulent Jet $12-$10 ($500 @ $12, $700 @ $10), Mohave $8.50-$8, Puzzling Wonder $16-$8.

DUFF’S BEST BETS

Race 4, No. 1: HIGH OPINION

Race 8, No. 2: IT’S SOMEWHAT

Race 9, No. 2: SURE AND FAST

TAB MARKET MOVERS

Rosehill

Race 1: Sinopia $5.50-$4.80, Lucienne $10-$6.50.

Race 2: Best Case $6.50-$5-$5.50-$5 ($800 @ $6), Telepathic ($1500 [twice] @ $1.60).

Moonee Valley

Race 1: Legerity $5.50-$3.80-$4-$3.50-$3.70, Rampage $7-$7.50-$7-$7.50-$6 ($500 @ $7.50, $500 @ $6.50), Theanswermyfriend $7-$5.50 after scratchings ($500 @ $7), Vegas Strip $7-$7.50-$7-$7.50-$5 ($700 @ $7.50, $1000 @ $5. Deduction 18c for Blue Tycoon and Mrs Martin.

Race 2: Gold Busker $51-$21, Les Darci $17-$12, Divine Mr Artie $5-$3.60-$3.70 ($800 @ $5), Niccoco $8-$9-$8-$9 ($1200 @ $9), Rillito $5.50-$4.40-$4.80-$4.60.

Race 3: Whistle Baby $13-$15-$8 ($400 @ $15, $775 @ $8). Deduction 9c for Belle Melba.

Race 4: Imperial Lass $5.50-$4.60, Sure You Can $5.50-$4.60 ($2000 @ $5).

Race 5: Flying Light $4.80-$4.20, Mihalic $3.70-$3.80-$3, She’s Got Speed $15-$17-$14. Deduction 10c for Otherwise Okay.

Race 6: Golden Mane $26-$7, Belorum $7-$6.50, Bascule ($900 @ $10).

Race 7: Churchill Dancer $6-$3.70, Unanimously $12-$8.50 ($400 @ $12).

Race 8: Marli Magic $51-$11, Winston Drive $18-$10, Sea Spray $3.60-$3.50, Melaleuca ($500 @ $6.50).

Race 9: Nicoscene $8-$4.40 ($400 @ $8, $500 @ $6, $500 e/w @ $5/$2), Taddei Tondo $21-$13-$14-$13, Tudor $14-$8 ($500 @ $10), Valiant Warrior $16-$10 ($400 @ $10), Boomwaa $10-$6.50. Deduction 4c x 5c for Bullpit; 3c x 3c for Gallant Harmony.