Randwick tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis
Form expert Ron Dufficy is confident Handspun can strike again while a Chris Waller-trained mare is poised to return to the winners’ circle on the Kensington track at Randwick.
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The Saturday Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central form expert Ron Dufficy debate the chances for the meeting at Randwick — Kensington on Saturday.
SUGGESTED BETS
DUFF’S BEST
Race 5, No.7 TORYJOY
Race 6, No.4 HANDSPUN
VALUE
Race 9, No.4 ZOURHEA
RAY’S BEST
Race 3, No.3, TAILLEUR
VALUE BET
Race 2, No.9, SOPHIE’S LASS
The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!
RANDWICK — KENSINGTON
Track: Heavy 8. Rail: True.
R1 (11.40am): EVEREST CARNIVAL HCP (1400m)
Dufficy: Giovanna Run sets herself up with an encouraging first-up run on a heavy Kensington track earlier this month. She looks an improver who should be okay with the step up in distance. Bazooka ran in a much tougher race against older horses first-up so expect a much better run back against his own age against what looks a moderate lot. Montefilia hasn’t been extended in two trials and is a big query. Stolen Glance is fit and won’t be far away.
Thomas: I’m with you in the opener, Ronnie. Giovanna Run had to make her run wide out and the winner slipped up along the rail to edge her out when resuming. Giovanna Run will be improved by that run and 1400m should be ideal. The David Payne-trained duo of Bazooka and Montefilia are the dangers. Bazooka will find this easier and Montefilia is a filly with staying potential. Squanto will appreciate getting out to this trip.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Squanto $8.50-$6.50-$7.50, Giovanna Run $3.50-$3.30 ($2,000 @ $3.30)
LATEST BETTING: TAB FIXED ODDS
R2 (12.15pm): TAB HIGHWAY HCP (1100m)
Dufficy: I’m not giving up on Foxie La Belle yet. She was just run off her feet over 1000m first-up and this race looks a much better set-up for her. She just needs clear running to wind up from the back. There was no fluke about Leo’s win first-up at big odds but more has to go right from an awkward draw. Skara Brae was good in the lead-up but just has to contend with her outside draw. Mr Magical adds interest with his unbeaten factor.
Thomas: Sophie’s Lass at odds appeals to me. She impressed at Scone first-up over 900m, racing on speed and taking control of the contest to score with authority. Emerging filly, the stable knows how to win these races. She is unknown on heavy tracks but at $15 is worth the gamble. I Am Grande is an underrated filly who gets in with no weight. She chased home a handy type at Cowra last start and they put 10 lengths on the third horse. Skara Brae will be giving them a start from the turn but she has a powerful finish. Unbeaten Mr Magical has looked good in both his wins and the form out of those races is solid.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Niccirose $11-$8.50, Mr Magical $6-$5 ($800 @ $5)
R3 (12.50pm): DE BORTOLI WINS HCP (1100m)
Dufficy: Tailleur looked the part showing real courage to get the job done first-up. She looks a filly that could charge through her classes and will be hard to beat again, although there is plenty of depth in this race. Emeralds is trialling well and she has competed at the top level. This is short of her best distance but she is too good to dismiss. Willowheart is resuming but is a winner on this track and has trialled well enough. Satin Ruby did enough first-up and looks a definite improver.
Thomas: Tailleur had only one trial going into her comeback race but showed her quality to run down the race-fit Switched. She should be better again for that run and is clearly the one to beat. Satin Ruby, a winner and placegetter at her only New Zealand starts, made her debut for the Anthony Cummings stable on this track earlier this month and I liked the way she finished strongly for second behind the handy Dancing Gidget. She is coming back to 1100m, which probably isn’t ideal. Emeralds is the class runner and Killin deserves his chance back in the city area.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Emeralds $7-$7.50-$6.50-$5.50 ($1,000 @ $7.50, $500 @ $7), Tailleur $2.40-$1.95 ($500 @ $4.40, $400 @ $2.30, $4,000 @ $2.25, $500 @ $2 MULTIPLE
TIMES, $500 @ $1.95 TWICE)
R4 (1.25pm): SCHWEPPES HCP (1800m)
Dufficy: Orcein is fit and ready to step up in distance on the back-up. Kiss The Bride made significant improvement second-up and should at least hold that form now. Home Ground did enough when resuming and usually lifts second-up so he gives boom apprentice Tom Sherry a chance to get a winner on his first day in town. Itz Lily won’t know herself with only 53.5kg on her back and is a knockout chance.
Thomas: Kiss The Bride made a long run and looked set to score but might have peaked on his run when a close third to Agassi over 1600m at Randwick. He was second-up that day, will be further improved and is out to his preferred distance range here. Mubariz is finally getting out in trip and he can run an improved race at big odds. Savigne tried hard last start and she is a mare racing well, has a good record on this track and handles heavy going. I’m wary of Home Ground after his good first-up effort.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Kiss The Bride $4.60-$3.90 ($400 @ $4.60, $400 @ $4)
R5 (2pm): QUINCY SELTZER HCP (1800m)
Dufficy: Toryjoy is wound up and has shown a liking for this track in the past. She should be able to control the tempo and give a big sight. Her stablemate Matowi has his hoof on the till and should be in the finish again. Frankely Awesome has found her form but pays the penalty for her stakes win with a big weight here. Agassi is racing well but is up in class and distance.
Thomas: Matowi looks ready to win. He chased down stablemate, Toryjoy only to be ambushed by High Opinion right on the line. Matowi’s at his peak after three runs from a spell and he is well in at the weights. Frankely Awesome won the McKell Cup last start, beating the subsequent Grafton Cup winner Sixties Groove. She is coming back slightly in trip but the claim helps her cause. Toryjoy does look hard to beat and Agassi is racing in great form but the 1800m might test his stamina reserves.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Toryjoy $4.80-$4.20 ($1,000 @ $1.80 PLACE)
R6 (2.40pm): SKY RACING ACTIVE HCP (1400m)
Dufficy: Handspun won with ease over 1300m last start and does look the one to beat again. She’s a mare racing in good form. Spencer was going great prior to not backing up last start. With a three-week freshen-up, he could easily find his form again. Man Of Peace has turned the corner and hasn’t run a bad race for a long time. He will give some cheek again. Dio D’Oro is at his best on heavy tracks and he gets in with a light weight.
Thomas: Handspun’s acceleration was striking as she cleared out to win at Randwick two weeks ago. She had been unlucky at her two previous starts and deserved that success. She’s racing in great form and there is no reason why she won’t win again. Dio D’Oro is a good wet-tracker and is capable of an upset given he gets in so well at the weights. Man Of Peace is tough and genuine, races on speed and will be hard to beat. Thy Kingdom Come goes well on this track.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Handspun $3.50-$3.30-$2.80-$2.40 ($3,000 @ $3.50)
R7 (3.20pm): TAB LIVE VISION HCP (1000m)
Dufficy: Black Magnum usually produces his best performance first-up. He tags a hot speed here and might be hard to hold out. Spaceboy is the danger. He is shooting for three straight, he is a specialist at this distance and has been placed in all three starts on this track. Witherspoon is flying and will be hard to beat again. Rosina Kojonup adds interest. She’s a lightly raced mare with plenty of speed.
Thomas: Spaceboy has always had the talent and has finally learned how to win. His confidence is up and he goes well on this track. The speed battle with Witherspoon and Rosina Kojonup will be enthralling but I’m staying with Spaceboy. Rosina Kojonup is resuming off a long spell but her barrier trial win recently was brilliant. Black Magnum has a lot going for him here and Witherspoon is in great form.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Black Magnum $7-$4.60-$4.40 ($200 @ $7, $200 @ $5.50), Rosina Kojonup $9.50-$10-$6-$5.50 ($400 @ $6$200 x $220 e/w @ $6/$1.90)
R8 (4pm): RANVET HCP (1400m)
Dufficy: Almerheri sets up well third-up in a suitable race at odds. She won her maiden on this track by a big margin and this appears a target race for her. Strawb is a real hype horse doing good things but she has had issues at the start and will be a short odds here. Madam Legend has won a trial since her last start win and has plenty of talent. Vitesse maps well again and is sure to be competitive.
Thomas: I take your point about Strawb’s odds, Ronnie, she is short enough. But I can’t tip against her. She’s a promising mare with a booming finish and is up to this city Saturday class. Almerheri is fitter for two runs back and rates highly. Threeood was back to her old self last start and although she has plenty of weight, she should be competitive again. Madam Legend is another racing well.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Madam Legend $11-$9.50-$8, Almherheri $8-$9-$8 ($500 @ $9, $400 @ $9, $500 @ $8.50), Strawb $2.90-$2.40-$2.50-$2.40 ($400 @ $2.90, $500 @ $2.50 MULTIPLE TIMES, $600 @ $2.40)
R9 (4.40pm): HEINEKEN 3 HCP (1550m)
Dufficy: I’m going for one at big odds in Zourhea. I thought it was a hidden run when a month between runs last start. She won at her previous attempt at this track and distance and is worth the gamble. Le Gai Soleil is promising and the one to beat but is short odds. Convinced had excuses with a slow recovery when in the market last start and could improve. Adana doesn’t win often but is rock-hard fit and going well enough.
Thomas: Le Gai Soleil is the hottest favourite at the meeting and understandably so after reeling off three brilliant wins this campaign. It’s never easy making the transition from midweek grade to Saturday class but this filly is talented. She has brilliant acceleration and is a winner on this track. Assault’n’Bathory is the likely leader and can run a race at big odds down in the weights. Chalmers is another value odds who will be competitive and I’m also giving Convinced another chance.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Le Gai Soleil $2.40-$1.95-$1.75 ($900 @ $2.10, $1,000 @ $1.85), Derbari $9.50-$8.50 ($400 @ $8.50, $200 e/w @ $8.50/$2.30)
RAY THOMAS’S INSIDE MAIL
EARLY QUADDIE
Race 2: 4,8,9,12
Race 3: 2,3,11
Race 4: 1,2,8,9
Race 5: 1,5,7
QUADDIE
Race 6: 1,4,8
Race 7: 1,2,4,11
Race 8: 1,5,7
Race 9: 8,10,11,12
PRICE CHECK
Le Gai Soleil (race 9) has been the big firmer this week. When the markets were first framed, the John O’Shea-trained filly was at $2.40 but steady support for her has resulted in her odds tumbling into $1.75, making her the shortest favourite on the program. She’s won her last three starts in impressive style and is a very progressive filly.
TRIAL POINTERS
Montefilia (race 1) is a David Payne-trained filly who begins her Victoria Oaks countdown here in a suitable race over 1400m against her own age. The filly is well equipped to win the 2500m classic when it comes around being a first crop daughter of Galileo descendant Kermadec. On top of that, her dam is a granddaughter of Monsun who has sired three Melbourne Cup winners. Montefilia was a surprise $51 winner on debut at Newcastle then ran fourth in the Group 3 Baillieu Stakes 22 days later. Montefilia has been kept under wraps in her two trials but impossible to miss running through the line in each one.
Rosina Kojonup (race 7) is an extraordinarily valuable racehorse being a half sister to Golden Slipper winner She Will Reign and Silver Slipper winner Time To Reign. The daughter of Cox Plate winner Shamus Award has shown talent from the outset and has so far managed to win two of her four starts. Granted she has been off the scene for a while but she is clearly in tremendous shape ahead of what should rightfully be an ambitious spring campaign judging by her easy win over Single Bullet in a Warwick Farm heat earlier on this month. Importantly, both of her siblings are peerless mudlarks.
SECTIONAL STARS
Le Gai Soleil (race 9) has done a tremendous job to get this far so (relatively) soon in her career with three wins and a third from her four appearances. John O’Shea has managed her skilfully from the outset and introduces her to Saturday Metropolitan racing off a booming near last to first win on the same Kensington track as she races on. In winning her Benchmark 70 mission last start, Le Gai Soleil ran 35.81s for the last 600m hitting the line with a full head of steam.
Tailleur (race 3) is an unbeaten and thoroughly exciting filly by Shooting To Win in the Godolphin camp. The James Cummings trained bay was put on ice after her thumping win at Gosford in a maiden in the summer only to resume with a much narrower but enormously brave win at Randwick on July 4. A half-sister to stakes winner Raiment, Tailleur returned a 35.12s last 600m and a 12.14s last 200m; neither split was bettered on the entire card that day.
THE JUDGMENT
What the experts say ...
RANDWICK - KENSINGTON
R6: SKY RACING ACTIVE HCP (1400m)
Paul Joice (Sky Racing): “Dio D‘Oro represents great value. On the quick back-up after hitting the line hard over 1200m last week. Lightweight knockout. Handspun has the recent form on the board and is a deserved favourite. Man Of Peace to take catching.’’
Glenn Munsie (Sky Racing): “Louise Day looks like controlling the race here on Man Of Peace from mid draw. Led for a very long way at Flemington off the back of three solid efforts since returning from a spell. Wet poses no concerns and is hard fit. Dio D’oro is an excellent heavy track runner ready to go at third run in. Handspun must be respected but no value at $2.40 with nowhere the speed in this race unlike last start.’’
Grant Palmer (bookie): “Handspun is a deserved favourite after showing a good turn of foot to put them away last start. She looks to get a similar run here and will be hard to beat. Man Of Peace will be in front for a long way and can upset the favourite if he gets some cheap sectionals.’’
Andrew Georgiou (TAB): “Handspun has been heavily backed and is the one for mine. Our customers are all over it.’’
Verdict: HANDSPUN
R7: HEINEKEN 3 HCP (1300m)
Paul Joice (Sky Racing): “Biscara looks the value. Won on the course proper two starts back and recent trial extremely pleasing. Maps to trail the hot tempo so should be poised to strike. Rosina Kojonup trialling the house down for her return. Black Magnum great fresh.’’
Glenn Munsie (Sky Racing): “Stand back and watch them fly! Rosina Kojonup, Spaceboy and Buckin’ Beauty look to hold out Witherspoon from a wide draw but it’s pedal to the metal from the start. Certainly looks a set-up which suits Black Magnum who flies fresh and handles wet. Tom Sherry, riding at his first metropolitan meeting, should position this guy midfield on fence sweating on the leaders coming back. Looks a race put on for him.’’
Grant Palmer (bookie): “Interesting race with both Spaceboy and Witherspoon both shooting for 3 straight wins. They are both noted leaders so if they overdo it up front it will leave the door open for a horse like Black Magnum to swoop over the top of them. There has also been a specking at odds for Phoenix River who is first up after two soft trials.’’
Andrew Georgiou (TAB): “They have been very keen to back Black Magnum and Rosina Kojonup. They are commanding the lion‘s share of investments.’’
Verdict: BLACK MAGNUM
R8: RANVET HCP (1400m)
Paul Joice (Sky Racing): “Almerheri is proven around this circuit and set to peak third-up. Rawiller sticks. Looks a great each-way bet. Strawb is the boom horse coming off two big provincial wins. High Low Bet loves these winter tracks and can add value to the multiples.’’
Glenn Munsie (Sky Racing): “Strawb comes to town, bypassing midweeks and straight to Saturday grade. Strikes a below-par race but can’t be excited about $2.40 on offer at present. Promising and maybe untapped which can’t be said for the majority of these but has to be hard to beat. Throw at the stumps with Pressure resuming and will be strong at finish off the back of a nice trial at Warwick Farm recently. Something small and exotics with favourite.’’
Grant Palmer (bookie): “I thought Vitesse looked the value here. Brenton Avdulla gave her a great front running ride to get the chocolates last start and he takes the reins again. Strawb has been very impressive at the provincial races but has to prove herself here. She has been slightly easy in early markets with punters.’’
Andrew Georgiou (TAB): “Strawb is one of the best supported runners on the card. Has been backed since Wednesday when $2.90 was offered.’’
Verdict: STRAWB
SATURDAY EXTRA
SHAYNE O’CASS’S TOP PICKS
KEMBLA GRANGE
BEST BET: ACCOLADE (Race 4, No.1)
Godolphin grandson of dual Group 1 winner Virage De Fortune who looked the goods when he won his trial at Warwick Farm 13 days ago. Drawn ideally if he can off the fence that is.
NEXT BEST: SAIGON (Race 6, No.7)
Her dam Saigon Tea was a pure mudlark. This Waller filly gave away 2-lengths at the start and won by nearly as much first-up at Newcastle. Perfectly placed to win again.
VALUE: KATTEGAT (Race 7, No.8)
Former Godolphin galloper who has thrived since he joined the Natalie Jarvis stable. Runs on powerfully, hopefully down the outside fence.
JOCKEY TO FOLLOW
KOBY JENNINGS has only four rides at Kembla but three of them can win, one of them — Accolade — should just about win if he handles the wet track.
QUADDIE
Race 4: 1
Race 5: 3,4,9
Race 6: 2,7
Race 7: 4,8
LISMORE
BEST BET: QADIRA STAR (Race 2, No.8)
Gave a very good account of herself at $31 when she finished fourth on debut at Taree. Can only be better for the race-day experience. Go well here.
NEXT BEST: DAUNTING WARRIOR (Race 4, No.1)
One of a handful of horses still left racing out of an Octagonal mare, this gelding has two seconds from three runs at the track/distance. Ready to win now.
VALUE: ILIA (Race 5, No.6)
Veteran mare having her 84th start today but surely retains her zest for racing with back to back placings at her last couple. Gets her big chance for an eighth win today.