Rosehill tips: Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy

TAB BIG BETS: THE Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy analyse the big races at Rosehill and Caulfield on Saturday.

CATKINS and Press Statement are both long odds-on favourites and should win but the rest of a competitive Rosehill Gardens program on Saturday is wide open.

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The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy agree the Chris Waller-trained duo of Catkins and Press Statement will be too good for their rivals in the Golden Pendant and Stan Fox Stakes, but the rest of the program is not as clear-cut, with Dufficy finding some value runners.

INSIDE MAIL: BIG BETS & MARKET MOVERS

HOT TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS

FRIDAY FORMLINE: HORSES TO FOLLOW

R2: STAN FOX STAKES (1400m)

Thomas: Press Statement and Rageese dominate the betting and should dominate the race. It is well documented that Press Statement had no luck when fifth to Exosphere in the Golden Rose. I feel going to 1500m will suit as does the small field. Rageese finished in front of Press Statement last start and the further he goes the better. Shards is the only other chance for mine.

Dufficy: I can’t get away from the favourite Press Statement. He obviously had no luck in the Golden Rose and Hugh Bowman can just ride his own race here from the beautiful draw. He has 12 Benchmark points on his nearest rival yet meets them at level weights. Shards was too bad to be true in the Golden Rose. There was a lot of stable confidence about him going into the Golden Rose so I have to give him another chance. Rageese is the other contender although I feel a drop of rain will enhance his claims.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Press Statement $1.65-$1.40 after some big bets including $2,000 at $1.65, $10,000 at $1.60 and $2,000 at $1.50.

Press Statement has a class edge on his rivals in the Stan Fox. Picture: Simon Bullard

R3: COLIN STEPHEN QUALITY (2400m)

Thomas: This race is a traditional The Metropolitan lead-up but the horse I’m going for is not even nominated for next week’s race and that is Amelie’s Star. She was still a maiden three starts back but has really impressed me winning her last three in succession by big margins. She handles dry or wet tracks and is a real up-and-comer. I’ve got her on top from Kingdoms, who is fitter for two runs from a spell. The Gai Waterhouse-trained pair of King Kinshasa and Bohemian Lily are also among the hardest to beat.

Dufficy: Amelie’s Star has been amazing going through the classes and she looked really good at Warwick Farm last start. But Amelie’s Star is still a 75 Benchmark and the next lowest rated horse is an 83. I know Benchmark figures aren’t everything and she can defeat them, she is a progressive mare, but I like King Kinshasa. I was taken by his effort tin the Kingston Town Stakes. He was coming out of what I thought was a weak race at Hawkesbury but he ran really competitively in a strong Kingston Town where he led and boxed on strongly. He has won over 2400m overseas and is a promising stayer — there is a lot of upside to him. I respect Amelie’s Star and the way she is going, she is an in-form mare who is absolutely flying. Kingdoms stuck on well in the Kingston Town Stakes and is close to his peak, while Bohemian Lily is a good mare but gets to 2400m very quickly.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Amelie’s Star $4-$3 with bets of $1,200 at $4, $1,500 at $3.60, $2,000 at $3.

R4: REGINALD ALLEN QUALITY (1400m)

Thomas: I was confident about Flamboyant Lass for the Tea Rose Stakes last week but she was a race-eve scratching so I have to stick with her in what looks an easier race here. Her first-up win was simply outstanding against older horses but I realise she is a month between runs and jumps from 1000m to 1400m. Bookies will probably takes risks with her — I hope so, anyway — because I think she is a top class filly and will be too good for these. Denpurr and Ocean Tempest fought out the finish of a midweek Warwick Farm race and are promising fillies. Alart is underrated and did a good job beating older horses at Scone last start.

Dufficy: There are a lot of negatives with Flamboyant Lass but I agree she is very likable and too good to dismiss. However, I am going around her because she was lame last week, they have put hoof filler on her this week and she has had a month between runs. All things being equal, she would be a certainty but I’m risking her. I have found one at double figures odds in Alart. She ran very fast time beating the older, tough bush sprinters at Scone. There has always been a wrap on her and she is back to fillies grade where some of her rivals are just out of maiden grade. Flamboyant Lass could win this by panels but what is her best distance range and what has happened to her in the last month? Tremezzina had to do too much work from a wide draw at Warwick Farm and will improve, Denpurr was good winning first-up but I’m happy to back Alart each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Flamboyant Lass $3.20-$2.70 with bets of $1,000 at $2.80, $700 at $2.80, Ocean Tempest $11-$9.50.

Flamboyant Lass is back on track after missing the Tea Rose Stakes. Picture: Mark Evans

R5: GLOAMING STAKES (1800m)

Thomas: The Spring Stakes at Newcastle is invariably a good horses race and I’m going with the form from last week’s race even though it was a bunched finish. Tatoosh just failed to run down Devil Hawk at Newcastle but I think he can turn the tables here. Tatoosh has raced consistently at a high level right through an extended campaign, he is very fit and I feel 1800m will suit him. No knock on Devil Hawk, he is obviously a promising young stayer, Vanbrugh produced his best form at Warwick Farm, against the older horses and may have turned the corner now. Gold Ambition was a closing third in the Spring Stakes so I’m not ruling him out.

Dufficy: I don’t know what to do here. Unlike you, Ray, I’m not totally convinced on the Spring Stakes as it was a bunched finish. I have found one out of a class 2 at Kembla Grange in Man Of Choice. I’ve always liked this horse and although he has been beaten in town previously, he really impressed me last start once he got out to 1600m last start. I have him mapping beautifully here, getting the run of the race. Devil Hawk was strong to the line at Newcastle and will run well again. Vanbrugh is back in winning form and might be ready to realise his potential. Tatoosh keeps running nice races.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Vanbrugh $4-$3.40, Man Of Choice $7-$5 with bets of $200 at $7, $300 at $6.50, $750 e/w at $6/$2.11.

R6: GOLDEN PENDANT (1400m)

Thomas: Catkins is too short to back but I can’t tip against her. She was brilliant first-up and is a marvellous mare. She should win but her record at 1400m isn’t sensational with one win from nine attempts, and she has been beaten more often than she has won second-up. But she was very good in the Sheraco two weeks ago and only has to reproduce that effort to win again. If there is to be a boilover, it could be Berry Delicious. She had no luck at Newcastle last start where with clear running I’m sure she would have been in the finish.

Dufficy: Catkins is a sensational mare and won with her head on her chest when resuming. She is suited by these set weights and penalties conditions and only bad luck will beat her. Arabian Gold was good first-up and her second-up form is solid. Back to her own sex, she is the danger to Catkins. Slightly Sweet is an underrated mare — but I can’t go away from the favourite, Catkins, she is clearly on top.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Slightly Sweet $13-$11.

Catkins returned to her best in the Sheraco Stakes. Picture: Simon Bullard

R7: SHANNON STAKES (1500m)

Thomas: Ninth Legion was very good first-up at in the Theo Marks Stakes and was going to win but his condition just gave out in the last 100m and he was swamped by Winx and Sons Of John. He’s fitter, drawn well and will get the turn of the race here. The danger is Messene — I’m going to give him one more chance. He was disappointing in the Theo Marks but the Hawkes camp maintains he had excuses. Like Ninth Legion he has a soft draw and will get the right run. Vashka is the big improver. He has had two runs back now and is suited by the course and trip. On a cautionary note, this trio all need a firm track. God’s In Him handles it wet or dry and he is in great form.

Dufficy: I like Akavoroun. He ran a terrific race first-up and is with a very astute trainer in Ciaron Maher. Akavoroun looks beautifully placed with 54kg on his back here. If we get some rain he is even better suited. I’m Imposing was very good in the Chelmsford and I feel he can be very competitive in an open race. Ninth Legion, I agree, was excellent first-up where he looked above himself in condition and will only improve. God’s In Him won well when resuming and is an improving galloper.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: I’m Imposing $15-$9.50 with a $500 wager at $13, Akavoroun $6.50-$5 with bets of $600 at $6.50, $400 at $5.50.

CAULFIELD

R7: UNDERWOOD STAKES (1800m)

Thomas: Contributer or Fawkner? I think it comes down to this pair, Ron. Contributer wasn’t at his best around Moonee Valley where he didn’t get a lot of galloping room from an inside draw. He is better suited getting out to 1800m and can bounce back to winning form. Fawkner was very brave winning the Makybe Diva Stakes first-up and he will only improve. The Cleaner keeps running great races and will be in front for a long way. The Kiwis, Mongolian Khan and Volkstok’n’barrell will make their presence felt.

Dufficy: This is not a race for “softies” because The Cleaner will bowl along upfront and set a genuine tempo. I’m not convinced The Cleaner’s record at Caulfield is a good as Moonee Valley. I like Dandino. He was terrific second-up where he had absolutely no luck, he gets to 1800m and with the speed on upfront, it sets up for a horse like him. We know Dandino is a strong stayer and he did run second in the Caulfield Cup. Mongolian Khan will tough it out well, Contributer is better than he showed at Moonee Valley but the market has found him. No knock on Fawkner, he is a great horse and will be hard to beat.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Fawkner $3.80-$3.60 ($1,000 @ $3.60 TWICE), Contributer $4-$4.20-$3.80 ($1,000 @ $4.20, $1,000 @ $4 TWICE)

Dandino could be the surprise packet in the Underwood Stakes. Picture: Ian Currie

R8: SIR RUPERT CLARKE STAKES (1400m)

Thomas: This looks a very open race but the barrier draw has me coming back to Disposition. The more I study this race the more I am about his winning chances. Disposition was brilliant first-up at Flemington, he’s drawn to get the right run and he looks the one they all have to beat. It would be good to see the Freedman-Oliver trainer-jockey combination back in Group 1-winning form. I rate Cosmic Endeavour highly as both her runs have been very good this spring. Strawberry Boy and Rich Enuff have both drawn right off the track but if they have any luck getting across early they are capable of being right in the finish.

Dufficy: I agree, Ray, Disposition looks untapped, his record is very good, he has a nice draw and should be right in the finish. Under The Louvre ran well second-up and he has a strong finishing burst. Cosmic Endeavour sets-up nicely here third-up. Rich Enuff will be over the odds because of his wide draw but I don’t mind the barrier. I hope they let him run, go back to his old ways when he ran them into the ground. He can come across from the wide draw and give them something to chase.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Under The Louvre $16-$7.50-$5 ($2,500 @ $2.25 place, $1,000 @ $6, $600 @ $5, $500 @ $5), Amicus $18-$15

DUFF’S SUGGESTED BETS

ROSEHILL

Race 4, No. 4: ALART

Race 5, No. 6: MAN OF CHOICE

Race 7, No. 7: AKAVOROUN

CAULFIELD

Race 7, No. 2: DANDINO

CAULFIELD MARKET MOVERS

Race 2: Murqaba $2.90-$3 ($1,000 @ $3), Kansas Sunflower $4-$3.20 ($750 @ $3.70, $500 @ $3.50, $1,500 @ $3.40).

Race 3: Craftiness $3.70-$2.60 ($1,000 @ $3.50, $1,500 @ $3.20, $1,363 @ $3.20, $1,000

@ $3.10).

Race 4: Deductions — Foundry 28c Win 20c Place

Race 5: Jameka $13-$10, Alaskan Rose $8-$7 ($200 @ $8 TWICE), Miss Gunpowder $7-$5 ($650 @ $7, $1,001 @ $5.50).

Race 6: Ready For Victory $2.90-$3.30 ($1,500 @ $3.30, $1,000 @ $3.30), Dan Cielo $35-$18, Snoopy $16-$11, Dark Steel $11-$12-$10, Spieth $12-$10.

Race 7: Fawkner $3.80-$3.60 ($1,000 @ $3.60 TWICE), Contributer $4-$4.20-$3.80 ($1,000 @ $4.20, $1,000 @ $4 TWICE).

Race 8: Under The Louvre $16-$7.50-$5 ($2,500 @ $2.25 place, $1,000 @ $6, $600 @ $5, $500 @ $5), Amicus $18-$15.

Race 9: Iggimacool $5-$4.40 ($1,500 @ $5, $900 @ $4.50), Zebrinz $10-$8, Takenja $5-$4.60.