Melbourne Cup: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy preview each runner in the big race
Racing editor Ray Thomas and form expert Ron Dufficy debate each runner’s chances in the Melbourne Cup. One is sticking with the locals, while the other is tipping Aidan O’Brien to end his Cup drought.
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Melbourne Cup: Fast form to find a winner
The Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate each runner’s chances in the Melbourne Cup at Flemington on Tuesday.
DUFF’S CUP SELECTIONS
20. IL PARADISO
18. Surprise Baby
23. Vow And Declare
Next Best
3. Master Of Reality
1. Cross Counter
LATEST BETTING: TAB FIXED ODDS
RAY’S CUP SELECTIONS
11. FINCHE
1. Cross Counter
2. Mer De Glace
24. Youngstar
Next best
8. Mustajeer
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$8m MELBOURNE CUP (3200m)
Race 7 (3pm): Flemington
1. CROSS COUNTER
Dufficy: He has been ticking along well since winning this race last year. He is a more seasoned and mature horse now. We all know he is up 6.5kg but he has a perfect barrier (5) to position better than he did last year. He is a terrific chance.
Thomas: Cross Counter is the reigning Cup champ and very effective at 3200m. He finished brilliantly to win the Melbourne Cup last year but only had 51kg and has to shoulder 57.5kg on Tuesday. No international stayer has won this race with more than 56.5kg. Drawn a soft barrier in five so he won’t need to settle as far back as he did last year when he started from out wide. He’s a top three chance.
2. MER DE GLACE
Dufficy: It’s hard to knock a horse with his winning strike-rate and his greatest asset is his turn of speed. It is better than anything else in this field. His issues are if we get a soft track, as all his form is on fast tracks. Also, with the Irish controlling the speed they will be trying to take the string out of his sprint. Considering his price, the likely track conditions and the tempo, I have to oppose him. There is a chance he is too brilliant for 3200m.
Thomas: How impressive was Mer De Glace in the Caulfield Cup! He showed a brilliant burst of speed to put that race away in a few strides. The Japanese stayer has never raced beyond 2400m which is the query. He will start out of barrier two which should ensure he gets every chance to run the trip. The Caulfield Cup is traditionally the best Melbourne Cup trial and he should be very hard to beat.
CUP TIPS: OUR EXPERTS PICK THEIR WINNERS
3. MASTER OF REALITY
Dufficy: There are a lot of people wanting to pot this horse but I’m not one of them. I think he has a good chance for Frankie (Dettori). His Ascot Gold Cup run three starts back over 4000m was outstanding. He might lack a turn of speed but I like his style for a race like this. He will run very well.
Thomas: Master Of Reality won the Vintage Crop Stakes earlier this year then ran a very competitive third to Stradivarius in the Ascot Gold Cup. His latest run was a fifth in the Irish St Leger but he wasn’t suited by the indifferent race tempo that day. For a lightly raced gelding who’s best win is at Group 3 level the handicapper hasn’t missed him with 55.5kg but that run at Ascot shows he’s a classy stayer.
4. MIRAGE DANCER
Dufficy: Mirage Dancer had solid overseas form prior to a super Caulfield Cup run. I do have a little query on him at 3200m. He’s best form is around 2400m. No knock on him for anyone who likes this horse but I don’t have him in my numbers.
Thomas: Mirage Dancer ran some very good races during the English summer including places in the Hardwicke Stakes, Princess of Wales Stakes and Glorious Stakes, so it wasn’t surprising when he ran so well in the Caulfield Cup, finishing strongly for third. Top class former English stayer who has made his reputation around 2400m.
5. SOUTHERN FRANCE
Dufficy: He has competitive form around all the right horses. He also has the Maher-Eustace factor to put that final polish on him. But I also have a little query on him at the distance when I look back on his form. He has been thereabouts in everything he has contested and will be likeable to some.
Thomas: Southern France brings strong staying form to this race, having won the Irish St Leger Trial, beating Cup rivals Downdraft and Master Of Reality before his third in the Irish St Leger. He hasn’t raced in Melbourne this spring but his overseas form is impressive. There’s plenty of good judges on his side.
6. HUNTING HORN
Dufficy: He has been used as a pacemaker in all those races around the world. The first time they rode him to race, in the Moonee Valley Cup, he finished off strongly and won. But, it was hardly a competitive race the way it was run, there was a slow tempo and he just kept grinding away. I don’t know how he will react to a hard run 3200m.
Thomas: The much-travelled Hunting Horn has raced in a series of Group 1 races in Dubai, America, England, back to America and Ireland and now Australia this year. He has run some nice races without placing before a strong staying performance to win the Moonee Valley Cup last start. He looks to be in great order and could give Aidan O’Brien his first Melbourne Cup.
7. LATROBE
Dufficy: He was very good last year running second in the Mackinnon but his form this preparation has been a little patchy. There has to be a doubt about him at 3200m, particularly given the draw. I would have preferred him in the Mackinnon again.
Thomas: Latrobe did win the Irish Derby last year and came to Melbourne where he ran second in the Mackinnon Stakes. His form in England and Ireland this year has been consistent, including his Ballyroan Stakes win at The Curragh. His worst run of the year came last start in the Irish St Leger when the slow early tempo was against him. He’s run well up to 2800m and should stay the trip.
8. MUSTAJEER
Dufficy: I think Mustajeer stays better than a lot of his rivals and that’s a fact. I have a little reservation about how good the Ebor form is but considering the set-up of this race, the fact he has some soft track form, Damien Oliver to steer – he’s got a bit going for him.
Thomas: Mustajeer produced a strong staying performance then Caulfield Cup run was also very good as he got a long way back early, was forced wide on the turn. He was still working home well late in the race. I think he is one of the better longshots in the race.
9. ROSTROPOVICH
Dufficy: There were a few excuses for him in the Caulfield Cup but there is no evidence to suggest he can go well here. A win would be a real shock.
Thomas: If the Rostropovich turns up that run in the Cup last year, he can run a very competitive race. He ran fifth behind Cross Counter 12 months ago but his form this spring has been disappointing. In his defence, he’s had little luck but here he gets to Flemington and 3200m which suits. I just can’t make a case for him with any confidence.
10. TWILIGHT PAYMENT
Dufficy: This horse is at big odds but he is an on-pace type, he should push forward and they have Hugh Bowman in the saddle. The betting market says no but it will be interesting to see if there is a tip for him on Tuesday.
Thomas: He could be the knockout runner of the Cup. There’s a lot of people wanting to tip this horse a top three chance. There were excuses for his Irish St Leger effort and his previous runs were very good. He was strong through the line to win the Curragh Cup from Latrobe. Hugh Bowman rides, so that should give his supporters added confidence.
11. FINCHE
Dufficy: Finche ran a bold race to finish fourth in the Cup last year. Chris Waller has had one race in mind since and that day has arrived. He is ticking every box. We know his record at 3200m, he can camp on four or five here, and he has been trained to the minute. I feel he has had a better preparation than last year, all his lead-up form is great and a soft track is no issue. Nearly a deserved favourite.
Thomas: Finche is my top selection for the Cup. He was very good in the Melbourne Cup last year, finishing fourth, and he’s a stronger, more mature stayer this spring. He won the Kingston Town Stakes and probably should have won the Turnbull Stakes. His Caulfield Cup effort when forced to cover extra ground was outstanding. He’s got good gate speed and can take full advantage of his favourable barrier (4). Finche will be in this race for a long way.
12. PRINCE OF ARRAN
Dufficy: I think the market has underplayed him, he should be shorter. He is a real warrior, ran well in this race last year to finish third, and his two lead-up runs in Melbourne this spring have been very good. The market is judging him on his European form but if he is judged purely on his Australian form then he has a fantastic chance.
Thomas: I’ve left Prince Of Arran out of my top four but I concede he’s a huge winning chance. He ran a great race to finish third in the Cup last year and I feel he’s had a better preparation this year with more time between runs. His Geelong Cup win was another determined, tough staying effort. He’s very genuine and should be very competitive again.
13. RAYMOND TUSK
Dufficy: If you are giving Mustajeer a chance you must give Raymond Tusk a good hope, too. He got a long way back in the Ebor and had to weave through the field to finish fourth. He is in good hands with Richard Hannon and is probably the biggest street corner tip in this race. Everyone is telling me he is one of the best chances among the European stayers.
Thomas: He hasn’t been over-raced but has shown glimpses of staying talent. He’s a Group 2 winner and his last-start fourth in the Ebor Handicap behind Mustajeer was very good. I haven’t got him among the main chances but there are others who rate this English stayer as a contender.
14. DOWNDRAFT
Dufficy: Any horse that carries more than 56.5kg to win a Hotham Handicap finishes right up there in the Cup. For Downdraft to carry 59kg last Saturday to win well tells me he has a good chance here. The Moonee Valley Cup was slowly run, which didn’t suit, but when he was ridden to show his staying prowess, he did a really good job to win. All of a sudden, he has come from nowhere to be one of the chances.
Thomas: I thought Downdraft ran an even race when third in the Moonee Valley Cup but he surprised me with his acceleration to win the Hotham Stakes last Saturday. On that run, he would be a chance but having his third run in less than two weeks is not the ideal preparation.
15. MAGIC WAND
Dufficy: The interesting point for me is that Ryan Moore wants to waste to ride her and that’s a good push in itself. I know she has a poor winning strike-rate but that doesn’t matter much overseas. There is a little query about her at 3200m but you have to admire her Cox Plate effort and that’s top class form.
Thomas: She might be one of the best horses in the field but can she stay 3200m? Her run in the Cox Plate to finish fourth was good after she led on the turn. She is a six-time Group 1 runner-up so no doubting her class. Drawn the extreme outside barrier so she may need to do a bit of work early to get across by the first turn.
16. NEUFBOSC
Dufficy: He would need to find some of his old form very, very quickly. I can’t have him on recent form.
Thomas: Neufbosc was considered good enough to run in the Arc last year, although he finished well down the track behind champion Enable. But he hasn’t fired a shot in five starts this spring.
17. SOUND
Dufficy: I didn’t mind his Caulfield Cup run. I think he is going better than he did last year and this stable has produced some surprising results over the years but I think they missed an opportunity to get a win by not running him in the Hotham.
Thomas: Sound nearly beat subsequent Caulfield Cup winner Best Solution in a Group 1 race in Germany last year but he has struggled to get anywhere that form in eight Australian starts. He’s just not going well enough.
18. SURPRISE BABY
Dufficy: He is a great Aussie hope. He has a terrific winning strike-rate for a stayer with five wins from 10 starts. His Adelaide Cup win after a 2000m lead-up at just his sixth start was unbelievable. His two lead-up runs have been solid, he has a big set of lungs on him and will be hard to beat.
Thomas: The son of the 2009 Melbourne Cup winner Shocking, Surprise Baby is not without a winning chance. He won the Adelaide Cup over 3200m in March and was just edged out by Steel Prince in a thriller for the Andrew Ramsden Stakes. He has looked good in two runs this spring, particularly his dominant win in the Bart Cummings. Surprise Baby may not have the class of some of his rivals but he can stay and is right down in the weights.
19. CONSTANTINOPLE
Dufficy: There is a few knocking him but he is a young, imported stayer with solid European form. He had no luck but produced a good run in the Caulfield Cup to finish fourth. They paid plenty for him but they might just get a quick return here. The negative for me is that he’s a little short in the market.
Thomas: Constantinople has been at the top of near top of Cup betting since his excellent effort to run fourth in the Caulfield Cup, where he struck plenty of trouble in the run. There was a lot to like about the way he powered through the line and he should run a strong 3200m. His inexperience is a concern but he is a real staying talent. He gets in with only 52.5kg and the big Flemington track suits him. Hard to beat.
20. IL PARADISO
Dufficy: I’m having a throw at the stumps with Il Paradiso – and it’s only off the one run in the Lonsdale Cup, where he ran a close third. He fits the right profile of a lightly-weighted European stayer who can race on speed. His run two starts back can win this race. I also like the fact they have thrown the blinkers on him.
Thomas: I can see where you are coming from Ronnie, a lot of people are jumping on the Il Paradiso bandwagon. He hasn’t even won a stakes race but he was only beaten just over a length by champion Stradivarius in the Lonsdale Cup over 3250m. He then ran fifth to Logician in the English St Leger, so he has been competitive in the right races in England. Aidan O’Brien is going to win a Melbourne Cup one day and this could be his chance.
21. STEEL PRINCE
Dufficy: He has had that setback and they seem to be chasing their tail. It wasn’t long ago when Steel Prince and Surprise Baby seemed to be tied at the hip but the market now has Steel Prince at $67 and Surprise Baby at $15.
Thomas: Former Irish stayer showed promise last spring running second to subsequent Sydney Cup winner Shraaoah in the 2800m race on Cup Day. He came of age during the autumn reeling off five successive wins, including the Andrew Ramsden Stakes, which secured him a Cup start. But, as you pointed out Ronnie, he has had an interrupted preparation this spring and needs to improve on his Geelong Cup effort.
22. THE CHOSEN ONE
Dufficy: I can’t have him. I’ve got all the respect in the world for his trainer, Murray Baker, but it is hard to make a case for him, although he did beat Prince Of Arran three starts back. I would have liked him to do more at his last two starts.
Thomas: The Chosen One was the unlucky runner in the ATC Australian Derby in the autumn and ended his three-year-old campaign with an impressive win in the Packer Plate. His form has been solid but not spectacular this spring, although he did run down Prince Of Arran to win the Herbert Power. I can’t see him winning a Melbourne Cup but he could sneak into the top six.
23. VOW AND DECLARE
Dufficy: I like the way this horse has been handled by Danny O’Brien. He won a 3000m race in Brisbane during the winter and we know he can stay all day. His two runs this spring have been superb, his Caulfield Cup run in particular, and Flemington will suit him. It’s a bit inconclusive how he will go on a soft track as I would prefer him on a good surface but he is in my numbers.
Thomas: There is a lot to like about him. His Tatt’s Cup win over 3000m at Eagle Farm late last season was very impressive as he put a big margin on his chasing rival, the good stayer Big Duke. Vow And Declare has gone to another level this spring with a closing fourth in the Turnbull Stakes and an outstanding second in the Caulfield Cup. He’s one of only two Australian-bred horses in the race and he can win the Melbourne Cup.
24. YOUNGSTAR
Dufficy: I think she will run a lot better than everyone thinks. She ran a great race in the Cup last year and she has been held back from running in a distance race until last start, where she showed something in a slowly run race. She will run well and the sting out of the ground helps her cause.
Thomas: I thought her St Leger run was indicative of mare who has gradually worked her way back into form and will peak for this race. Youngstar did run sixth in the Melbourne Cup last year so we know she is capable of running well in this race. She’s only got 52kg and I think she is the best value runner in the field.