Melbourne Cup weather outlook is heavy rain, so which horses can win in the wet?
RACES were delayed as rain lashed Flemington on Melbourne Cup Day, providing another complication to picking the winner. Who should you back in the wet?
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MELBOURNE Cup weather is key to the race. And it’s wet this year. Really wet.
There was a deluge at Flemington this morning before the skies cleared, to the relief of racegoers, jockeys, trainers, owners - and officials who had been anxiously looking above.
More than 15mm fell in the lead up to the first race, with 31mm recorded shortly after 11am.
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Stewards downgraded the track twice — from a good 4 to a soft 6 — before the opening event and soon after the Flemington surface was further downgraded to a heavy 8.
It wasn’t until the completion of race 5 that officials were able to upgrade the track - to a soft 7.
Earlier, there were fears of significant delays to the day as torrential rain battered the iconic track.
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After race 1 jockeys of all runners warned of the treacherous conditions.
“Geez it’s wet,” winning hoop Mark Zahra said after guiding Bella Rosa to victory.
“The surface water is quite substantial. We were going up the straight and I couldn’t see much ... the weather is obviously very bad.
“My goggles were full of water when I came back to scale. Boots are full of water now.
“I have (ridden in conditions like it), and they usually call them off. But I don’t think they’ll be doing that today.
“Geez it’s close to an (heavy) 8 right now,” Zahra said.
“If it keeps raining like this and they race, you’d think it’d be as bad as it gets for the Cup.”
Damien Oliver later said he couldn’t see anything during the race, while Beau Mertens declared conditions the “craziest” he had experienced.
Mertens said he “couldn’t see two metres in front of me”.
“It was crazy — the craziest conditions I’ve ridden in,” he said.
“I think I’ve got about a kilo of water in each boot. I’m all done for the day, thankfully.”
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Racing Victoria stewards remained confident the wild weather would clear and the Melbourne Cup would be run on time.
Chief steward Robert Cram said alterations had been made but that the rain and racing program would continue to be monitored throughout the day.
“We’ve been in contact with the Bureau (of Meteorology) and they’ve informed us that the rain will continue over the next hour but will clear,” he said before midday.
“And we’ll have clear space after that. Given that information and looking at the radar, we’ve determined to delay the second race and the third race, to give us room for assessment for the further program on the day.
“Our aim is to run the Cup at 3pm if possible.”
Punters are gravitating towards superior wet tracker in English stayer Magic Circle, who emerged the new race favourite ahead of the drifting Yucatan.
Magic Circle was the best-backed horse since the barrier draw, according to the TAB.
He has had 10 starts on soft tracks for five wins and two placings.
After Tuesday morning’s downpour, he firmed from $8 into $6 outright pick.
Another English stayer Marmelo loves the wet and is a $16 chance.
Another superior wet tracker is Caulfield Cup winner Best Solution who has had three wins from four starts on soft tracks and he is $13.
Yucatan has had four starts on wet tracks for three placings.
But punters were wary of the star’s chances, the Lloyd Williams runner easing to $7.50.
James Cummings said the rain wouldn’t hinder Avilius’ prospects and could even enhance them.
Cummings said Avilius came from a long way back to win the Premier’s Cup at his second Australian start on a Soft 5 track.
He also pointed out that Avilius had run second to one of the best horse’s in the world, Cracksman, in France in the Group 2 Prix Niel at Chantilly a race in which another Cup runner Finche finished third.
“That’s pretty good wet track form,” Cummings said on RSN this morning.
The Bureau of Meteorology said that about 5mm fell within 10 minutes on the racecourse area just after 7am, with some lightning also occurring, with the experts predicting it to be raining when the race is run at 3pm.
The track had been rated a Good 4 overnight, with O’Keeffe putting 5mm of water onto the surface.
“If we can get away with less than 5mm, it shouldn’t have too much of an impact on the track,” O’Keeffe said on Macquarie Sports Radio of this morning’s downpour.
O’Keeffe said he works on a policy to prepare a Good 3 track for most of the day, with the job this morning simply to monitor the rain gauges and how the track is holding up.
“There’s nothing we can do on the track to dry it out,” he said.
“The No. 1 rule is to stay off it when it’s wet. If we can get away with less than 5mm before the first, it won’t have any bearing on the track.
“Hopefully we can get away reasonably unscathed.”
The last wet Melbourne Cup was in 2010 when Americain won on a Soft 6 track and he started from barrier 11.
On that occasion the field raced away from the fence with the placegetters coming down the outside of the track.
TAB’s top five in terms of take since the barrier draw:
Magic Circle $8
Yucatan $6
Best Solution $12
Marmelo $13
Youngstar $15
WHO WILL WIN THE MELBOURNE CUP?
LEO SCHLINK (Herald Sun)
1 Yucatan
2 Magic Circle
3 Muntahaa
4 The Cliffsofmoher
Roughie: Rostropovich
GLENN MCFARLANE (Herald Sun)
1. Yucatan
2 Avilius
3 Youngstar
4 Cross Counter
Roughie: Rostropovich
MICHAEL MANLEY (Herald Sun)
1 Yucatan
2 The Cliffsofmoher
3 Avilus
4 Rostropovich
Best roughie: Finche
- with Ben Broad
Originally published as Melbourne Cup weather outlook is heavy rain, so which horses can win in the wet?