Melbourne Cup tips, analysis: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy give their opinion of each runner
Racing gurus Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy are divided over their Melbourne Cup analysis, but they do have a stayer of a prominent Sydney trainer ranked very high.
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The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy look at every runner in this year’s Melbourne Cup.
Check out what they had to say about this year’s big players.
1 ANTHONY VAN DYCK
Ron Dufficy: One thing Anthony Van Dyck has got in his favour is class and quality, he’s a proven world class stayer. I thought his Caulfield Cup run was very good on the soft track. He just gave them too much start there. His dry track form is better, the barrier draw helps him to be ridden closer than he was in the Caulfield Cup but the queries are he has the topweight and he’s a query at the 3200m but no knock from me.
Ray Thomas: Anthony Van Dyck ran a massive race in the Caulfield Cup, coming from well back to challenge Verry Elleegant. As has been proven over the years, Caulfield Cup form is the best form for the Melbourne Cup. He escaped a penalty but still has to carry 58.5kg and history says that is too big a burden for an imported stayer. However, we have never had an English Derby winner contest a Melbourne Cup.
2 AVILIUS
Dufficy: Avilius was unlucky in the Caulfield Cup but does that cast doubt about the strength of that race, I’m not sure. He’s a Godolphin favourite among the stable staff and I will be kind to him. He’s been a beauty but he needs the track to be over-watered.
Thomas: Avilius looked to be struggling to find his best form but then he ran so well in the Caulfield Cup. With even luck in running he would have been top three at least. The 3200m trip under 57kg will test him and I agree, Ronnie, he needs some give in the track.
3 VOW AND DECLARE
Dufficy: Did Vow And Declare win the lottery last year after a brilliant ride going forward? His form since has been disappointing, he needs to lift but I like the addition of blinkers. The stable is going too well to say a direct no.
Thomas: We know Vow And Declare loves Flemington and will stay a strong 3200m. However, he is up 5kg on what he carried to win last year and his form this spring has been below his best. He has been set for one race and that’s today but I I don’t think he is going well enough to win again.
4 MASTER OF REALITY
Dufficy: I’m not sure what to think of Master Of Reality who was second over the line last year then relegated to fourth on protest. He is coming off a confidence-boosting win and is ready to peak on the right day, he’s performed in Australia and he appears good odds based on his very good run in this race last year.
Thomas: Master Of Reality was going to win last year until he got very wayward late. He returns to Flemington as a last start winner at Down Royal in Ireland. Tough stayer in the right stable. He deserves to be rated among the main chances.
5 SIR DRAGONET
Dufficy: I like Sir Dragonet a lot, I think he is a very dangerous horse here. Some feel he wants it wet but I’m not so sure there is enough evidence to support that theory. I loved the way he charged through the line to win the Cox Plate. He’s a definite winning chance.
Thomas: Sir Dragonet was outstanding in the Cox Plate, providing a demonstration of his impressive acceleration to charge home from the turn. This horse did run second to Anthony Van Dyck in the English Derby last year so he is all class. There are some queries about him at 3200m and on a firm track but there are a lot of good judges in his corner. Hard to beat.
6 TWILIGHT PAYMENT
Dufficy: There is nothing wrong with Twilight Payment at the odds. He is a terrific older horse who is very tough. It wasn’t his style of race in the Cup last year which is a common factor here. He was very good beating Master Of Reality by eight lengths two starts back then ran well in the Irish St Leger. He is one of the better roughies.
Thomas: Twilight Payment is going better this spring, Ronnie. Strong stayer who is effective on all track surfaces. He’s around $26 in latest betting which is good value given he will run the 3200m right out.
7 VERRY ELLEEGANT
Dufficy: Verry Elleegant is a classy Australian mare although the Kiwis are very protective of her given she was bred in New Zealand. After her Caulfield Cup win, it would be easy to think the Melbourne Cup was an afterthought but it has been the plan all the way along to get her to this race. As we have learned, Ray, never second guess Chris Waller in these big races.
Thomas: There is so much to admire about Verry Elleegant but particularly her will-to-win. She is a racehorse in every sense of the word. Every race, she gives her all and comes into the Melbourne Cup off a typically determined effort to win the Caulfield Cup. Her 55.5kg is the concern — the great Makybe Diva is the only mare to carry such a big weight and win this race.
8 MUSTAJEER
Dufficy: If he wasn’t an eight-year-old gelding who finished well back in this race last year, I would have to say his Caulfield Cup effort was a good trial for this race. But I have to oppose him, especially on a dry track.
Thomas: Mustajeer’s Caulfield Cup effort was his best run for ages but significantly it was on a slow 6 surface. The forecast of fine, warm weather and the good track is not what he needs.
9 STRATUM ALBION
Dufficy: He is an eight-year-old having his 30th start and he hasn’t won a race in over a year. Three of his last four runs have been over the hurdles without success. If he wasn’t trained by such a great trainer as Willie Mullins you would put the pen straight through this horse.
Thomas: You summed it up well, Ronnie. His trainer is a genius, particularly with stayers, but it is a mystery this horse got 55kg in the Cup. He’s $51 out of respect for the Mullins stable.
10 DASHING WILLOUGHBY
Dufficy: There was talk about him being a good prospect for this race prior to him tailing off in the Caulfield Cup. I can’t see him bouncing back off that run.
Thomas: It would be one of the greatest form turnarounds of them all if this horse won today. Maybe the once-a-year punters who live in Willoughby will back this horse.
11 FINCHE
Dufficy: I like Finche, he has ticked along really well for his main target. I’m convinced they got the tactics horribly wrong last year off the speed. If James McDonald rides him confidently from his favourable draw he has a terrific winning chance. He’s going great this spring.
Thomas: I’m with Finche — again. I thought he could win last year but he had to endure a wide run and at this level of competition, you need everything to go right as the best run will win the race virtually every time. From barrier six, I think he will get the right run and I’m staying with him. He’s racing as well as ever, his Caulfield Cup effort to finish fifth was very good after yet another tough run, he’s well-weighted and boasts the all-powerful Chris Waller-James McDonald trainer-jockey combination.
12 PRINCE OF ARRAN
Dufficy: Prince Of Arran is a marvellous stayer and has been placed in the Melbourne Cup the last two years. He made a statement in the Caulfield Cup with his fast finishing effort, he does no work from the draw and is sure to be powering home with the in-form Jamie Kah in the saddle.
Thomas: Super run in the Caulfield Cup where he was finishing as strong any anything in the race. We know what we get with Prince Of Arran, a genuine 3200m horse who likes Flemington and will run a very competitive race. He’s in my top two with Finche.
13 SURPRISE BABY
Dufficy: Surprise Baby has been trained for this race since he ran a very good fifth in the Melbourne Cup last year when nothing went right for him. It was the run of the race. He’s a very talented stayer, spot on for today and with even luck he will be very hard to hold out. He has an acceptable weight and a big-race jockey with Craig Williams. His light race preparation is his go, he won the Adelaide Cup last year with six weeks between runs. Fresh is best for him.
Thomas: I take your point, Ronnie, because I was concerned about the fact he has only had two starts up to 2000m this campaign. He was terrific in the Melbourne Cup last year and Craig Williams committed to this stayer early in the spring. There is a lot to like about him.
14 KING OF LEOGRANCE (SCRATCHED)
15 RUSSIAN CAMELOT
Dufficy: Russian Camelot is a northern hemisphere three-year-old and they have been dominant in the Melbourne Cup in recent years. He is a talented young stayer who created a huge impression winning the South Australian Derby in May. He hasn’t been beyond 2000m in four runs back so a quiet ride will help him. My concern is he might be 12 months away from being at his absolute best.
Thomas: That’s the key, Ronnie, is he mature enough for a Melbourne Cup? In his favour is his 53.5kg impost as this horse will never get into a handicap with such a lightweight again. His weight-for-age form this spring has been very good and I liked the way he kept trying right to the line in the Cox Plate. I didn’t have Russian Camelot in my top four but he is capable of winning the Cup.
16 STEEL PRINCE
Dufficy: He found form again winning the Geelong Cup last start. He was pretty good in a slowly run Melbourne Cup last year, he’s arguably going better this spring, he enjoys Flemington and is a place chance with luck in running.
Thomas: Steel Prince was a top 10 finisher last year and he can definitely achieve a similar result today. He’s racing well this spring but this is a strong Cup field.
17 THE CHOSEN ONE
Dufficy: He was very good in the Caulfield Cup, typical of the stable peaking on the right day. He did run second in the Sydney Cup earlier this year on a heavy track but this is much tougher.
Thomas: The Chosen One is a good each way bet at $31. He can stay and his Caulfield Cup run was a beauty. Drawn to get all the favours in the run and although there are classier stayers in this race, he will be competitive.
18 ASHRUN
Dufficy: Ashrun did well improving from the Geelong Cup to winning the Hotham last Saturday. He’s a very strong stayer with an astute trainer but three runs since October 21 is a big ask for a European stayer.
Thomas: Ashrun was very strong under 61kg on Derby Day and drops 8kg for the Cup. This alone puts him in the contest but I also have a concern about him on the quick back-up. It’s not what the European stayers are used to and I remember Oceanographer winning in stunning fashion but he couldn’t reproduce that effort in the Melbourne Cup.
19 WARNING
Dufficy: I liked his first two runs back but he was just fair in the Caulfield Cup. He hasn’t won a race in his last two preparations which is not a good statistic. He might find a few of these too good for him.
Thomas: Warning won the Victoria Derby and he does race well at Flemington. He’s only got 53kg which is to his advantage but he has to improve off his Caulfield Cup run.
20 ETAH JAMES
Dufficy: Etah James needs some rain. She did surprise winning the Sydney Cup earlier this year on the heavy track but this stable has shocked before in staying races.
Thomas: The only mare to win the Sydney Cup-Melbourne Cup double is Makybe Diva and with all due respects to Etah James, she is not Makybe Diva. Needs a rainstorm like Van Der Hum in 1976 to be a factor.
21 TIGER MOTH
Dufficy: Tiger Moth is a highly regarded import and could well be the real thing. He’s another northern hemisphere three-year-old and they have been so good in this race the last few years. His first try against the older horses last start he was very dominant and he appears an adaptable type. Barrier 23 is not ideal but I will leave that to Kerrin McEvoy who rides stayers so well.
Thomas: His lack of race experience concerns me but there is so much stable confidence in this young stayer. He thrashed his rivals at Leopardstown although it was only a Group 3, but he did run a very good second in the Irish Derby. Trained by a genius in Aidan O’Brien and there is no better ride of stayers than McEvoy, a three-time winner of this race already. I’m not leaving Tiger Moth out of my numbers.
22 OCEANEX
Dufficy: She won the Andrew Ramsden Stakes in May so she can stay. She has been under an injury cloud with a heel issue and it would be a huge upset if she won a Melbourne Cup.
Thomas: Oceanex ran an improved race in the Moonee Valley Cup and she holds a decision over King Of Leogrance which shows she has staying ability. But she is $71 for a reason.
23 MIAMI BOUND
Dufficy: Typical of trainer Danny O’Brien he has this mare peaking at the right time. She was very good when she got to the outside in the Moonee Valley Cup and found her VRC Oaks form from last spring. She is in the right stable but there is so much depth in this race.
Thomas: Miami Bound was back to her best in the Moonee Valley Cup. She’s a good mare but the only VRC Oaks winner to train on and win the Melbourne Cup as a four-year-old was Light Fingers and she was a champion. Miami Bound could sneak into the minor placings but a win would surprise.
24 PERSAN
Dufficy: Persan has had a busy schedule. He has been up since April, had 10 runs for six wins and four placings. Much bigger task here but he has earned his place in the field.
Thomas: I have Persan as the best roughie in the race. He may lack the class of many of his rivals but he’s very consistent and stays well. I’ll be having something on him each way at $31.
RAY THOMAS
1. Finche
2. Prince Of Arran
3. Tiger Moth
4. Verry Elleegant
RON DUFFICY
1. Surprise Baby
2. Tiger Moth
3. Sir Dragonet
4. Finche
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