Melbourne Cup: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy assess every runner
Ron Dufficy and Ray Thomas rate the chances of every runner in the Melbourne Cup but can’t go past freakish stayer Incentivise.
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The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate the chances of every runner in the $7.75m Lexus Melbourne Cup (3200m) at Flemington on Tuesday.
1. TWILIGHT PAYMENT
Ron Dufficy: We all know it was an amazing effort by this horse to win last year with 55.5kg. He is a nine-year-old now but I would suggest his form is just as good this spring leading into the big one, he has a nice draw to ride the speed again in what looks a fast race. He’s tough and durable.
Ray Thomas: Twilight Payment produced a strong staying performance to lead most of the way to win the Cup last year but he has to shoulder 58kg on Tuesday which is a concern. No nine-year-old has ever won the race, either.
2. INCENTIVISE
Dufficy: What an amazing story it will be if he makes it 10 straight wins. He blew everyone away with one of the most arrogant wins in a Caulfield Cup since Might And Power. He is the go-to horse for most punters. He’s drawn wide but will take his time coming across to settle on the speed. If he can run the 3200m he will go close to winning. He’s the hot favourite and hard to get around.
Thomas: Incentivise only won his first race in April – but here is nine months later the shortest Melbourne Cup favourite since the legendary Phar Lap. It’s been a freakish rise by Incentivise but just watch a replay of his extraordinary Caulfield Cup win to remind yourself of incredible staying ability. He is the one to beat.
3. SPANISH MISSION
Dufficy: This is the one they all should be worried about as he brings some strong European form in a year which lacks a bit of depth. He has won up to 3600m so he is suited by what looks likely to be a real staying test. Craig Williams is renowned for chasing the right ride.
Thomas: Spanish Mission was under an injury cloud a few days ago but seems fit and ready for the race. His European form is outstanding including his win in the Yorkshire Cup and his effort to stretch champion Stradivarius in the Lonsdale Cup. He’s right in this race.
4. VERRY ELLEEGANT
Dufficy: She is a world class mare shooting for 10 Group 1 wins and I don’t think she is too badly weighted. I thought she looked a bit dour in the Cox Plate which indicated to me she has been set for this race – this is not an afterthought. She was terrific in a very fast Cup last year and having James McDonald back on is a huge bonus.
Thomas: Verry Elleegant is a champion mare in my estimation, although others disagree. If she wins the Melbourne Cup then there is no debate – and she can win this race. I also felt her Cox Plate effort was a great lead-in to the Cup and she will stay a strong 3200m. Her 57kg impost is the steadier but this isn’t the strongest Cup field.
5. EXPLOSIVE JACK
Dufficy: Explosive Jack had a terrific three-year-old season winning three Derbies and when he ran so well in the Turnbull Stakes, I was really warming to his chances for the Cup. I thought he would have done more in the Caulfield Cup but he will be a different horse if he can get to the outside to make his finishing run. I think he is the best longshot in the race.
Thomas: He is a strong stayer in the right stable. He hasn’t set the world on fire this spring but his preparation has been about ensuring he peaks for this race. He’s not in my top four but I wouldn’t be surprised if he was in the finish.
6. THE CHOSEN ONE
Dufficy: He is well drawn to settle with cover and he did run very well in this race last year. His lead-up form prior to the Caulfield Cup was looking good and you need to be forgiving of his last start run if you want to back him.
Thomas: The Chosen One was near the top of my early Melbourne Cup selections before his Caulfield Cup flop. He’s a much better horse than run suggests and he was really good in this race last year when finishing fourth and is one of the better each way chances.
7. DELPHI
Dufficy: Delphi was far too keen coming across from a wide barrier in the Caulfield Cup and it seemed Incentivise busted his heart. His form before that was ticking along nicely, he will get into the box seat here and the drier track will suit him.
Thomas: Delphi was impressive in the Herbert Power and perhaps the seven-day back-up into the Caulfield Cup didn’t suit him. There are some good judges in his corner and he’s going to get the right run tucked in behind the speed.
8. OCEAN BILLY
Dufficy: Ocean Billy was a big winner of the Auckland Cup at his only run over this distance. He’s with the Chris Waller stable but I feel he needs a dramatic lift on his Caulfield Cup effort.
Thomas: Ocean Billy ran an even race in the Caulfield Cup finishing midfield. He’s a chance to finish top 10 but he lacks the class to win. He might be more of a factor in 12 months’ time.
9. SELINO
Dufficy: Selino is a real two-miler as he showed in the Sydney Cup and we know Chris Waller will have him peaking on the right day. I’m convinced he will finish closer than midfield here considering his staying ability.
Thomas: Selino produced a strong staying effort to win the Sydney Cup and his preparation this spring has been about one race. I doubt he can win a Melbourne Cup but he can run a competitive race.
10. JOHNNY GET ANGRY
Dufficy: Johnny Get Angry was a fairy tale winner of the Victoria Derby last year but he hasn’t done enough this spring. He is very hard to have.
Thomas: It would be some story if AFL coaching great Dennis Pagan could train a Melbourne Cup winner. But his stayer has been struggling this spring and it’s hard to see him figuring in the finish.
11. KNIGHTS ORDER
Dufficy: Knights Order adds speed to the race – but so do a few others. He did win the Brisbane Cup but I wanted to see more from him in the Hotham Stakes last Saturday. It’s hard to make a case for him.
Thomas: Knights Order won the Brisbane Cup when he was left alone in front. There is so much more up-front pressure in this race and he was disappointing in the Hotham.
12. PERSAN
Dufficy: The timing looks right for Persan to produce a similar performance to last year when he ran a very good fifth in the Cup. I always respect those stayers from the Ciaron Maher and David Eustace stable as they come into their own when they get to 2400m and beyond.
Thomas: Persan is my best longshot. He’s a strong, genuine stayer and very consistent. He ran fifth in the Melbourne Cup last year and is going really well this spring including his third in the Caulfield Cup last start. He is one of the main chances.
13. CARIF
Dufficy: Carif is a tough horse who has been crying out for this distance. He is capable when right but he disappointed me in the City Tattersalls Club Cup. I wanted to see more from him last start.
Thomas: Carif can stay but is not going well enough to win a Melbourne Cup. His recent Sydney runs have only been fair and he needs to improve but at least he has a proven 3200m record.
14. MASTER OF WINE
Dufficy: It has been a while since Master Of Wine won a race but his run in The Bart Cummings was outstanding and I thought he was right on track but then he finished well back in the Caulfield Cup. Maybe getting back to Flemington will help his chances.
Thomas: Master Of Wine did hit the line well in The Bart Cummings to finish third to Grand Promenade and Tralee Rose before finishing well back in the Caulfield Cup. He’s a lightweight each way chance at big odds.
15. PONDUS
Dufficy: He has had a light preparation but this seems to have been the plan by connections. He can run a race from barrier one as this stable aims their horses at this race for a year.
Thomas: Pondus, the former Irish stayer, has run two even races since joining the Robert Hickmott stable. Likely to race on the speed and give himself every chance but doubt he is good enough.
16. GRAND PROMENADE
Dufficy: Grand Promenade has plenty of miles in his legs with his runs spaced this preparation. He needs luck from the outside barrier to slot in but Kerrin McEvoy is such a great rider in these two-mile races he will give this horse every chance.
Thomas: I have Grand Promenade in my top three. He has been up a long time but his form only gets better as he proved winning The Bart Cummings impressively. He races well at Flemington, he’s a strong stayer and is a very good lightweight chance.
17. MIAMI BOUND
Dufficy: This mare is in great hands with the Danny O’Brien stable and she can stay but I would have preferred some rain around for her to run well.
Thomas: Miami Bound worked home fairly for fifth in the Moonee Valley Cup and will be peaking for this race. She was placed in the Sydney Cup earlier this year and can run a competitive race but hard to see her winning.
18. PORT GUILLAUME
Dufficy: Former French stayer but I don’t think he has done enough in his four Australian starts to recommend him in a Melbourne Cup.
Thomas: It would be a monumental upset if Port Guillaume won. His form is moderate and he’s a $126 chance for a reason.
19. SHE’S IDEEL
Dufficy: She is a bonny mare who ran great in the Sydney Cup last autumn. She has had a few excuses along the way this preparation but it would not surprise me to see her number in the frame. There is so much pressure in this race you would expect a couple of backmarkers like this mare to be running on.
Thomas: She’s Ideel did run a good fourth in the Sydney Cup and her form this spring has been solid including her seventh in the Caulfield Cup. I doubt she can win a Melbourne Cup but she is over the odds at $81.
20. FUTURE SCORE - SCRATCHED
21. TRALEE ROSE
Dufficy: I like this mare and she sets up well off her Geelong Cup win. She can stay and should settle in a good spot off a solid tempo. She has a winning chance at odds.
Thomas: Tralee Rose showed her staying ability when she responded under pressure to win the Geelong Cup. She excels at Flemington but worth noting she did finish only fourth as an odds-on favourite in the Adelaide Cup at her only previous 3200m attempt. Good lightweight chance.
22. FLOATING ARTIST
Dufficy: Another one from the Maher-Eustace team who was a certainty beaten in the Moonee Valley Cup. His previous form was good, he gets in light and deserves respect.
Thomas: Floating Artist has emerged as a genuine lightweight hope. As you pointed out Ronnie, he should have won the Moonee Valley Cup. In the right stable and he’s capable of running a very competitive race.
23. GREAT HOUSE
Dufficy: This horse has found his form at the right time winning the Hotham Handicap on Derby Day and that has been a proven formula in the past. He’s an each-way chance.
Thomas: Great House has done good things this spring winning the Newcastle Gold Cup and attacking the line strongly to take out the Hotham Handicap. There is a question mark about his ability at 3200m but he drops 7.5kg on his Hotham win.
24. SIR LUCAN
Dufficy: Sir Lucan is a bit of a mystery to me, a young import lightly-raced with the Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott stable. I don’t know a lot about him but the stable has won this race with an import, Fiorente, so it wouldn’t surprise me if he ran well.
Thomas: Sir Lucan is the younger brother of the ill-fated Sir Dragonet, winner of the Cox Plate and Tancred Stakes and a sixth placegetter in the Melbourne Cup last year. Sir Lucan is a Listed winner in Ireland but his jockey, Glen Boss, knows how to win this race.
THE FINAL WORD
Ron Dufficy:Incentivise is a winning machine. There are no slows for him at all, he has a big set of lungs on him and his winning margins at 2000m and beyond is unbelievable. I’m happy to trust he will run the 3200m right out and he’s my selection to win the Melbourne Cup. Verry Elleegant is the danger as she ran on well in the Melbourne Cup last year when the race wasn’t really on her radar. If she brings her A game, and with her Group 1 record, she is certainly the danger. Spanish Mission has the right profile and the records of with the good record of Europeans in the race he has to be in the mix. Explosive Jack is the best longshot. I’m forgiving of his last run when he was hemmed in but if he can get to the outside, he is a really strong stayer.
Ray Thomas: I’m also with Incentivise from Verry Elleegant. Incentivise’s effort in the Caulfield Cup was extraordinary and he seems to get better when he gets out in distance. It takes a rare stayer to win the Cups double, particularly having to carry 57kg in the Melbourne Cup, but Incentivise is a freakish talent. Verry Elleegant is a mare I admire and it would be her crowning glory if she wins the Cup. The record books suggest this will be a very difficult task for Verry Elleegant but she is blessed with a fierce will-to-win. Grand Promenade is a strong stayer and the best lightweight chance in the race. The Chosen One and Persan ran very well in this race last year and I expect them to be competitive again.
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