Melbourne Cup: Likes, dislikes and verdict for the full field in five minute guide

NO time to do the Melbourne Cup form? Check out our five minute guide with likes/dislikes and verdict on the full field plus a trifecta tip!

NO time to do the Melbourne Cup form? Check out our five minute guide with likes/dislikes and verdict on the full field plus a trifecta tip!

1. HARTNELL (12) 57.5kg

Beaten favourite when he ran third to Almandin in last year’s Cup, the James Cummings trained gelding is back for another attempt.

Likes: Consistent performer at this level with 7 wins and 10 places from 27 starts at Group level.

Dislikes: Up 1.5 kilograms on last year’s Cup and form is worse in 2017. Despite running a place last year this really isn’t his distance. Failed badly at last run when ninth in Caulfield Stakes.

Verdict: Hoping for an Empire Rose like progression (the mare who ran fifth in 1986, second in 1987 and won in 1988) but I think he’s weighted out of it this year.

2. ALMANDIN (14) 56.5kg

2016 Melbourne Cup winner who will lug 4.5kg more in this year’s race.

Likes: As the reigning Cup champion distance is obviously within his reach. Spelled after his Cup win, he returned in fine fettle carrying 61kg to victory in the 2500m JRA Trophy (Listed) and then worked home well without threatening placegetters in the G3 Bart Cummings.

Dislikes: Two words — Frankie Dettori. The UK based jockey is a Melbourne Cup curse single-handedly destroying the 2015 race and then slaughtering Wicklow Brave last year. The 4.5kg weight increase from last year makes a big difference to his chances.

Verdict: Great stayer but weight and rider worries. Leave in multiples but look elsewhere for a winner if betting on the nose.

3. HUMIDOR (13) 56kg

Third in the Turnbull, fifth in the Caulfield Cup and second in the Cox Plate — this Darren Weir trained stayer certainly has plenty of miles in his legs already this spring.

Likes: Class no problem as has 10 G1 starts for two wins and four placings, also loves the big Flemington track with two wins and a place from four starts.

Dislikes: Distance — has never won beyond 2000m and was laying in badly over the final furlongs of both the Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate.

Verdict: Odds are far too short for a horse with such a distance query for mine. Not in my top 10.

4. TIBERIAN (23) 55.5kg

French stayer who booked his Melbourne Cup ticket with victory in the G2 Lucien Barriere (2500m) on 27 August.

Likes: Recent form is winning form with 4 wins from 5 starts. Has a win and a place from 3 starts over 3000m. Versatile in running, can take a sit near the leader or work through field.

Dislikes: Been found out at Group 1 level with 3 starts for no win/places. Best form in the 2400-2500 range. Jockey Olivier Peslier is a champion with a great record on the horse but this will be his first visit to Australia, Hugh Bowman was given first refusal on the horse and he opted to ride Marmelo instead.

Verdict: I like his versatility but wary of poor G1 form. One for multiples

CUP TIPS: Experts reveal their top three and roughie

The Sneaky Chance podcast crew of Gilbert Gardiner, Glen McFarlane and Danny Russell profile every Melbourne Cup runner and discuss their prospects in Tuesday’s famous race

5. MARMELO (16) 55kg

Prix de Kergolay (G2 3000m) winner who ran a cracking Melbourne Cup trial in the Caulfield Cup.

Likes: Has had four runs over 3000m for two wins and two places. The Kergolay has proven an excellent form guide in the past and he was impressive there lugging 59kg and winning by 1.25 lengths. Motored home in the Caulfield Cup in a run that screamed pick me for the Melbourne Cup. Hugh Bowman had his pick of a few runners for the Cup and chose this guy.

Dislikes: Did not draw an ideal barrier but far from worst.

Verdict: Top chance

6. RED CARDINAL (24) 55kg

Globetrotter who was heading towards early favouritism after two wins over 3200 earlier this year before finishing fifth in the G2 Prix Kergolay (3000m) won by Marmelo prior to heading to Australia.

Likes: Two from two over 3200 with the wins in the G2 Oleander-Rennen in Germany and G3 Belmont Gold Cup in the USA in June. Raced by Australian Bloodstock and trained by top German trainer Andreas Wohler — the same combination that took Protectionist to victory in the 2014 Melbourne Cup.

Dislikes: Drawn the proverbial carpark in barrier 24 which is tough but. Connections would have been hoping for more at the Kergolay but Wohler put the disappointing run down to track conditions that did not suit along with an unfavourable tempo.

Verdict: Am a big fan of this horse and rate it a genuine chance. Gets a 1kg pull in the weights on Marmelo from the Kergolay which should help offset the wide barrier somewhat.

7. JOHANNES VERMEER (3) 54.5kg

Another Williams horse, another foreign raider and another you should include in multiples.

Likes: Finished like a jet at his first run in Australia when beaten a nose in the G1 Caulfield Stakes (2000m) and ran the second most impressive final 400m of the race (behind Marmelo) to finish third in the G1 Caulfield Cup (2400m) at his next. Drawn a beauty of a barrier and won’t have to do too much work early.

Dislikes: Has never won past 2000m — but the strong finishes mentioned above give every indication of a horse wanting more distance and needing just a bit of luck in running and has two places from two runs at 2400.

Verdict: Definitely keep him safe and include in multiples.

8. BONDI BEACH (1) 54kg

Would be one of the Williams teams all-time heists if this fella wins the Cup!

Likes: Not a whole lot if I were to be brutally honest. Showed some good form in 2016 and then finished 13th in the 2016 Melbourne Cup with not much luck in running.

Dislikes: Since the 2016 Cup run was spelled for 9 months and has had just the two starts in which he finished 9th of 10 and 11th of 13.

Verdict: Nope

9. MAX DYNAMITE (2) 54kg

Ran second in the 2015 Melbourne Cup largely thanks to a mongrel of a ride by jockey Frankie Dettori knocking out half the field.

Likes: Can stay all day and has not raced in anything shorter than 3200 for over four years. Won his last race, a Class 4 over 3400m. Reports from quarantine indicate he’s in fine form.

Dislikes: Has only raced four times since his 2015 MC effort and twice in 2017 — once over the hurdles and then his latest run both at lowly Class 4 level.

Verdict: With just four runs in two years it would be a travesty to punters if he gets up here. Pass.

10. VENTURA STORM (6) 54kg

Irish stayer aimed for a Cups campaign after finishing second in the G1 Irish St Leger (3000m) in September 2016.

Likes: Excellent strike rate once he gets past 2400 metres with 4 starts for 2 wins and a place. Finished second to Winx in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) on 7 October in best run on Australian soil. Very nice barrier.

Dislikes: Flopped in the Caulfield Cup at latest start when was in good position to pounce on the field at the home turn but stable reported he pulled up lame so some excuse can be made.

Verdict: On Turnbull form he’s some chance at decent odds and the barrier helps. Chuck in for a place in your trifecta.

11. WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (20) 54kg

Grand old stager was scratched from the race on Sunday due to an elevated temperature.

12. WICKLOW BRAVE (8) 54kg

Slaughtered by Frankie Dettori in last year’s Melbourne Cup the UK based veteran is back for another attempt.

Likes: Has had more starts at the distance — 26 with 7 wins and 5 places — than many of the field have had starts full stop. Been carrying big weights in the UK so will enjoy the 54kg here.

Dislikes: Has not won on the flat for over a year and history is against him as he would need to set an age record to win here.

Verdict: Another one I’m happy to put a line through.

13. BIG DUKE (5) 53.5kg

Another from the Australian Bloodstock/Darren Weir stable, Big Duke ran third in the G1 Sydney Cup (3200m) in April 2017.

Likes: Consistent with 7 wins and 7 placings from 19 runs and handles good to heavy ground. In eight runs at 2400m and beyond he has 4 wins and 3 placings.

Dislikes: Went out as hot favourite in the G2 Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500) at his last start and while some excuses can be made, finishing fourth of seven was not ideal.

Verdict: Durable, versatile and drawn well. Place chance.

14. US ARMY RANGER (22) 53.5kg

Stop me if you’ve heard this before … another Williams horse brought over from the UK for the race.

Likes: Marked himself as something special with a barnstorming run to finish second in the G1 Epsom Downs Derby (2400m) in 2016.

Dislikes: Showed very little in two runs before coming to Australia. Assigned weight on best form and does not appear to be in that at the moment.

Verdict: Will pass on this one.

15. BOOM TIME (9) 53.5kg

Won the Caulfield Cup as a 50/1 outsider pleasing nobody bar connections and bookies.

Likes: Battled home well to win the Caulfield Cup leaving trainer David Hayes bullish about his ability to handle the extra 800m on Tuesday. Has a good record at Flemington with two wins from three starts. Nice barrier.

Dislikes: Failed as only attempt over 3200m finishing 31 lengths behind the winner in the G1 Sydney Cup in April this year.

Verdict: Some excuses can be made for Sydney Cup flop as was run on a heavy track. I’m loathe to right off the chances of a Caulfield Cup winner and gets in with relatively light weight. Rough chance.

16. GALLANTE (18) 53kg

Won the G1 Sydney Cup (3200m) in 2016 and the finished 20th of 24 in the 2016 Melbourne Cup.

Likes: The Sydney Cup win tells you he can handle the two miles.

Dislikes: Just the two runs since his 2016 Melbourne Cup flop and neither were impressive. Tough barrier.

Verdict: Nope

17. LIBRAN (7) 53kg

Runner-up in the 2016 G1 Sydney Cup (3200m) comes into the race a last start runner-up to Who Shot Thebarman in the G2 MV Cup.

Likes: The MV Cup run was a sound staying effort with him giving the entire field a start at the turn and running down all bar the winner. Will carry just 53kg in the race which is a 3kg pull on Who Shot Thebarman from last start and has a nice barrier.

Dislikes: This class (five starts for just the one place) looks a step too high with the horse better suited at G2 and G3 level.

Verdict: Tough and far from worst. Rough place hope.

18. NAKEETA (19) 53kg

This year’s Ebor (2800m) winner is yet another import who can stay all day.

Likes: The Ebor has proven a valuable form guide to the Melbourne Cup including last year’s winner Heartbreak City which powered home to run second in the 2016 MC. Has won three times at 2800 and been placed at 3200, 3300 and 3800 metres.

Dislikes: Can put big spaces between wins. Class query as generally runs well below Group level in the UK.

Verdict: A UK horse is going to break through and win the Cup one day — I just don’t think it will be this fella.

19. SINGLE GAZE (11) 53kg

Finished second in the Caulfield Cup at 30/1 and will turn out for the Melbourne Cup at similar odds.

Likes: Did you read the line above? Second in the Caulfield Cup, in the past that would be enough to earn a horse single figure odds in the Melbourne Cup and you’re getting triple that at the time of writing.

Dislikes: Distance a real query as she’s never been tested beyond 2400 and only ever tackled that distance twice (once she fell and the other was the aforementioned Caulfield effort).

Verdict: Am going to risk her reluctantly as you can’t put them all in.

20. WALL OF FIRE (15) 53kg

Beaten by Red Cardinal by over 6 lengths in the G3 Belmont Gold Cup (3200m) held in the USA in June 2017, Wall Of Fire bounced back with a cracking effort to finish second in the Geoffrey Freer Stakes (G3 2670m).

Likes: The Geoffrey Freer run was very impressive, he loomed on the outside of eventual winner Defoe, was forced to stop, change track and came again. That’s the kind of effort you like to see from a stayer. Far from disgraced in opening run in Australia when he got miles back in the G2 Herbert Power (2400m) and worked home strongly to finish second.

Dislikes: Has never run at Group 1 level and is 0 from 2 over 3200m.

Verdict: Lightweight chance.

21. THOMAS HOBSON (21) 52kg

Distance will not worry the Willie Mullins trained Thomas Hobson and he’ll relish the featherweight.

Likes: The further the better for this old stager. Last run before coming to Australia he finished second in the G2 Doncaster Cup (3600m).

Dislikes: Lacks the turn of foot traditionally shown by Australian stayers but if the race become a true grind then he’s got the legs to make the most of it.

Verdict: I think something a bit more brilliant will beat him, but would not be shocked to see him run a place.

22. REKINDLING (4) 51.5kg

One of the lesser talked about Williams horses — and for mine one you should be paying attention to.

Likes: Beat Wicklow Brave to win the G2 Curragh Cup (2816m) in July, beaten only by superstar Order Of St George in G3 St Leger Trial (2816m) at next start and then closed really well from last 600m out from finish in G1 St Leger Stakes (2921m). Nothing on his back with just 51.5kg.

Dislikes: Is a lightly raced colt and yet to run a place from three attempts at G1 level.

Verdict: Beautifully bred, weighted well, showed great potential in preparation before coming down for the Cup and well drawn. Like.

23. AMELIE’S STAR (10) 51kg

Another from the Darren Weir stable with a tale of two runs, flopped in the Caulfield Cup but the run before she thumped the field in the G3 Bart Cummings (2500m).

Likes: The Bart Cummings win was a cracker as she beat Cup favourite Almandin by 3.4 lengths and meets him at the same weight scale here.

Dislikes: Class, with just one win from four G1/G2 starts — and that win was in a weak G2 at Morphetville. Failed to finish off the Caulfield Cup

Verdict: On the Caulfield Cup run you would put a line through her, on the Bart Cummings you would put her in top half of the field. With a nice barrier I’m backing her to run well.

24. CISMONTANE (17) 50kg

Gai Waterhouse trained runner who showed real steel to win the Lexus Stakes and slip into the Melbourne Cup.

Likes: The Lexus win showed guts and ability to stay as he fought back after being headed by Vengeur Masque. Impressed in run before The Lexus when he ran third to Libran and Who Shot Thebarman. Carried the same weight as Who Shot Thebarman in that race and gets a 4kg pull here.

Dislikes: This will be his first run at Group 1 level and prior to Tuesday he has only run in two other group races — though placed in both.

Verdict: Would be the equine equivalent of running the City to Surf in January and then the Olympics in May if he wins this. Fairytales do happen and based solely on weight and Waterhouse factor it might happen here ... but I doubt it.

BETTING TIP

The trifecta pool is huge in the Melbourne Cup and that’s where I’ll be stashing my cash with a trifecta ticket that will look something like this:

Win column: Marmelo (5), Red Cardinal (6), Rekindling (22), Johannes Vermeer (7)

Second place column, the four above, plus: (2) Almandin, (4) Tiberian, (13) Big Duke, (20) Wall Of Fire

Third place column, the eight above, plus: (10) Ventura Storm, (15) Boom Time, (21) Thomas Hobson, (23) Amelie’s Star

That’s 280 combinations so a $100 outlay will get you just shy of 36% of the dividend — and that could be anything.

Good luck and happy punting.