Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s expert tips to win big at the 2018 Melbourne Cup
RACING editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy run their eyes over each runner in the field for this year’s Melbourne Cup and pick their winner.
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RACING editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy run their eyes over each runner in the field for this year’s Melbourne Cup and pick their winner.
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1 BEST SOLUTION (IRE)
Trainer: Saeed bin Suroor
Jockey: Pat Cosgrave
Dufficy: He is almost the forgotten horse but I think they will warm to him late in betting. He has won his last four starts, including three at Group 1 level. His Caulfield Cup effort was good as he had to make two runs in the race, he’s adaptable and very classy. He’s a good chance.
Thomas: Best Solution was very brave in the Caulfield Cup, his third Group 1 win in succession, and I still can’t believe he avoided a penalty for the Melbourne Cup. However, he still has to carry 57.5kg and that is a big leveller. No international has won the Cup with more than 56.5kg but this horse is all class.
2 THE CLIFFSOFMOHER (IRE)
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Jockey: Ryan Moore
Dufficy: He looks a grinding stayer but the only negative I have with him is that he didn’t seem to want to go straight in the Caulfield Cup. He seemed to be very hard to steer for his jockey. But he is tough, he will run the 3200m will suit him.
Thomas: If he runs the trip then he has the class to be competitive. His Caulfield Cup effort was solid but like you, Ronnie, it worried me he kept ducking in under pressure. He’s trained by a master in Aidan O’Brien, Ryan Moore rides, so he has plenty in his favour. I’m not ruling him out.
3 MAGIC CIRCLE (IRE)
Trainer: Ian Williams
Jockey: Corey Brown
Dufficy: I really like this horse, I know he is a seven-year-old and he has a bit of weight for a horse that has had a bit of racing but the facts are since he has been with Ian Williams his two wins have been by six lengths. There is a real “wow” factor about this horse, he can stay, and he can handle a soft track if we get to that stage. A very much in-form horse who is a strong stayer. He will be awfully hard to hold out.
Thomas: Magic Circle hasn’t raced for 166 days – the record for a Cup winner is Rekindling at 51 days last year.
Dufficy: That’s a good statistic, Ray, but I can come back at you and say he had seven months between runs when he won at Chester over 3750m.
Thomas: Fair enough. I also like this horse. I don’t have him in my top four – he’s top five! Magic Circle could not have been more impressive in his two English wins earlier this year and he has an outstanding distance jockey in Corey Brown, who is a two-time Cup winner. Magic Circle has looked super at Werribee and is a definite winning chance.
4 CHESTNUT COAT (JPN)
Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi
Jockey: Yuga Kawada
Dufficy: I thought he was a good chance in the Caulfield Cup but he let me down. His run in the Tenno Sho earlier this year was very good but I think with the showers around, and on the back of his last-start effort I have to oppose him.
Thomas: Chestnut Coat, I like the name but I didn’t like his Caulfield Cup effort. Maybe the bigger track at Flemington and getting out to 3200m will suit him better but I think he will struggle to finish in the front half of the field.
5 MUNTAHAA (IRE)
Trainer: John Gosden
Jockey: Jim Crawley
Dufficy: He is a horse that needs room to move. He was arrogant in the Ebor ridden wide without cover. I don’t know if there is much form out of the Ebor this year but the time was there and the vision I have seen of him out of Werribee suggests he is in very good order.
Thomas: Muntahaa’s Ebor win was incredible. Wide, no cover, dominant – it was outstanding. I like what I have seen from him at Werribee trackwork and he is trained by one of the greats in John Gosden of Enable fame. I think he is one of the best chances.
6 SOUND CHECK (GER)
Trainer: Michael Moroney
Jockey: Jordan Childs
Dufficy: Sound Check is my best longshot by far. I have been sucked in watching the replay of that race in Germany when he ran Best Solution to a close finish. I want to be forgiving of his Caulfield Cup run as it was his first this way, all his previous form was clockwise, and he just seemed to get a bit lost. The race was run in two halves and even though he was well beaten his sectionals don’t read too badly. I can see him running very well.
Thomas: You make a really good case for Sound Check. I must admit I put a line through him after Caulfield but if he finds the form that saw him stretch Best Solution in Germany, then he will be competitive.
7 WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (NZ)
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Ben Melham
Dufficy: He is a grand, old horse. He is a “pattern” horse and Chris Waller likes to test him in the Moonee Valley Cup and if he runs well there then they press on to the Melbourne Cup. This is his fourth Cup and he invariably finishes top 10 and I can see him doing something similar again.
Thomas: What a warrior “Thebarman” is, he just keeps grinding away. His Moonee Valley Cup run was very good and he is a 3200m specialist. 10-year-olds don’t win Melbourne Cups but he will beat more home than beats him.
8 ACE HIGH
Trainer: David Payne
Jockey: Tye Angland
Dufficy: I know it went horribly wrong for him in the Caulfield Cup but he did that first-up in the Winx Stakes this spring but he bounced back with a great effort in the Chelmsford Stakes. Maybe he can bounce back again on Tuesday. He is certainly strong enough and after he won the Hill Stakes he looked Australia’s biggest chance in the race. Ace High has become the forgotten horse now but if they are happy to persevere with him, that suggests to me that he can improve. He has the form at the track, winning the Victoria Derby last spring.
Thomas: Ace High can win this race. His Derby win last year was outstanding and I think the key is getting back to Flemington. He didn’t like Caulfield, he’s a big track horse. His regular rider, Tye Angland, is back on and he knows Ace High so well. I think he is ridiculous odds at $67 as he was Cup favourite a few weeks ago. I’ll be having something each-way on him and I can see him running a very good race.
9 MARMELO (GB)
Trainer: Hughie Morrison
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Dufficy: It looks like they have thought this race preparation out well and the Melbourne Cup has been the target since last year. He ran so well in the Caulfield Cup last year and everyone rallied around him and made him favourite for the Melbourne Cup but he didn’t run up to expectations that day. This year, they are going straight into the Cup. He has only had four runs this year for two wins and two seconds and I feel he is going to arrive in the Caulfield Cup form from last year and that could well be good enough to win.
Thomas: Marmelo does look very hard to beat. His European runs this year have been outstanding and your point is well made about how they have learned from last year’s failed Cup campaign. Hugh Bowman has stuck with Marmelo which is a very positive pointer to his chances. Marmelo can win this race.
10 AVILIUS (GB)
Trainer: James Cummings
Jockey: Glyn Schofield
Dufficy: Avilius won a very fast lead-up in the Bart Cummings and then was given a nice lead-up into the Cup with his Cox Plate fourth. I thought his Cox Plate effort was solid but with his connections there is a lot of hype around him and he will start shorter than what he should be in the race – but that is not saying he doesn’t have a chance.
Thomas: I have a little doubt about Avilius at 3200m as he was laying in under pressure at the end of 2500m in the Bart Cummings. However, trainer James Cummings has allayed my fears and is adamant the horse will run the trip right out. He just might be the best of the locally-trained stayers in the race.
11 YUCATAN (IRE)
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Jockey: James McDonald
Dufficy: I think seeing is believing and if you isolate it, this was one of the best Melbourne Cup trials you will ever see. Come Wednesday morning we might be saying we disregarded the bleeding obvious there and he should have run odds-on after that lead-up win. I think people want to see him put two runs together but he has such a good turn of speed. The only little concern I have is if we get a soft track, can he reproduce that brilliant acceleration in testing conditions?
Thomas: I remember watching the Herbert Power and on the home turn I couldn’t believe what I was watching. Yucatan was wide throughout, had to make a long, sustained run mid-race, kept surging from the 800m, raced clear on the turn and could have won by a massive margin before being eased down to a walk to the line. It was one of the best Cup trials I have ever seen. I’ve got to stay with Yucatan – I just hope the bookies keep winding his odds out!
12 AUVRAY (FR)
Trainer: Richard Freedman
Jockey: Tommy Berry
Dufficy: He has been a bit hot and cold this preparation as I don’t think he has handled the wet tracks so they don’t want much rain for him. He’s an older horse but he did run a good race in the Sydney Cup earlier this year and also in The Metropolitan. I feel he is a realistic chance for a top 10 finish.
Thomas: Auvray is a tough stayer but is he good enough to win a Melbourne Cup – I don’t think so. I put this to his trainer, Richard Freedman, and he admitted a top 10 finish was a realistic hope.
13 FINCHE (GB)
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Zac Purton
Dufficy: Finche is an interesting horse. He led at Deauville when he won and was strong through the line. I thought his run at Geelong was good as it was a track where it was hard to make up ground and he was closing late for third. I’m sure Chris Waller kept something in the tank with this young horse on the way up. I’m nervous about leaving him out of my numbers.
Thomas: He’s a giant horse and he also caught my eye at Geelong. He races in the Frankel colours and is a son of the all-time great English champion. Finche has been sneaking under the radar this spring but I also think he is a very good each-way chance.
14 RED CARDINAL (IRE)
Trainer: Darrem Weir
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Dufficy: There was a big wrap on Red Cardinal last year but this spring he has been struggling for form. His St Leger run in Sydney was sound and I thought he might be ready to improve but he didn’t back that up last start and I have to be against him here.
Thomas: I backed Red Cardinal last year, I thought he could win the Cup but he was disappointing. He does seem to be struggling for form this spring but he is a genuine stayer and at $51, he’s at backable odds. I can’t tip this horse with any confidence but he’s worth having something on him each way.
15 VENGEUR MASQUE (IRE)
Trainer: Michael Moroney
Jockey: Patrick Moloney
Dufficy: It was a good win in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes last year and he has been a work in progress. I understand why Mike Moroney has been talking him up as a good chance and looking at his price I could make a case he should be shorter. From his good barrier he could sneak into the frame at massive odds because of the run he is going to get.
Thomas: This horse was unlucky to miss out on a Melbourne Cup start the previous two years. His trainer believes he is a better horse this spring and his whole preparation has been around peaking for this race. I just doubt he has the class to win.
16 VENTURA STORM (IRE)
Trainer: D&B Hayes and T Debernig
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Dufficy: It took him a long time to win again but he has been gelded and had a throat operation since last spring and he looks a better horse. He reacted to a positive ride at Moonee Valley and I expect he will be ridden in a similar way here. Who knows, now that he has broken through it could be the confidence-builder he has needed. Each-way hope.
Thomas: I know he got all the favours last start but it was a strong, tough win. At least he is taking winning form into the Melbourne Cup and the stable expects him to be competitive. He’s a place chance.
17 A PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB)
Trainer: Charlie Fellowes
Jockey: Michael Walker
Dufficy: I could sense they didn’t want to run him in the Lexus but they needed to run to get into the Cup field. His Herbert Power third was good and that is the right form now. I’m just worried about the back-up but I must admit I liked what I saw from him on Derby Day.
Thomas: The back-up worries me. I remember a couple of years ago Oceanographer scored a spectacular win in the Lexus but he couldn’t reproduce that effort on Cup Day. The European stayers aren’t used to the quick back-up. On the positive side, his two Australian runs have been very good.
18 NAKEETA (GB)
Trainer: Iain Jardine
Jockey: Regan Bayliss
Dufficy: He ran a ripping race in the Melbourne Cup last year finishing fifth but I just don’t think he has found that form this year. It’s a long way back from his Moonee Valley run last start and it would be a shock if he was in the finish.
Thomas: I can’t add much more, Ronnie. All I can say is that perhaps he will appreciate Flemington – but he will need to because he was never sighted at Moonee Valley.
19 SIR CHARLES ROAD
Trainer: L O’Sullivan and A Scott
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Dufficy: It’s hard to have him. He’s a bit of a toiler and he did win a nice race back in September but I can’t have him on recent form.
Thomas: A tough, grinding stayer who ran third in the Sydney Cup earlier this year. He ran well in the Bendigo Cup last start but he lacks the class to win a Melbourne Cup.
20 ZACADA (NZ)
Trainer: M Baker & A Forman
Jockey: Damian Lane
Dufficy: Zacada hasn’t found his form at all since his second in the Sydney Cup. His best chance is if we do get plenty of rain as he is a good wet-tracker.
Thomas: He’s drawn barrier 24, his recent form is poor and he is $101 for a reason. You are right Ronnie, he needs a track bordering on heavy to be any chance.
21 RUNAWAY
Trainer: G Waterhouse and A Bott
Jockey: Stephen Baster
Dufficy: I like his style. He can put himself up on the speed, he’s a St Leger winner so we know he can stay, he comes off a good win in the Geelong Cup. He’s a typical Gai Waterhouse bone-and-muscle, on-pace stayer and if they forget about him up front they could pay the price.
Thomas: Runaway was strong through the line at Geelong, they were never going to run him down. He races well at Flemington and gets into the Cup with only 52kg. He is going to be up on the speed making his own luck and can run a very good race.
22 YOUNGSTAR
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Craig Williams
Dufficy: I’m getting a feel for her because Chris Waller doesn’t normally do these things with four-year-old mares unless he is comfortable she was seasoned enough. I keep going back to her Turnbull Stakes second, that Winx form, that’s sensational form. Her Caulfield Cup run was good and I have always thought of her as a two-miler since the Brisbane winter carnival, and if there is any rain, no issues with her. So she is ticking a lot of boxes and I’ve snuck her into my top four selections.
Thomas: I’ve found a top-four spot for Youngstar, too. Her Caulfield Cup run was better than it looked because she was a long way back in a slowly run race but she was hitting the line hard late. I like your reasoning that the Waller stable must have confidence in this mare to run her in the Cup. She’s only got 51.5kg and is the best lightweight in the race.
23 CROSS COUNTER (GB)
Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Dufficy: He has been a big spruik horse for months and months but you can’t win a Melbourne Cup after a setback. He was sitting in his box doing nothing for days and they tell me he is walking around with a bandage on his leg. It is not an ideal preparation, although I’m not doubting his ability.
Thomas: I can’t add much more except trainer Charlie Appleby has been reassuring his jockey Kerrin McEvoy that the setback is nothing to worry about. He has only had seven starts so his inexperience is another concerning factor but his European form is impressive and there continues to be a strong push for this horse.
24 ROSTROPOVICH (IRE)
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Jockey: Wayne Lordan
Dufficy: I’m very wary of him. I thought it was just as good a run as Avilius in the Cox Plate. There are whispers around that he will peak on Tuesday. He gets in light, he is adaptable and can be ridden forward or back. I think he is in the top six hopes.
Thomas: He did run second in an Irish Derby so he doesn’t lack class and he gets into the race with a light weight. I don’t have him in my top selections but there are a lot of good judges who do rate this stayer.
THE RATINGS GURU
MELBOURNE CUP ANALYSIS
Ray Thomas
YUCATAN and Cross Counter, who both have strong links to two previous Melbourne Cup winners, are set to fight out the finish of the great race at Flemington, according to form expert Gary Crispe.
Irish stayer Yucatan has a similar ratings profile to 2014 winner Protectionist, while Cross Counter is considered superior to last year’s Cup hero Rekindling.
Crispe, from Racing and Sports, used his exclusive Timeform ratings to predict the northern hemisphere-trained stayers will fill the first five placings, with Yucatan leading home the Cup field.
“On Timeform-adjusted weight ratings, I have a strong leaning to the Aidan O’Brien trained – Team Williams owned Yucatan,’’ Crispe said. “His Australian debut win in the Herbert Power Stakes was a blistering effort.
“Yucatan sat back in the field early but rider James McDonald set the well-bred son of champion sire Galileo alight approaching the 800m and turning for home he had a two lengths that soon stretched to around six lengths with 200m to travel.
“McDonald grabbed hold of Yucatan easing him down to a winning margin of just over a length. Clearly it was one of the most dominant displays in the Herbert Power in 25 years returning to a Timeform rating of 123 – the equal highest Timeform rating recorded in the race for that period.
“This is exactly the same rating that 2014 Melbourne Cup winner Protectionist ran to at his Australian debut when fourth in the Herbert Power before going on to take the Cup at his next start.’’
Yucatan came to Australia with a similar profile but a slightly higher Timeform rating to another former O’Brien-trained stayer, Johannes Vermeer, who was narrowly beaten into second placing in last year’s Melbourne Cups.
“Yucatan is on an upward ratings profile that has now continued in the Herbert Power,’’ Crispe said.
“The Lexus Stakes last Saturday won by A Prince Of Arran from Brimham Rocks were the two horses that Yucatan defeated with ease in the Herbert Power, certainly franking the form out of that race and clearly underpinning the high Timeform rating awarded Yucatan.
“While yet to run over the Cup trip of 3200m, like Johannes Vermeer last year, being by Galileo there is no reason to suggest he won handle it. A repeat of his Herbert Power Timeform rating would see Yucatan comfortably win the Melbourne Cup.’’
Crispe said there mounting evidence that the northern hemisphere-bred three-year-olds are very well placed in the Melbourne Cup, something that first came to light when Coolmore’s Mahler was a close up third to Efficient in 2007.
Then last year Team Williams were successful with handy three-year-old Rekindling coming off a luckless effort in the British St Leger Stakes at Doncaster.
Godolphin trainer Charlie Appleby has earmarked powerful three-year-old Cross Counter for the Melbourne Cup, a young stayer with a surging rating profile.
“Because Cross Counter is a gelding, Appleby dodged the St Leger, a race that looked within his grasp after fighting out a stirring duel in the Great Voltigeur Stakes over 2385m at York with stable mate Old Persian last start,’’ Crispe said.
“Prior to the Great Voltigeur, Cross Counter had easily accounted for Epsom Derby runner up Dee Ex Bee in the Gordon Stakes over 2412m at Goodwood – that is probably as good a trial for the Cup as you can get.
“Cross Counter has raced just seven times for four wins and is still very much unexposed but he currently sits with a Timeform rating of 123 – two pounds above the level Rekindling ran off in last year’s Melbourne Cup victory.’’
Crispe pointed out that Cross Counter has had to overcome a slight set back leading into the Cup and the horror first-up statistic which is against all European runners attempting such a feat in Australia’s iconic staying contest.
“Since 1993, almost 100 horses have attempted to win the Cup without having a run in Australia first - only two - both Irish-trained – Vintage Crop and Rekindling have succeeded,’’ Crispe said. “Of that group, 47 British runners have all failed to win - this year might just be the time to break that hoodoo.’’
Crispe said A Prince Of Arran, Magic Circle and Finche are likely to finish just behind Yucatan and Cross Counter with Avilius managing a top six placing to be the first home among the locally-trained stayers.
GARY CRISPE’S TIMEFORM ADJUSTED WEIGHT RATINGS
YUCATAN — Winner
Cross Counter — 0.8
A Prince Of Arran — 1.0
Magic Circle — 1.1
Finche — 1.2
Avilius — 1.4
Best Solution — 1.6
The Cliffsofmoher — 1.8
Ventura Storm — 2.0
Rostropovich — 2.2
Muntahaa — 2.4
Who Shot Thebarman — 3.0
Marmelo — 3.3
Runaway — 3.6
Auvray — 3.8
Youngstar — 4.0
Ace High — 4.6
Chestnut Coat — 5.0
Sir Charles Road — 6.0
Nakeeta — 6.8
Vengeur Masque — 7.5
Red Cardinal — 8.2
Zacada — 9.0
Sound Check — 10.0