Melbourne Cup 2015: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy analyse every runner in Tuesday’s great race

PODCAST: THE Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy analyse every runner and give their tips for the Cup.

International Horse's

THE Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy analyse every runner and give their tips for the Melbourne Cup at Flemington on Tuesday.

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THE FORM: ULTIMATE CUP GUIDE

THE LEAD-UP RACES: CUP FORMLINE

THE BETTING: PUNTER BACKS BIG RED TO WIN $1m

1: SNOW SKY

Thomas: Snow Sky ran well in the Caulfield Cup, grinding away to finish a solid fifth. He will be suited by Flemington and 3200m but he does have 58kg and this has stopped better-performed international stayers with that weight previously.

Dufficy: I’m inclined to agree. His best chance is if they forget about him and he rolls along in front, that’s his best chance.

2: CRITERION

Thomas: There are shades of Super Impose, Jeune and Saintly with Criterion. He is in the best form of his life, he is going to get a lovely run from barrier four. I can see him running top four.

Dufficy: I haven’t got him in my picks but he has the class factor about him, and he does remind me of Saintly. He comes out of the Caulfield Stakes and Cox Plate where he ran well in both, he has a lovely draw, he will relax, I’m wary of him. He will run a big race.

3: FAME GAME

Thomas: Ronnie, you know I’m big on my statistics so I will run a few past you — Fame Game has 57kg and no international raider has won the Melbourne Cup with more than 56.5kg, he is starting from barrier 12, which hasn’t produced a Cup winner since Foxzami in 1949, and if he starts around the $3.20 mark and wins, he will be the shortest priced winner since Phar Lap in 1930. Look, his Caulfield Cup was excellent, but he was entitled to hit the line late. Have I read him wrong?

Dufficy: Fame Game is under the odds but I don’t think he will start that short. I feel he will start more around $5. This horse doesn’t know what price he is. Everyone has an opinion about the favourite, there are plenty against him but I am not one of them. Fame Game is a lightly raced six-year-old, good winning strike-rate, his Caulfield Cup run was excellent, he is proven at the distance, and I think he could win the Melbourne Cup by a margin.

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4: OUR IVANHOWE

Thomas: This horse is one of the better outsiders in the race. His Caulfield Cup effort was outstanding. He made a long run, flushed out the winner Mongolian Khan early, and went with him for a long way before finishing third. It was a strong staying effort and his trainer Lee Freedman knows how to win this race.

Dufficy: Our Ivanhowe was out to $35 because of the barrier draw but that is way over the odds. This horse has serious form, his Caulfield Cup run was great, and I think he can run top four.

5: BIG ORANGE

Thomas: It is hard to get a line on this horse although he has a decision over Trip To Paris in the Goodwood Cup but he was beaten a long way behind Max Dynamite in the Lonsdale Cup. I respect him but I won’t be backing him.

Dufficy: He needs a dry track, likes to race on the speed but, like you Ray, I don’t know where he fits in. I can bet against him.

6: HARTNELL

Thomas: I thought Hartnell was very good in the Cox Plate considering he was racing on the wrong part of the track. He is fourth-up and peaking for the Cup. This is the race trainer John O’Shea has had in mind for the horse since he won The BMW in March.

Dufficy: I’m interested in Hartnell. He hasn’t run up to his autumn form but is that on purpose because it is all about building to the Melbourne Cup? I keep forgetting he is a two-mile winner already and it is not as if his lead-up runs have been awful. Perhaps everyone is a little flat because we expected so much from him but I say he is an each-way chance for sure.

7: HOKKO BRAVE

Thomas: He didn’t have the best of runs in the Caulfield Cup but he was well beaten that day, he hasn’t won for two years and I can’t see him winning.

Dufficy: I always respect the Japanese horses and I like the fact he has had a run here where he was caught wide in the Caulfield Cup, but he lives in the shadow of Fame Game. If he is stupid odds I can put him in a trifecta.

8: MAX DYNAMITE

Thomas: Max Dynamite might be the smallest horse in the field but he has a lovely, fluent stride. His Londsdale Cup win was dynamic where he beat the likes of Trip To Paris. He is short enough but there is a good vibe about the Irish stayer.

Dufficy: I’m shocked how short he is in the betting as he has only won one flat race but there are good vibes about this horse’s chances.

9: RED CADEAUX

Thomas: Old Red Cadeaux, everyone’s sentimental favourite for the Cup. He is a 10-year-old and no horse that age has won the Melbourne Cup but Red Cadeaux doesn’t know how old he is. Great horse with three runner-up efforts in this race. Love to see him win, Ronnie.

Dufficy: I’m not going to sit here and bag Red Cadeaux. He has been a real warhorse but this year’s Melbourne Cup has a lot more depth than in previous years. I’d love to see him run top four but I would be shocked if he did.

10. TRIP TO PARIS

Thomas: Trip To Paris is my Melbourne Cup selection. He is an Ascot Gold Cup winner so no doubts about his staying ability, but more significantly he was very good closing late for second in the Caulfield Cup. Trip To Paris proved that day he has the necessary acceleration to be competitive and Caulfield Cup form is also the best guide to the Melbourne Cup.

Dufficy: I have to agree, Ray. I looked at him going into the Caulfield Cup and I thought he would not have the pace to be competitive but he showed he is not just your typical, grinding English stayer. He might have been flattered by a brilliant Tommy Berry ride but his Caulfield effort was very good and there is only upside with this horse. I think he is a big danger.

11: WHO SHOT THEBARMAN

Thomas: I know you have been keen on this horse all spring and I can understand why, mate. His runs have been excellent this spring, he is a Melbourne Cup and Sydney Cup placegetter, and a 3200m winner. He ticks a lot of boxes, Ronnie.

Dufficy: Yes, he’s a big chance. Since his third in the Melbourne Cup last year all eyes have been on this race. There is nothing wrong with his form, I’m convinced he is going better this year. He loves Flemington and I do think he can run top five.

12: SKY HUNTER

Thomas: So hard to get a line on this horse. He has only had two runs this year but the key to his chances is Godolphin. They know the right sort of horses to send down under and run competitively in a Melbourne Cup and this horse fits the profile.

Dufficy: I can’t back him but I keep looking at his price — should he be such big odds? He has a great winning strike-rate, he is effective on all tracks and you must respect the Godolphin stayers.

13: THE OFFER

Thomas: The Offer was the early Melbourne Cup favourite last year but didn’t make it to the race. He has been building nicely this spring, won the Bendigo Cup well, drops 5kg to 54kg, and will appreciate the give in the track.

Dufficy: Not for me. He won a weak race last week but he did win it off a hot speed carrying a big weight, I will give him that. I just feel his form prior to that was not good enough although he is a two-mile winner. He will have a lot of support because of the Gai factor but not for me.

14: GRAND MARSHAL

Thomas: Grand Marshal savaged the line in the Sydney Cup, running down Who Shot Thebarman, and his four runs this spring have been good. His Caulfield Cup effort was very good as he had little galloping room in the straight. Flemington and 3200m is ideal, he’s well weighted, and has the right trainer and jockey. He’s my best outsider. Ron, can the Pumper end his career with a third Melbourne Cup?

Dufficy: It was like a Fame Game run in the Caulfield Cup. He is flying — I didn’t think he was this good. I would prefer a wet track for him but he could take Jimmy Cassidy out with a bang.

Trainer Chris Waller with Preferment. Picture: Jay Town

15: PREFERMENT

Thomas: Preferment is the best of the locals. The Victoria Derby winner last spring, won the Turnbull Stakes two starts back, had no luck with the track bias in the Cox Plate and is advantaged by the all-conquering trainer-jockey combination of Chris Waller and Hugh Bowman. I think he is definite top three and if luck goes his way Preferment can win the Melbourne Cup.

Dufficy: I agree, he has proper form. He is a different horse this spring, he has learnt how to travel and relax in his races, he is in super form. A Zabeel four-year-old, a Derby winner, great trainer, great jockey, racing well — so much to like about him.

16: QUEST FOR MORE

Thomas: I can’t have him on his Geelong Cup run, it was horrible. But his two previous runs in England he has beaten home Trip To Paris and Max Dynamite. What do you make of this horse?

Dufficy: On his European form he is some hope but he did nothing at Geelong. I can’t see how they can press a button and turn his form around.

17: ALMOONQITH

Thomas: He had no luck in The Metropolitan where I know trainer David Hayes was very confident, then the horse came out and bolted away with the Geelong Cup, a race that has become a reliable Melbourne Cup guide in recent years. He is into $15, which is short enough, but I concede he has a better chance than most in this race.

Dufficy: I didn’t want to consider him on one good run but he was dominant at Geelong. I’m saying no but some really good judges who I respect are saying yes, for sure. I’m not ruling him out.

18: KINGFISHER

Thomas: The Ascot Gold Cup runner-up, he has Aidan O’Brien as his trainer, but I just can’t have him here. He didn’t travel well and took a while to settle in at Werribee and that is never a good sign.

Dufficy: I didn’t like what I heard when it was revealed he wasn’t doing well for the first couple of weeks after arriving in Melbourne. You need everything to go right to win a Melbourne Cup.

19: PRINCE OF PENZANCE

Thomas: Good, tough stayer, he tries hard but if he runs top 10 I think he has done his job.

Dufficy: He likes to grind away up on the pace but lacks the class to win a Melbourne Cup.

20: BONDI BEACH

Thomas: This horse has raced just five times! Lightly raced, inexperienced colt and has never raced over 3200m but the Aidan O’Brien stable like this horse, there is shades of Mahler (third, 2007) about Bondi Beach. At $23, I’m going to have something each-way on him.

Dufficy: There are good vibes about him. Amazing to think he only won his maiden at Leopardstown in May and here he is as a live Melbourne Cup chance. I’m not saying no.

21: SERTORIUS

Thomas: The only locally-bred horse in the race, I’ll give him a cheer for that, but he is $201 for a reason, Ronnie.

Dufficy: Yeah, there are not many horses in this field you can definitely say no to but Sertorius is one of them.

22: THE UNITED STATES

Thomas: Tough, grinding win in a fast-run Moonee Valley Cup, this stayer has squeezed into the Cup field at the 11th hour but I can see him finishing in the front half of the field but I don’t think he can win this race.

Dufficy: He can finish front half because he is a strong stayer. A great ride got him home at Moonee Valley and I just think he lacks the necessary acceleration to win a Melbourne Cup.

23: EXCESS KNOWLEDGE

Thomas: Excess Knowledge is by Monsun, the sire that has produced the last two Melbourne Cup winners in Fiorente and Protectionist, he is trained by Gai Waterhouse and ridden by Kerrin McEvoy, who both know how to win this race. He was brave winning the Lexus Stakes and tumbles to 51kg. He is a lightweight chance but I have a suspicion the Lexus might been his grand final.

Dufficy: That was his race on Derby Day, this is a whole different kettle of fish. He has the Gai Waterhouse factor but I can’t have him.

24: GUST OF WIND

Thomas: The only mare in the race, Gust Of Wind ran a blinder in the Caulfield Cup for fourth. We tend to forget she defeated Winx easily in the ATC Australian Oaks and look how that form stacks up now. I give her a good each-way chance.

Dufficy: She might lack that killer punch but I feel she will run two miles. She kept coming right to the line in the Caulfield Cup. She is an Oaks winner, John Sargent has the timing right with her, handles all types of conditions, can race forward or back and will pick up some prizemoney for sure.

THE TIPS

RAY THOMAS

1: TRIP TO PARIS

2: Preferment

3: Criterion

Best Roughie: Grand Marshal

RON DUFFICY

1: FAME GAME

2: Preferment

3: Trip To Paris

Best Roughie: Our Ivanhowe

Originally published as Melbourne Cup 2015: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy analyse every runner in Tuesday’s great race