Flemington track bias could ruin the Melbourne Cup

MELBOURNE Cup day could be about to turn into a giant farce with fears the Flemington track is not giving every horse its fair chance to win.

IS THE Flemington track stuffed? It was no good on Saturday for Derby Day, and there are fears that it’s again in no condition for an important day of racing.

The problem with Flemington on Derby Day is the ground on the inside near the running rail appeared quicker than the ground in the centre of the track.

That was the feedback from jockeys and the theory was borne out in the race results. Most Derby Day winners raced on the inside of the track rather than storming down the outside of that long Flemington straight as we so often see.

That’s because the ground in the middle of the track was slower. Horses just couldn’t accelerate there relative to their rivals on the better ground near the rails.

Victoria Racing Club stewards acknowledged the problem and aimed to fix it for today. Grass was mowed to a uniform 15cm length across the course, and they also shifted out the running rail two metres around the entire Flemington circuit. That, they claimed, would put Saturday’s so-called “fast-lane” out of play.

But it doesn’t seem to have done the trick.

Race 4 at Flemington on Melbourne Cup Day. Yep, the winner raced on the rail all the way. AAP Image/David Crosling.

There still appears to be a fast lane. Exactly the same same pattern of racing has emerged in the first five races on Melbourne Cup Day, with winners in the first four races at Flemington all racing either near the lead, or close to the rails.

You’re just not seeing the big runs from horses which like to sit back in the field for the first half of the race, then unleash sweeping runs around the field and storm down the inside.

Prominent owner and media personality Simon O’Donnell says the track is “playing out beautifully” and he “doesn’t know what everyone is talking about”. But plenty don’t see it that way.

Some are experts, others are just punters who can see the obvious for themselves.

#HorseRacing #RacingNews Flemington track bias confirmed – Melbourne Cup 2015 day https://t.co/9GfvUCnNtG

— Aust Horse Racing (@AustHorseRacing) November 3, 2015

This track has a rail bias. Anything riding along the rail will have a speed advantage in the straight at Flemington

— PT (@azninsect) November 3, 2015

Here’s what the website melbournetrackreport.com said this morning:

“The best ground will be near the inside rail and backmarkers will have to contend with the slow lane in the middle of the track, giving an advantage to the on pace runners. Inside barriers will assist.”

So it has proved.

The question is, what does this mean for the Melbourne Cup chances of your horse?

Well, it plays into the hands of the lighter-weighted horses like the United States and Gai Waterhouse’s Excess Knowledge. Criterion could be favoured, as might Snow Sky and Trip to Paris.

On the flip side, it’s definitely not what connections of Cup favourite Fame Game wanted to hear.

What we do know is that there will be even more of a mad scramble for forward positions than normal on the first lap this year.

We can also surmise that the field will not fan as wide as usual on the home turn. There will be crowding, bumping and hard luck stories galore in this year’s Cup as runners in the back half of the field try to sneak inside runs along that fast lane on the fence.

Originally published as Flemington track bias could ruin the Melbourne Cup