Kembla tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis

Form expert Ron Dufficy is very keen on Greek Hero, while Ray Thomas likes the chances of Stockman over a suitable distance. Plus best bets for Gosford and Kempsey.

The Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate the chances for the $1 million The Gong meeting at Kembla Grange on Saturday.

SUGGESTED BETS

DUFF’S BEST

Race 9, No. 10: GREEK HERO

NEXT BEST

Race 2 No. 5: ACTIVATION

VALUE

Race 6 No. 2: INTREPIDACIOUS

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

RAY’S BEST

Race 3 No. 2 STOCKMAN

NEXT BEST

Race 5 No. 1 PANDEMIC

Pandemic looks tough to beat in Race 5 at Kembla. Picture: Grant Guy

VALUE

Race 2 No. 5 ACTIVATION

KEMBLA GRANGE

Track: Good 4. Rail: True.

R1: (1.00pm): CANADIAN CLUB HCP (1500m)

Dufficy: This might be the smallest field on the program but it might be the toughest race. I’m leaning to Atlantic King. It is a bit tricky for him on the map but he is an improving horse, he is relatively lightly raced and off a good city win. I think he can get over the top of them. Air To Air has had a horror campaign with no luck going her way. Back to the scene of her only win, she gets her chance. Wairere Falls has had an easy trial since putting two nice wins together and appears on the rise. Knight is going through his classes. He gets a soft lead here and could give some cheek.

Thomas: I liked the way Atlantic King asserted his authority late to score over the Randwick mile last start. He was second-up that day so he should be even fitter for this race. The form from his last start win has been franked with Randwick runner-up Gone Bye winning his next outing at Canterbury. Atlantic King gets back in his races but has a powerful finishing surge. Knight looms scored a tough win at Newcastle over 1400m last start, leading most of the way. He should have no issue over this trip and is likely to get an uncontested lead. Foxborough will be improved by her good first-up effort and Wairere Falls is in a rich vein of form.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Atlantic King $4.60-$4.20-$4 ($300 @ $4.60, $400 @ $4.20), Knight $7-$5.50 ($1,500 e/w @ $7/$2.30, $250 e/w @ $7/$2.30, $350 @ $6)

R2: (1.35pm): TAB HIGHWAY (1600m)

Dufficy: I’m taken with Activation, the ex-Chris Waller now with Kody Nestor. He should have won all three races this preparation, he has been dominant winning his past two and he gives the impression he will run a strong 1600m. All King’s Trust has to do is stretch it out from 1300m to 1600m in a week. Obelos cruised up last start then appeared to flatten out so maybe the drier track will help him. Eva’s Deel gave away too much start last time and if she can hold a more forward position from that barrier, she is right in it.

Thomas: Activation has looked good unleashing brilliant bursts from back in the field to win by widening margins at Dubbo and Warren. He’s going to enjoy the big Kembla track and stepping up to 1600m. King’s Trust is on the quick back-up after winning the Highway at Newcastle last week over 1300m. He’s on trial at the mile but he’s in great form. All Over Magic monstered his rivals at Port Macquarie then struggled on the heavy track at Rosehill. He’s worth another chance back on top of the ground. She’s All In followed successive wins at the Sapphire Coast and Queanbeyan with a game effort for third in a Rosehill Highway after leading for most of the race. She’s a good each-way chance.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Activation $7.50-$4.60 ($500 @ $7.50, $500 @ $6, $640 @ $5.50, $400 @ $5, $250 e/w @ $4.80/$2), All Over Magic $11-$10-$11 ($300 x $200 e/w @ $11/$3.50, $300 @ $11), Diorissima $23-$15-$16

R3: (2.10pm) BENCHMARK 78 HCP (2000m)

Dufficy: I like Navy Cross. He gets a soft lead on a drier track, he should dictate terms to suit and he can run a really good race. Stockman is his danger. He needs a few breaks from a tricky draw but he is obviously a promising stayer. Accountability wasn’t expected to win last start so there is still upside to him and he may have returned a better horse. Vegas Jewel is racing consistently and has good claims.

Thomas: Stockman is my best on the day. He has just missed on wet tracks at his past two starts but over 2000m on top of the ground, he gets his chance. He is ready to win. Significance bolted in by a huge margin at Hawkesbury. He can mix his form but his last-start effort, albeit against weaker opposition, was impressive. Navy Cross is improving with racing but with Significance in the field, he might get taken on for the lead. Accountability burst through the pack to win well last start and is an improving type.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Stockman $4.60-$4.40 ($300 e/w @ $4.60/$1.95, $300 @ $4.60)

Stockman is the best bet of the day for Ray Thomas. Picture: Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images

R4: (2.45pm): BENCHMARK 78 HCP (1000m)

Dufficy: A guessing game with Mansa Musa. He is a speedy horse and resumes without a trial. It’s a similar set-up to last preparation when he won first-up so, that being the case, I think he is ready to go at odds. Destination won here last year as a two-year-old and certainly this is a big drop in class after he was competitive in a couple of Listed races. I also think back to 1000m is the key for Destination. Broken Arrows was desperately unlucky at this meeting last year in this race and I would say this is a target race for him. With all the speed upfront, Hulk, back to 1000m, could easily finish over the top of them.

Thomas: Destination ran so well against Wild Ruler in the Heritage Stakes two starts back that I have to go with him. He ran unplaced on a wet track last start so I’m prepared to forgive him for that loss. Destination is unbeaten in two races at Kembla Grange, which are the only wins of his nine-start career. He can make it three from three on this track. Mansa Musa is a noted first-up performer and I also expect Hulk to be charging home. Iconic Star failed first-up but she is a smart mare and is capable of running well.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Destination $2.70-$2.90-$2.70 ($522 @ $2.90, $500 @ $2.90, $400 @ $2.80)

R5: (3.25pm) BENCHMARK 78 HCP (1200m)

Dufficy: I think everyone has got this as a race between Big Parade and Pandemic. I feel Big Parade’s racing style gives him the advantage as he can pop up outside the leader here, which will help him. He’s a gelding now, he’s won those two barrier trials and he has shown a lot of talent. That’s not saying Pandemic is not a good chance of beating Big Parade — he just needs the breaks to go his way. His first-up run was good in a fast race at Warwick Farm. Mo’s Crown found the heavy 9 too much for him first-up and he will improve. The best of the rest is Ghostly, who won at this meeting last year.

Thomas: I’ve gone with Pandemic over Big Parade for what is shaping as a compelling race. Pandemic will be giving Big Parade a start, but the long Kembla straight suits the Godolphin sprinter and he will be charging home. Big Parade is a talent and his trials suggest he is in for a good campaign. He will give Pandemic something to chase. I also have Mo’s Crown and Ghostly as place chances.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Pandemic $3.80-$4-$3.70 ($500 @ $4, $450 @ $3.90), Big Parade $3-$2.70-$2.60 ($400 @ $3, $1,500 @ $2.70)

R6: (4.05pm): BENCHMARK 78 HCP (1200m)

Dufficy: I’m keen on Intrepidacious. I think she is flying and John O’Shea has been patient since her brilliant first-up win waiting for a dry track. She has had two barrier trials where she has looked good and is going better this preparation. There is one at huge odds I’m wary of and that is In Lighten Me. She has won three times fresh at her past three preparations, she has had an easy trial where she has looked good and she is the longshot in the race who could surprise. Macroura did enough first-up but didn’t really run to the market. We will learn more on a dry track and she has enough ability. Macushla ran well at her first run for Chris Waller and she should come on with that run.

Thomas: There was market confidence for Macroura first-up and although she ran only third, perhaps the taxing, heavy conditions were against her. She was a stakes winner in fast time as a juvenile and will be fitter for that recent Rosehill placing. From the good barrier, Macroura will be in a controlling position and prove hard to beat. Intrepidacious has had more than five weeks between runs since winning so well when resuming at the Warwick Farm midweeks. She has been kept up to the mark with two trials and just needs a touch of luck from her wide draw. Stolen Jade is in career-best form and Dunbrody Power is over the odds.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Intrepidacious $6-$4.60 ($400 @ $4.80), Macroura $4.20-$3.70-$3.80 ($300 @ $4.40, $300 @ $3.90)

Purple Sector in Duff’s pick in the $1 million The Gong. Picture: Grant Guy

R7: (4.45pm) THE GONG (1600m)

Dufficy: This is a ripping race when you think there are horses coming out of a Group 1 last start and they are not favourites for this, which just underlines the depth of this field. I’m with the up-and-comer Purple Sector. He was brilliant winning the Spring Mile at Randwick, running fantastic sectionals, and then I don’t think he was himself at Flemington, seemed all at sea, but still got the job done. His three runs since he was gelded have been absolutely outstanding and I want to go his way. Dawn Passage does half-pick himself as he sets up beautifully third-up and back to a dry track is the key. If there is a slight concern, it is probably running a strong 1600m. The forgotten horse is Bottega, who is much better weighted here in comparison with Dawn Passage off their Golden Eagle clash. The draw is the issue for Bottega. Asiago is on a quick back-up and they just didn’t go hard enough for her in The Hunter. She has won two races on this track, including over a mile and she is right in the race.

Thomas: Dawn Passage will get every opportunity to run a strong 1600m after drawing the inside barrier. He should settle third on the fence behind Positive Peace and Archedemus and get the run of the race. Dawn Passage’s two runs back, including his third placing in the Golden Eagle, shows he is in top form and he will enjoy getting back on to a good track. The danger is Rock. He comes off a Group 1 placing when third in the Cantala over a mile and gets the dry track he needs. Cascadian ran second in the Cantala and he also rates among the main chances. I’m wary of Olmedo, who ran well enough first-up to suggest he is a horse to follow. Terrific, even contest.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Dawn Passage $4.80-$5-$4.60 ($500 @ $5, $400 @ $5, $4,000 @ $4.80), Purple Sector $5.50-$4.40 ($500 @ $5.50, $400 @ $5.50, $1,000 @ $5, $1,000 @ $4.60, $500 @ $4.40), Asiago $14-$12-$11

R8: (5.25pm) BENCHMARK 88 HCP (1600m)

Dufficy: I’m tipping Vegas Jewel if she runs here. She has a lot of weight relief, has her hoof right on the till and her level of consistency suggests this is the right race for her. Ulusaba ran a much-improved race last week on a dry track. He gets it again third-up on a quick back-up and I can’t see much pressure on him for the lead so he will run well again. Berdibek landed nice bets winning first-up at Flemington, he carries big weights well and should be charging home again. Soldier Of Love was in the market first-up and I would suggest he is a better horse second-up, so expect a big improvement from him.

Thomas: Elaborate was suited by the heavy track but his effort to edge out Stockman when resuming at Rosehill was good. Sprinted well fresh but even better suited getting out to 1600m and further. Emerging type who is also effective on top of the ground. Berdibek was excellent winning at Flemington first-up and is well suited here despite the big weight. Soldier Of Love is fitter now and a big improver. Aqua D’ivina is a classy mare and can run a race at huge odds.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Soldier Of Love $11-$9.50, Matowi $8.50-$6-$6.50 ($500 @ $8.50, $300 e/w @ $7.50/$2.50, $300 x $280 e/w @ $6/$2.20)

Vegas Jewel (left) is a big chance in Race 8 at Kembla. Picture: Micheal Klein

R9: (6.00pm) BENCHMARK 78 HCP (1400m)

Dufficy: I’m hot on Greek Hero. He finally gets a dry track, loved his two trials and although the latest one was a month ago, he’s ready to go and will be hard to beat from the good draw. There is a real smoky in this race with Main Stage at any old odds having his first run for Gwenda Markwell. He’s had a soft trial, showed a heap of ability in Melbourne and I’m wary of him. Night Of Power has been gelded and is not out of this after being placed in a couple of trials. Rule The World just didn’t come up last preparation but his two trials have been nice enough and if he finds his old form, he will be hard to beat.

Thomas: Greek Hero gets everything made to order here. He won first-up on this track over 1500m at his Australian debut last campaign, he’s drawn to get the run of the race and has his preferred good racing surface. He ticks a lot of boxes in a winnable race. I’m also wary of Rule The World. He is a talented galloper and looks to have found his spark again in recent trials. Misteed is back in form and Monegal at big odds is a good lightweight chance.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Greek Hero $4.60-$3.80-$3.30 ($300 e/w @ $4.60/$1.90, $500 @ $3.80, $500 @ $3.60)

SATURDAY EXTRA

SHAYNE O’CASS’S TOP PICKS

GOSFORD

BEST BET:

Race 5, No. 1: COLOURS

Half million dollar yearling bought by Godolphin by I Am Invincible out of Queensland Oaks winner Tinto. Trialling like she will be in the Guineas up there in January.

NEXT BEST

Race 2, No. 9: IMPERIAL GREY

Dundeel colt from the Paul Perry camp who is crying out for the opportunity to get out to a trip. Small field suits and will be strong late.

VALUE

Race 6, No. 10: EVENING BRIDE

Edward Cummings trained filly who has sent out some encouraging signs for the future in her trials. Drawn well and has Keagan Latham to steer.

QUADDIE

Race 5: 1

Race 6: 2,10,11

Race 7: 1,3,4

Race 8: 2,6,8

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

Keagan Latham is two behind Tommy Berry on the NSW Provincial Premiership table going into today.

KEMPSEY

BEST BET

Race 3, No. 2: NEPTUNE’S WINK

Local trained here by Barry Ratcliff. Only won once in 15 starts but has placed four times frequently in better company than this.

NEXT BEST

Race 2, No. 4: EXPRESS DRAGON

Placed one from six but has been around the money in four of the other five starts. Gets his best chance to shed the maiden status today.

VALUE

Race 1, No. 1: NIGHTMARE

Marc Quinn trained gelding who is winless after 10 starts but he likewise has never been in a race where he is the one to beat.