Inside Mail and The Judgement: Expects give their final word on Royal Randwick

Hugh Bowman and Cascadian head to Royal Randwick with the chance to each achieve a piece of racing history.

Hugh Bowman is looking to Bring up his 100th Group 1 winner at Randwick on Saturday. (Photo by Mark Evans/Getty Images)

Godolphin’s Cascadian and champion jockey Hugh Bowman have a date with destiny in the Group 1 $1.5 million The TAB Epsom (1600m) at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

Cascadian is attempting to become only the fourth horse to complete the Doncaster-Epsom double in the same year after Racing To Win (2006), Super Impose (1990, 1991) and Hyman (1909).

Bowman goes to Randwick on 99 Group 1 wins and if he can get that big-race win, he will be only the fourth jockey after Damien Oliver, George Moore and Jim Cassidy to ride a century a big-race winners.

Cascadian goes into the Epsom after three solid runs at weight-for-age this spring and although he has been unplaced in each, Cummings feels the return to handicap conditions for the Epsom brings Cascadian right into the race.

Cascadian will attempt to join an elite group by claiming the Doncaster/Epsom double in the same year. Picture: Grant Guy

“He makes the switch from weight-for-age back to the handicaps,” Cummings said.

“It is really interesting because they generally seem to be run much different. “He’s well and truly fit enough to be making a run at them.”

Bowman linked with Cummings to win the Epsom with Hartnell in 2018 and he also rode all-time great Winx to win the race in 2015.

The Hall of Fame jockey has two other very good opportunities to get that 100th major as he also rides classy filly Mallory in the Group 1 $750,000 Flight Stakes (2400m) and top mare Montefilia in the Group 1 $750,000 The Metropolitan (2400m).

THE BEST BARRIERS

The best barriers at Royal Randwick for the last three years (in order of wins)

1000m: 5,3,4,2

1200m: 7,1,6,8

1600m: 4,3,10,1

2000m: 2,1,7,5

2400m: 1,2,4,3

THE BIG BETS AND MARKET MOVERS

Race 1: Lancaster Bomber $13-$9-$8.50, Oh Please Dianna $9.50-$7 with bets of $400 at $9.50, $500 at $7.50, Capital Reign $3.10-$3.20-$2.70-$3 with bets of $350 at $3.20, $477 at $3.10, $750 at $2.90, $1,000 at $2.90, $500 at $2.90, Ashema $9.50-$7.50 including bets of $400 at $9.50, $500 at $7.50, Rejinsky $23-$13

Race 2: Coolangatta $2.15-$2.20-$1.95-$2 with bets of $500 at $2, Deep Expectation $26-$19, Street Smarts $101-$71, Wild Botanica $8-$7-$7.50 with a bet of $200 at $8

Race 3: Hard To Say $51-$21, Master Showman $26-$18, Zambezi River $6-$5-$5.50 with bets of $750 at $5.50, $400 at $5

Race 4: Al Mah Haha $26-$34-$12 with a bet of $500 at $34

Race 5: Think It Over $4-$2.25-$2 with bets of $2,500 at $2, $500 at $2, $400 at $2, $300 at $2

Race 6: Masked Crusader $2.80-$3-$2.40 with bets of $500 at $3, $362 at $2.90, $500 at $2.60 twice, $500 at $2.40, Rothfire $3.60-$3.30-$3.40 with a bet of $500 at $3.30

Race 7: Mallory $6-$4.80 with a bet of $15,385 at $6.50, Startantes $3.70-$4 after a bet of $1,000 at $4, $800 at $4, $500 at $4, Fangirl $13-$11-$12-$14 with bets of $200 e/w at $13/$3.80, $500 at $12, $250 e/w at $12/$3.60, $200 at $12, Stray $51-$41-$26 after bets of $1,000 e/w at $51/$11, $2,000/$1,000 e/w at $41/$9

Race 8: Mo’unga $6-$7.50-$6.50 with bets of $300 at $7.50, $400 e/w at $6.50/$2.50, Dalasan $15-$16-$13 including a bet of $200/$500 e/w at $16/$4.80, Hungry Heart $8-$7.50-$8.50 with bets of $500 at $8, $300 at $7.50, $300/$200 e/w at $7.50/$2.62, $1,000 at $7.50, Icebath $9-$9.50-$10 with bets of $500 at $9.50, $400 at $9.50, $500 at $9, Riodini $5-$4.40-$5-$4.80 with bets of $500 at $5, $2,500 at $4.80, $3,500 at $4.60, $4,000 at $4.60, $300 at $4.40, Private Eye $13-$8 after bets of $300 at $13, $400 at $12, $500 at $11, $200/$500 e/w at $10/$3.25, $400 at $9.50, $500 at $9, $1,700 at $8, $1,300 at $8, $500 e/w at $8/$2.80, $500 at $8, Atishu $15-$17 with bets of $500 e/w at $17/$5, $200/$300 e/w at $16/$4.75, Sky Lab $26-$19 with a bet of $300 e/w at $19/$5

Race 9: Entente $11-$7-$6 with a bet of $300 e/w at $9/$3, Great House $17-$15, No Compromise $15-$13, Zeyrek $51-$10-$8 with bets of $500 at $23, $300 at $19, $500 at $9.50 twice, $500 at $9

Race 10: Big Parade $5-$3.90-$4 with bets of $250 at $5, $300 at $4.60, $250 at $4, Prime Candidate $21-$10 with bets of $3,000 at $11, $400 at $11 twice, Never Talk $13-$11-$12-$10 with a bet of $300 at $12, $200 at $11, Gravina $7-$4.80-$3 after bets of $350 at $7, $200 at $7, $750 at $6.50, $350 at $6, $450 at $5.50, $500 at $5, $400 e/w at $4.80/$2, $750 at $3.50

Mallory has been well-supported to win the Group 1 Flight Stakes. Picture: Getty Images

EARLY QUADDIE

Race 3: 4,9,13,14

Race 4: 1,2,3,5

Race 5: 1,8

Race 6: 1,5,7

QUADDIE

Race 7: 2,3,5,12

Race 8: 1,7,12,17

Race 9: 3,8,12,20

Race 10: 1,6,12

PRICE CHECK

Private Eye (race 8) and Zeyrek (race 9) have been sensationally backed to win the Epsom-Metropolitan double. Private Eye has firmed from $13-$8 to win the Epsom after consistent support this week including bets of $500 at $11, $200/$500 each way at $10/$3.25, $1,700 at $8, $1,300 at $8, $500 each way at $8/$2.80. Zeyrek opened at $51 earlier in the week but he is into $8 after bets of $500 at $23, $300 at $19, $500 at $9.50 twice, $500 at $9.

Private Eye has had good support to win the Epsom after opening at a generous $13. Picture: Grant Guy

TRIAL POINTERS

Coolangatta (race 2) was deemed by many avid trial watchers to be the most impressive of all the two-year-olds who appeared at the official two-year-old trials on the Kensington track last Monday week. The Maher/Eustace-trained filly merely ambled up to the leader 200m out and roared away under no pressure from her rider James McDonald to win by upwards of three lengths. Coolangatta, a $280,000 Magic Millions Yearling Sale purchase is a daughter of star sire Written Tycoon out of a mare who is a half-sister to the Blue Diamond winner, Reaan.

Emperor (race 3) makes his debut in the time-honoured Breeders’ Plate having earned his berth by winning the last of the 11 heats on the Kensington track on September 30. The Matthew Dunn-trained colt (who raced as Genghis Khan on the day) was a narrow winner in the end but seemed to do it well within himself and was holding the runner-up comfortably at the end. Emperor was bought for $460,000 at the Easter Yearling Sale and is a son of I Am Invincible out of Jolie Bay who won the Roman Consul and is herself a sister to dual hemisphere Group 1 winner, Merchant Navy.

SECTIONAL STARS

Von Trapp (race 7) is clearly a filly on an upward trajectory which of course she will need to be given that she has only won a provincial maiden a matter of two starts ago. That said, the Mark Newnham-trained daughter of super sire Frankel was, for many, the run of the race in the Tea Rose behind Flight Stakes rivals Four Moves Ahead and Mallory. On that day, Von Trapp was taken back from her wide draw and was near enough to last on the turn but managed to clock in fourth spot owing to her 12.05s last 200m which was the best of any filly in the race.

Aramayo (race 8) is perfectly tuned to win yet another famous Randwick mile for the master, Chris Waller. Originally a member of the Godolphin string, Aramayo spent time in Singapore where he rose to become one of the best horses there evidenced by his win in the Raffles Cup over the Epsom trip. Aramayo was runner-up to Zaaki in the Tramway first-up before an eye-catching third in the Bill Ritchie where he was afforded the fastest last 600m, 400m and 200m splits in the run home.

Think It Over looks hard to beat in the Hill Stakes. Picture: Grant Guy

BEST BET

Think It Over (race 5) has developed into an elite performer this year winning the George Ryder Stakes and finishing a close fourth in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes to Addeybb and Verry Elleegant over the Randwick 2000m course last autumn. He has returned in spring to win the Chelmsford Stakes before his game third in the George Main Stakes. Think It Over raced wide without cover for most of the race last start and still ran on very gamely. Think It Over is in great form and clearly the one to beat in the Hill Stakes.

VALUE BET

Sky Lab (race 8) showed his quality in the autumn when narrowly beaten by Mo’unga in the Rosehill Guineas. He has been improved by two runs from a spell including a close second in the Cameron Handicap at Newcastle after enduring a wide run without cover. Sky Lab gets into the Epsom with only 52.5kg (jockey Tim Clark rides 2kg over), drawn to get the right run and he meets race favourite Mo’unga 4.5kg better at the weights.

THE JUDGMENT

Race 7: Flight Stakes (1600m)

Paul Joice (Sky Thoroughbred Central): “Not much between these fillies so luck/best ride might prove the difference. Mallory has drawn to get all the favours and with Bowman aboard am leaning that way. Four Moves Ahead the danger with Von Trapp the best roughie.”

Glenn Munsie (Sky Sports Radio): “We’ve had a different winner of each of the lead up races with half the field coming through the Tea Rose. Mallory finally found a better run in transit but then couldn’t get a crack at them late and deserves a breakthrough win here. Been strong to line at last couple so 1600m poses no threat to me and surely gets a good run in this. Very wide to Von Trapp and Stray.”

Grant Palmer (bookie): “Mallory didn’t get a fair crack at Four Moves Ahead over the final stages last start and I think she can turn the tables here. There has been some good each way support for the Chris Waller trained She’s All Class but she has looked ordinary to me at both starts this prep and I could not have her.”

Michael Sullivan (bookie): “Mallory looks the horse potentially most suited out to the mile and looks to map the best. Happy to lean her way in what looks another even fillies race. Left Reeling a big price.”

Andrew Georgiou (TAB): “I’ve been on Mallory all the way through this prep and I won’t be jumping off. Fangirl is definitely the value after its impressive win at Goulburn. Stray has been specked at big odds.”

Verdict: Mallory

Riodini (light blue, white cap) looks well placed to win the Epsom with his light weight. Picture: Getty Images

Race 8: The Epsom (1600m)

Paul Joice (Sky Thoroughbred Central): “Riodini has the perfect profile coming into this. Rock solid weight-for-age form, drops back to 51.5kg under handicap conditions and has on-pace racing style. Aramayo a real lightweight chance with the right draw. Mo'unga faces a big ask under 57kg but has the class.”

Glenn Munsie (Sky Sports Radio): “A firm deck and light weight sees me wanting to be with Aramayo here at juicy odds. Strong on resumption behind Zaaki then made ground late last start on a rain affected track which doesn’t suit. Gets to a mile third-up and should position much closer in the run drawing barrier 5 rather than outside draws last couple when immediately eased out to rear early. Star Of The Seas big improver ridden to suit.”

Grant Palmer (bookie): “There has been a big move for Dalasan who opened at $18. He ran third in a Doncaster and James McDonald takes the reins. I am sticking with Mo’unga who should peak here third up and will be finishing hard. The favourite Riodini has been well supported and looks a strong chance with only 51.5kg on his back.”

Michael Sullivan (bookie): “Great Epsom. Track conditions to play a big part and if the rain arrives think Icebath gets her chance. Suited at handicap conditions and loves the Randwick mile. Harmony Rose looks the horse over the odds.”

Andrew Georgiou (TAB): “Riodini was the first horse backed after the barrier draw but there’s been solid support for several runners including Icebath. I’m in the corner of Private Eye who hasn’t had luck at his past two.”

Verdict: Riodini

Race 9: The Metropolitan (2400m)

Paul Joice (Sky Thoroughbred Central): “Entente maps to enjoy the run of the race. In-form and proven at the trip he’s the one to beat. She’s Ideel also loves the 2400m and comes here in winning form. Huge threat. Zeyrek to enjoy a charmed run with no weight. Include.”

Glenn Munsie (Sky Sports Radio): “Really think this is going to develop into survival of the fittest with a number of them that like to roll along drawn all across track. Will need a JMac special here on Attorney from outside barrier but he gets back anyway. Been strong late at his two runs back and has a good record at 2400m in a race where there is still question marks over a couple at the trip.”

Grant Palmer (bookie): “Some big moves for a number of runners here including Zeyrek, No Compromise, Great House and Luncies. I liked the way Zeyrek finished last start and the extra 400m will suit him. Gets in with a light weight and has drawn well in barrier 3.”

Michael Sullivan (bookie): “No Compromise arguably should have won the Newcastle Cup with clear air. Hardly put a foot wrong in Australia and I think represents great value at $13. She’s Ideel very hard to beat if they can run on.”

Andrew Georgiou (TAB): “Zeyrek has been a huge move after going up $51 on Tuesday. I don’t mind his chances but the win of Entente in the Colin Stephen has me leaning his way.”

Verdict: Entente