Golden Slipper Day Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy
Racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy give their take on every runner in the Golden Slipper plus analysis for all the big races at Rosehill Gardens. TAB MARKET MOVERS
Off & Racing: Davo’s tips for Slipper Day
Weekend Best Bets: Who to back at the track
Racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy give their take on every runner in the Golden Slipper plus analysis for all the big races at Rosehill Gardens.
ROSEHILL GARDENS
Track: Heavy 8. Rail: 3m out.
R7 (4.30pm): GOLDEN SLIPPER (1200m)
1. YES YES YES
Dufficy: I think Yes Yes Yes is the forgotten horse now he has drawn the outside barrier and is getting longer in the market every time I look at it. But I still think he is the horse to beat. He showed a brilliant turn of speed from back in the field in the Todman Stakes, Blake Shinn hasn’t made a tactical mistake since he’s returned from injury and he’s the man for the job. Hopefully he ends up three wide with cover and will be very hard to beat.
Thomas: Yes Yes Yes could not have been more impressive in the Todman Stakes. He accelerated brilliantly from the back of the field, reeled the leaders in quickly, won with authority and ran very fast time. His wide barrier and the rain-affected track are concerns but he’s in my top four.
2. MICROPHONE
Dufficy: We won’t know if the rails is an advantage until the day unfolds but this colt is going from strength to strength. He does set up well here after winning the Skyline Stakes impressively and the form has been franked with Cosmic Force winning last week. There are a lot of positives for Microphone and he deserves to be one of the favourites.
Thomas: The Godolphin colt looked a real “pro” tracking Cosmic Force into the straight then powering past to win the Skyline Stakes. The winner of three of his four starts, Microphone has drawn the rails barrier and will get the run of the race. One of the hardest to beat.
3: TIME TO REIGN
Dufficy: It appears his best form, although patchy, has been in high pressure races in soft going. He is sure to have his admirers. He is not in my top four but no shock to see him run very well.
Thomas: Time To Reign has to bounce back from his struggling sixth to Yes Yes Yes in the Skyline Stakes – but he could do just that given he enjoys rain-affected conditions. He did score a dominant win the Silver Slipper on a soft 7 two stats back. I think he is the best value runner in the race.
4: FREE OF DEBT
Dufficy: He was the only survivor of the on-pace runners in the Blue Diamond and his trial since was OK, although he wandered about a bit on the home turn. He’s still learning to race the Sydney way but he could show up for awhile.
Thomas: Adelaide-trained colt won his first two starts then was brave finishing third in the Blue Diamond to Lyre. He was in the contest for a long way at Caulfield and was beaten less than a length on the line. He did trial very well in soft conditions at Randwick last week. Each-way chance.
5: COSMIC FORCE
Dufficy: Usually the Pago Pago Stakes is for the second-tier of two-year-olds but that’s not the case with Cosmic Force. He won by more than seven lengths in good time on the heavy track last week and we are working on a soft 7 or heavy 8 track. The market place loves him, his figures read well, the professionals are all over him – he’s hard to beat.
Thomas: Cosmic Force was dynamic winning the Pago Pago last week by a huge margin. He cruised through the heavy track conditions and careered away from his rivals without being fully tested. He gets another wet track which is a big plus for this colt, as is his perfect barrier in gate two. He is going to get all the favours. He’s my top pick.
6: DUBIOUS
Dufficy: Dubious is a tough, seasoned two-year-old and his only soft track test was in a Canterbury trial, which he won, although Yes Yes Yes outpointed him. He’s a fighter and they have had the blinkers up their sleeve for the big day.
Thomas: He won the Breeders’ Plate at the start of the season, he was second in the Magic Millions over summer, was competitive in the Todman Stakes and turns up in the Golden Slipper. He’s got the experience, bred to handle the wet but his wide barrier is a concern.
7: LYRE
Dufficy: Lyre’s a very good filly, I’m wary of her. I’m not a fan of the month between runs on a wet track here but she was fantastic winning her Randwick trial in soft conditions last week and there are glowing reports about her coming out of the stable. She must be respected.
Thomas: I liked the way she surged late to win the Blue Diamond and you know she will be strong at the business end of a high-pressure Golden Slipper. This daughter of Lonhro won a Sale maiden in January and has improved out of sight with every run since. She can win.
8: LANKAN STAR
Dufficy: She got a bit lost on a heavy tack last week. It is very hard to back up from that performance and turn it around so quickly, particularly as we are working on a similar track.
Thomas: She did run second in the Blue Diamond, albeit on a good track. But I agree with your summation Ronnie, she will struggle.
9: TENLEY
Dufficy: She has the unbeaten factor and she is a very strong filly. She returned great sectionals winning last start, she’s had the perfect preparation, we have no guide on her wet track ability but she definitely has a ‘‘motor”. With the make-up of this race, she can settle a lot closer and is definitely in the top four chances.
Thomas: Tenley it the best of the fillies. She unleashes off a fast tempo as she demonstrated winning the Reisling Stakes last start so she will be suited by the way the Slipper will be run. If she handles the rain-affected track she will be in the finish.
10: PIN SEC
Dufficy: Pin Sec is the only other unbeaten runner in the race. Her effort to win the Black Opal was exceptional she loomed up at the 100m then put four lengths on her rivals which is something you don’t see often. I’m not discounting her, she could be a very good filly.
Thomas: There was no fluke about her Black Opal effort as she put two handy colts in Rome and McLaren to the sword. She’s well drawn and can settle in the front half, within striking distance. She is out of a Commands mare and is bred to handle the wet track. One of the main chances.
11: ANAHEED
Dufficy: At least Anaheed is proven on a heavy track and that is what her connections are pinning their hopes on. She is a smart filly trained by Team Snowden who have an uncanny knack of getting their timing right on the big day.
Thomas: Anaheed’s runaway win in the Victory Vein Plate on a heavy track on Everest Day can’t be ignored. She was dynamic that day and she hasn’t done much wrong since, including winning the Sweet Embrace Stakes. She is her right odds at $21 but could sneak a place.
12: KIAMICHI
Dufficy: She went to a new level last week, and was good doing it at both ends in the heavy as well. But Cosmic Force showed her up time-wise last week and I feel she has a lot of work to do from that wide draw.
Thomas: Kiamichi gave an impressive display of sustained speed to win last week but she won’t get it as easy in front here. However, she is one of the few youngsters in the field who will handle the track.
13: CATCH ME
Dufficy: Catch Me was an angel earlier in Sydney when she won the Gimcrack Stakes but she went to Melbourne and lost her marbles. She is a talented filly but it is going to be hard for her to bounce back attitude-wise and win a Golden Slipper.
Thomas: Catch Me looked more her old self in a Randwick trial win last week. She has drawn wide but they will ride her quietly. She has the ability to run well if she gets the breaks in running. At $34, I think she is overs.
14: VINCERE VOLARE
Dufficy: She was honest finishing third in the Reisling Stakes behind Tenley but she is untried in the wet and just lacks a couple of lengths.
Thomas: Vincere Volare tried very hard in the Reisling but this is only going to be tougher again. A place chance at best.
15: EXHILARATES
Dufficy: I feel she is one of the better longshots in the race and her odds of $21 are a bit silly. She paraded very fresh in the Reisling was pigrooting and squealing so that tells me she has more to come. The timing looks perfect with her and her dam won in the wet. There are a lot of positives except her wide barrier. She will have to go back from a wide barrier but Kerrin McEvoy can weave through a field better than anyone.
Thomas: Exhilarates had to come from a long way back to win the Magic Millions under McEvoy in January and will have to do the same to win the Golden Slipper. It is not beyond her as she is a top class filly. She is bred to handle the soft and is definitely one of the better each-way chances.
16: LOVING GABY
Dufficy: In 12 months, Loving Gaby might be the one we are talking about but whether she can win this, I’m not sure. She has had a month between runs and only a 735m trial going into the grand final. She is a very talented filly and I’m not saying no to her because I like her so much.
Thomas: Loving Gaby is a big filly with loads of natural talent. She didn’t have any luck in the Blue Diamond but she went about her business in style in that Randwick trial. Like you Ronnie I can’t put a line through her.
EMERGENCIES
17: BIVOUAC
Dufficy: He has a win over Cosmic Force on a heavy track. His Todman Stakes run was OK as he was wide with no cover. Of the horses at $31 and longer, he’s the best of them.
Thomas: The Cosmic Force that Bivouac defeated in the Lonhro Plate has improved lengths since and I don’t think Bivouac has improved at the same rate.
18: ROME
Dufficy: The Snowden stable have always had a wrap on Rome but he is still a maiden and Pin Sec toyed with him in the Black Opal.
Thomas: I’m not sure Rome appreciated being ridden on speed last start but he needs to improve considerably to be any chance in this race.
19: BELLEVUE HILL
Dufficy: He was brilliant on debut at Canberra then really shaped up in the Todman Stakes behind Yes Yes Yes. He could be a surprise packet if gets a run but that is highly unlikely.
Thomas: Very promising colt who can win a good race over the carnival — but it won’t be the Golden Slipper.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Microphone $6-$7 ($1,000 @ $7, $1,000 e/w @ $7/$2.50, $800 @ $7, $750 @ $7, $500 @ $7 MULTIPLE TIMES), Time To Reign $15-$13 ($5,000 x $2,000 e/w @ $14/$4.20), Cosmic Force $5-$4.40 ($3,150 x $1,450 e/w @ $5/$2.10, $800 @ $5, $500 @ $4.40), Tenley $6 unchanged ($6,000 @ $6, $2,000 @ $6 TWICE, $1,300 @ $6, $1,000 @ $6 MULTIPLE TIMES, $500 @ $6), Loving Gaby $15-$17 ($500 @ $17, $490 @ $17, $300 @ $17)
*******
R1 (12.30pm): BIRTHDAY CARD STAKES (1200m)
Dufficy: At first glance, Resin is one of the better bets of the day but, at second glance, the map has her having to be dragged back early. But if she gets any luck from the draw, she has good soft track form, is unbeaten second-up and James McDonald sticks. Sweet Scandal ran a fantastic race last start after having no luck. She meets Resin better at the weights. Avantage has a great record of six wins from seven starts and is a huge query. She’s coming off a decent break but she’s had two trials and is three from three on soft tracks. Serene Miss is ready to improve.
Thomas: Resin looks very hard to beat. She was very good first-up, finishing a close third to Winter Bride at Randwck and ticks all the boxes here, with the exception of the barrier. With even luck she wins. I agree Sweet Scandal is the danger but the draw hasn’t been kind to her either. She Knows is working up to a win and Serene Miss is the value runner at double-figure odds.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Resin $4.40-$3.60 ($300 @ $4.40, $500 @ $4), Avantage $3.50-$4.40-$4.80 ($300 @ $4.40), Star Reflection $15-$16-$15 ($300 @ $16)
R2 (1.10pm): DARBY MUNRO STAKES (1200m)
Dufficy: Classique Legend has been so impressive in his two starts it is impossible to tip against him. He has only won a maiden and a benchmark 70, he’s at rock-bottom odds, but I think he just wins again. Gem Song would have been top pick without the setback but he’s a good colt who handles soft tracks. Charge is at his best when allowed to run along in front. Prophet’s Thumb stamped herself as a very good filly winning her last two starts.
Thomas: I went the other way Ronnie, simply because of the odds. Gem Song is a quality colt and is not badly treated 2.5kg over the 56kg limit. At $7.50 he’s value compared to the $1.80 being bet about Classique Legend. I concede Classique Legend looks a potential topliner and is the one to beat. Of the others, Wild Planet is underrated and Wagner is back in winning form.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Gem Song $8-$7.50 ($2,200 @ $7.50), Wild Planet $26-$13-$15 ($500 @ $26, $1,000 @ $17), Military Zone $15-$12 ($400 @ $14, $300 @ $12), Classique Legend $1.95-$1.80 ($1,500 @ $1.95, $1,000 @ $1.95, $500 @ $1.95, $1,000 @ $1.80,
$500 @ $1.80)
R3 (1.45pm): N.E. MANION CUP (2400m)
Dufficy: Shraaoh is an emerging stayer who seems to have beaten the handicapper. He put in a great Sydney Cup trial second-up, he can only improve and with no weight on his back, he is the one to beat. Big Duke is the danger as he appreciates a wet track and 2400m. Jaameh is a tough stayer with good wet track form overseas. Midterm bears a lot of respect and wasn’t far off winning The Metropolitan last year. The blinkers go on, which is a sign of intent.
Thomas: The day Shraaoh won at his Australian debut on a heavy track at Flemington on Cup Day last year he created a huge impression. He looks a natural talent and his two runs back this autumn have him ready to win here. I’m very keen on him. Midterm ran a blinder first-up and is the danger. Big Blue likes wet tracks as does Etymology.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Shraaoh $5-$4-$3.40 ($300 e/w @ $4.80/$2, $300 @ $4, $500 @ $3.50 TWICE)
R4 (2.25pm): ROSEHILL GUINEAS (2000m)
Dufficy: The only chink in The Autumn Sun’s armour is his price – he’s into $1.35, which is getting ridiculous odds. But he is a star colt and lifted off the canvas to win the Randwick Guineas last start. Everyone has been waiting for him to get to 2000m and should be able to settle closer. Madison County ran on well in the Randwick Guineas behind The Autumn Sun and is the main danger. Surely Sacred had no luck as favourite in the NZ Derby and that race has been a good form reference for the Rosehill Guineas. I’m looking for a good Derby trial from Chapada.
Thomas: The Autumn Sun is a genuine superstar. It was an amazing effort by the colt to win the Randwick Guineas and as you pointed out Ronnie, he’s finally out to 2000m. Bad luck is his only danger. Costello is an improving young stayer and if can run a competitive race then he is on track for the Derby in two weeks. Madison County commands respect and Dealmaker handles soft tracks and is racing well.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: The Autumn Sun $1.60-$1.65-$1.50-$1.35 ($110,000 @ $1.65, $15,000 @ $1.60, $12,000 @ $1.55, $5,000 @ $1.55, $5,000 @ $1.40, $3,000 @ $1.35), Costello $51-$34-$41
R5 (3.05pm): GEORGE RYDER STAKES (1500m)
Dufficy: Winx is the star of the show. I can’t wait to see her back on a wet track where she scored one of her most explosive wins in the Ryder Stakes two years ago. This race doesn’t look tactical as Dreamforce, Prompt Response and even Brutal should ensure it is run at a solid tempo. She will just chime in when Hugh Bowman is ready and give us all goosebumps again. I’m looking for Dreamforce to produce a good Doncaster trial, he has come up well. Land Of Plenty is ready to do something and Ringerdingding should be running on late.
Thomas: Winx seems to be going as well as her. She was dynamic in the Apollo Stakes and Chipping Norton Stakes, running very fast times in both races and strikes a heavy track, which she enjoys. She has thrived over the last three weeks and this should be another routine win. Brutal interests me in the race for second. It says something that Team Hawkes have run Brutal in successive Group 1 weight-for-age races against the older horses. He won’t beat Winx but he can beat the rest. Land Of Plenty doesn’t want it too heavy and Prompt Response is a genuine mare capable of finishing in the placings.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Winx $1.06 unchanged ($150,000 @ $1.06, $92,620 @ $1.06, $10,000 @ $1.06, $4,500 @ $1.06)
R6 (3.45pm): RANVET STAKES (2000m)
Dufficy: This has been a very good race for the Victorians and even those out of the Australian Cup. I can make a solid case for a long shot in The Taj Mahal. The stable likes this race, he’s won third-up previously and I can see him getting control up front. His only soft track run in Australia was in the Caulfield Cup, where he ran a very good fifth. Unforgotten is the danger. I liked the improvement she showed second-up behind Winx last start. She would have been top pick on a dry track but the wet track is a query. Danzdanzdance is a good Kiwi mare who loves it wet and Avilius was taking all before him before being beaten on his merits in the Australian Cup.
Thomas: I’m taking Unforgotten on trust that she will handle the rain-affected track. Her two runs back have been behind Winx but here she is out to 2000m, which is her distance range. Unforgotten only has to handle the conditions – she is out of a Galileo mare and the breed usually handle soft tracks – and she will be too sharp for this field which comprises mainly handicap stayers. Avilius must be given another chance, maybe Flemington was too firm for him last start. Danzdanzdance is a definite danger given her superior wet track record and Egg Tart is another who thrives when the going is soft or heavy.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Avilius $3.30 unchanged ($500 @ $3.30, $400 @ $3.30, $300 @ $3.30), Unforgotten $8.50-$7.50-$6 ($250 e/w @ $8.50/$2.80)
R8 (5.10pm): THE GALAXY (1100m)
Dufficy: This is a good race, I’m very confident with Graff. He is very fit and third-up out of a very strong Newmarket Handicap. He only has to take advantage of the inside draw to be very hard to beat. He ran well on a heavy track in The Everest last spring. Viridine ran an excellent race when resuming and can only improve. Pierata had too much to do from the back first-up, he’s going to strip fitter and he handles wet track. Redzel, we know, is a champion sprinter and wasn’t disgraced first-up. He likes it wet but has a bit of work to do at the handicaps.
Thomas: Redzel was forced a little wide on the turn and he only just failed to run down Ball Of Muscle in a thriller for the Challenge Stakes. The two sprinters clash again and Ball Of Muscle is 3.5kg better but I’m leaning to Redzel. He’s fitter, has a good second-up record and enjoys wet tracks. Pierata will improve, Easy Eddie is a lightweight hope and Graff is a definite chance. Great race.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Redzel $4-$4.40-$4.60 ($500 @ $4.20, $500 @ $4, $400 @ $4), Nature Strip $7-$5, Graff $6-$5.50-$5 ($300 e/w @ $6/$2.20, $300 @ $6, $4,000 @ $5.50, $1,400 @ $5.50, $860 @ $5.50), Viridine $8-$6.50 ($200 e/w @ $8/$2.70)
R9 (5.45pm): EPONA STAKES (1900m)
Dufficy: I quite like Jungle Fish. She is three from three this preparation and last time in Sydney she was beaten less than a length in the Adrian Knox Stakes last year. Mick Kent is a pattern trainer and he has won this rare twice in the last four years. This tells me he targets this race and I feel with Jungle Fish he has the right mare again. Domed went close in this race last year on a soft 7 and she sets up well here. All Too Soon is suited at 1900m on the soft and Semari has a good winning strike-rate and can’t be overlooked.
Thomas: All Too Soon is ready to win. This race suits her and I can see her getting the run of the race. Jungle Fish is right in this race, her form is impossible to fault. Girl Tuesday continues to disappoint but she has the talent to run a very good race if she finds form. Semari is another in-form mare.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: I’m A Princess $11-$12-$9.50 ($500 @ $9.50), Domed $15-$12
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