Golden Eagle: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy run the rule over every runner
Racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate the chances of each runner in the $7.5m Golden Eagle. WHO CAN WIN AND WHY?
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The inaugural running of the $7.5m Golden Eagle has attracted a star-studded field of four-year-olds, headed by Doncaster Mile winner Brutal, Epsom victor Kolding, star mare Arcadia Queen and exciting grey Classique Legend.
Racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thorougbbred Central’s Ron Dufficy discuss the chances of each runner in the big race at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.
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1: BRUTAL
Dufficy: Usually, I don’t mind speed horses from wide barriers but I’m not so sure with Brutal. He has a lot of work to do from out there. He has class and timing on his side being a Doncaster Mile winner. His two runs back have been great and he is sure to be there for a long, long way. The key to his chances is Sunlight crossing to the rail and nothing kicking up inside to keep him out wider.
Thomas: The draw is the concern but Brutal is a very good horse. He gave a glimpse of his talent when he chased home the mighty Winx in the George Ryder Stakes over this course and distance before overcoming barrier 18 to win the Doncaster Mile last autumn. He showed superior tactical speed to negate the barrier that day to settle outside the leader before forging clear in the straight. He resumed with a tough win in the Premiere Stakes and was a touch unlucky when third in the Sydney Stakes. If Brutal can get across without using too much energy early then he’s still the one to beat.
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2: CLASSIQUE LEGEND
Dufficy: This is a great draw for Classique Legend. He’s a lovely horse who relaxes so well. At 1500m I expect he will be well suited the way he conserves energy. The way he finished off in The Everest after having no luck at all suggests he will run this trip right out. Les Bridge seems excited to get him to this distance and I expect he will settle in the front half of the field.
Thomas: Classique Legend is one of the least experienced runners in the race but he’s also one of the biggest on talent. He demonstrated his ability with a dominant Group 2 Arrowfield Sprint win last autumn. Although winless in three starts this spring, each of his runs has been very good and he arguably would have been in the placings in The Everest if he got clear running. Drawn the rails barrier and should get the run of the race.
3: KOLDING
Dufficy: Kolding has a perfect set-up with a month and a trial since beating Cox Plate placegetter Te Akau Shark in the Epsom. He’s a new horse since being gelded, winning six from seven, and he has to be hard to beat with a confident Glen Boss in the saddle. From barrier four, he should settle front half of the field.
Thomas: Kolding’s form is outstanding this spring. He edged out Fierce Impact in the Bill Ritchie Handicap and that horse has since won the Group 1 Toorak. Then Kolding won his Group 1 in the Epsom, defeating Te Akau Shark, who then ran third in the Cox Plate. This horse is flying, he’s got the perfect draw and looks a top four finisher.
4: THE INEVITABLE
Dufficy: The Inevitable is an incredible little horse who made us all sit up and take notice with his very good win in the Silver Eagle. He is so adaptable, he has a terrific will-to-win which will take him a long way. He has won up to 1600m, he likes having his runs spaced and after the draw he is the one that gets his chance to beat the big four.
Thomas: The Inevitable, Tasmania’s pocket dynamo, was terrific winning the Silver Eagle, overpowering a game Fasika in the last 100m. Any horse that can win eight of his 10 starts is obviously very good and this gelding is top class. He’s unbeaten in three starts this spring and he’s going to start out of barrier three, an ideal draw. He can settle in the first six and get all the favours in the run. As you said, Ronnie, The Inevitable is fiercely determined and is going to be hard to beat.
5: GEM SONG
Dufficy: Gem Song has had a month and a trial since his solid Epsom fourth to Kolding. His best asset could be his strength. If they overdo up front, which is a chance, being a high-pressure race will suit him and his Rosehill form is excellent.
Thomas: Gem Song might be the best outsider in the race at $61. His form has been consistent without winning this spring with his third to Arcadia Queen in the Theo Marks Stakes, a second behind Mister Sea Wolf in the Shannon Stakes then a very competitive fourth in Kolding’s Epsom. He’s since trialled well at Wyong. Drawn in the middle of the field and should get a nice run with cover. Definite each way chance.
6: ZOUSAIN
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7: BEHEMOTH
Dufficy: He is a big, brute of a horse and will be better for the experience of a run right-handed in the Silver Eagle. But I think the distance of the 1500m here could be his main stumbling block.
Thomas: Behemoth missed the start and was last until the turn in the Silver Eagle before he ran on without threatening to finish eighth behind The Inevitable. He’s a dual stakes winner in Adelaide and was second in Despatch’s Group 1 Goodwood so he has ability. If he jumps cleanly he should settle closer on Saturday but he lacks the class of some of his rivals.
8: MILITARY ZONE
Dufficy: I don’t think Military Zone is out of this race. He had terrific form last preparation, winning the Hawkesbury Guineas and the Fred Best Classic and has been brought to his peak third-up by the Snowden team. I think he is a good longshot chance for sure. I’m not concerned by the barrier for him as he will be settling second half of the field.
Thomas: Military Zone does boast a powerful finishing surge and a liberal dose of class. He has been improved by two runs from a spell and his Silver Eagle fifth behind The Inevitable was a very good run. He ran out of room at about the 250m, checking his momentum, but he stretched out nicely late. Military Zone is a definite each-way chance.
9: JONKER
Dufficy: The 1500m is the problem for Jonker. He’s a speedy horse and is drawn to advantage but the facts are he has never won beyond 1100m, which probably goes against him over the last 200m. He can be a bit sticky at the start but if they want to lead, he will lead.
Thomas: Jonker wasn’t beaten all that far in the Silver Eagle then was well beaten in the Sydney Stakes. He’s rated a $201 chance because of those stamina doubts.
10: FUN FACT
Dufficy: Fun Fact is resuming off a trial win but this is a huge ask against a field like this. He did win the Grand Prix during winter but I would rather watch him for something later on.
Thomas: Fun Fact has never won at less than 1600m or first-up from a spell. He’s a handy, middle-distance horse but this looks a bridge too far.
11: BEAT LE BON
Dufficy: Nearly impossible to line up these internationals not knowing how they have settled here and what sort of form they are in. I do know that Beat Le Bon is very talented and won three straight prior to disappointing a little last start. To my eye, he is very strong and tough at the end of his races and he has good ratings overseas.
Thomas: Beat Le Bon was winning handicaps but when he stepped up to Group 2 level, his winning run was halted when fifth at Goodwood, beaten just over two lengths. He’s drawn out in 15 which makes his task even more difficult.
12: NEVER NO MORE
Dufficy: Never No More’s win in the 2000 Guineas Trial was good, he’s a Coolmore import in great hands and could be a little bit untapped. I have to respect the stable but will be very interested to see how he parades in the yard.
Thomas: I feel Never No More is the pick of the three overseas raiders. His Guineas trial win was at the expense of Madhmoon who then ran second in the English Derby. He was competitive in a Group 1 in America before a second placing at Group 2 level at Doncaster. Never No More’s form suggest he can be competitive.
13: I AM SUPERMAN
Dufficy: I Am Superman may not have the ratings of the other two but he is the one I’m most excited about. His form has been a little hot and cold but some of his wins have been huge. He has looked quite brilliant at times so if he puts his best foot forward here he could add something to this race.
Thomas: Interestingly, I Am Superman also has form around Madhmoon, finishing a last-start third to that horse at Group 3 level in Leopardstown. He’s the winner of three of his 10 starts but he has generally struggled when competing at a higher level.
14: SUNLIGHT
Dufficy: Sunlight is a fantastic mare but she is entering a new pain barrier here at 1500m. The wide draw I don’t think is too much of an issue for her as she will almost certainly go forward but I’m just wondering how she will react over this distance. I wouldn’t think trying to ride her conservatively is in her best interests as her greatest asset is her speed. All her good wins have been when she has been let run.
Thomas: Sunlight is a three-time Group 1 winner of more than $5 million – she’s a top-class mare. She’s has made her reputation as a sprinter and there is a doubt about her staying 1500m. The barrier draw hasn’t helped her chances but she does have the speed to cross this field if that’s the way they want to ride her. If she does go forward early, she could bring Brutal across with her. Sunlight is tough and genuine, she will be in this for a long way.
15: ARCADIA QUEEN
Dufficy: It’s hard not to give Arcadia Queen another chance as this has always been her Grand Final. I was expecting more from her in The Everest but I thought there were some legitimate excuses. I hope that little bit of a rev up she had early last start hasn’t fired her up. She has a beautiful barrier so if she relaxes, finds the right back to follow and gets to the outside at the right time she has a great chance of wearing the crown.
Thomas: She won six of her seven starts, including the Group 1 Kingston Town Classic and Group 2 Theo Marks Stakes before being simply run off her feet in The Everest. She still ran a very fast 1m 8.1s yet could only beat one to the line in a world-class sprint race. The step up to 1500m is the key. From barrier five she is probably going to settle in the front half of the field and be in a striking position form the turn. She is an outstanding mare and is one of the main contenders.
16: MIZZY
Dufficy: What you see is what you get with Mizzy. She puts herself into a race, maps well, tries hard and has been in rare form this spring. She ran a very good race in the Coolmore Classic earlier this year so I have no issues with her over the Rosehill 1500m.
Thomas: Mizzy has held her form right through the spring, winning the Toy Show-Sheraco-Golden Pendant treble before her solid third to The Inevitable in the Silver Eagle. Her form is excellent and she’s drawn ideally in gate six. Mizzy will be up on speed throughout and should be very competitive again.
17: FASIKA
Dufficy: Fasika is a lovely big, strong mare at her absolute peak here. Her two runs back have been very good and she also races up on the speed. She is very genuine, she won’t lie down easily – you can rely on this mare to give you a good run for your money.
Thomas: I’m a big fan of Fasika. She won her first three starts in her debut preparation in autumn then resumed with a tremendous effort to beat all but Mizzy in the Sheraco Stakes after being trapped three-deep throughout. Fasika then ran a blinder in the Silver Eagle only to be collared near the line by The Inevitable. Fasika had a month between runs before her last start effort and is open to further improvement.