Former UK commentator believes Melbourne Cup horse market might be about to pop

ONE of England's most respected racing voices claims the Melbourne Cup horse market has gone "haywire'' and owners are paying too much.

Former BBC commentator Jim McGrath says "owners will soon realise there is only one Melbourne Cup winner every year"

ONE of England's most respected racing voices claims the Melbourne Cup horse market has gone "haywire'' and warned Australian owners they are paying too much.

Recently retired Australian raised English racecaller Jim McGrath, the BBC's head caller between 1997-2012, feels the market in Europe for Melbourne Cup prospects which has exploded in the past five years is set to go "pop".

His claims follow the revelation from pioneer overseas buyer Simon O'Donnell that Cups stayers in Europe which could have been purchased for $500,000 five years ago now go for double that amount.

"I think prices could actually go down,'' McGrath said.

"The next twist will be when the owners here realise the prices in Europe are for too expensive. We are going to see a little bit of sea change in the next few years. A time when they start look to breed them here rather than import them. Everyone senses the market has gone haywire. The buyers won't be able to sustain.

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"I think owners will soon realise there is only one Melbourne Cup winner every year. It may be an enormous prize they are chasing, but what do you do with your horse after it if he cannot win over 2400m. What avenues are open to him?

"There are only five 3200m races open to him in this country yet there is a glut of horses here who can win over 3200m now.''

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McGrath admits he is as uncertain as most about the winner of a race in which 16 of the 24 runners are under $30.

"It is very confusing and what makes it more confusing is how these horses are settled in and how they have travelled,'' he said.

Here is McGrath's assessment of the European raiders:

Simon Madden onboard Simenon keeps an eye on a black crow as it takes flight. Picture: Colleen Petch

SIMENON: "He is my top pick from Europe. He has won over extreme distances. The year that Black Caviar won at Royal Ascot he won on the Tuesday over 4000m and he won on the Saturday over 4200m. Very durable horse who is well trained. He ran a great race in the Herbert Power and that showed us he can accelerate off a slow pace. He is a good all-rounder. He looks well.''

ROYAL EMPIRE: "My second pick. He is an unknown. He has only had 13 starts. He has top form. He had a very good win in England two starts ago. Godolphin have never won here. He might be the horse to crack the hoodoo.''

DANDINO: "Brilliant run in the Caulfield Cup. Flew home for second. His trainer has a great record travelling around the world. He just has to get the 3200m.''

RED CADEAUX: "He has travelled all over the world. He has almost won the race but from barrier 23 it will be tough.''

BROWN PANTHER: "Good stayer. Placed in the St Leger. Just wonder whether he has the finishing kick. That's my question mark.''

MOUNT ATHOS: "Unlucky last year. I wasn't impressed with a couple of his runs in Europe. From barrier 22 he has a big task.''

VOLEUSE DE COUERS: "She won the Irish St Leger. She needs soft ground. If the heavens open I am putting her in my trifecta, but if it's fast ground she would not make my top four.''

VEREMA: "The significance of the fact that Alain de Royer-Dupre is bringing her here should not be underestimated because he knows what it takes to win here and the Aga Khan would not be backing the venture unless he thought there would be a genuine chance she would finish in the money.''