Everest Day Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy: Royal Randwick preview
Racing editor Ray Thomas and form expert Ron Dufficy have done the hard work for punters and found the best chances on the richest day in Australian racing, highlighted by The Everest and Caulfield Cup. FULL ANALYSIS AND TIPS
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The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Racing’s form expert Ron Dufficy discuss all the big-race chances on the richest day in Australian racing that includes the $14 million The TAB Everest at Royal Randwick and the Caulfield Cup at
Caulfield on Saturday.
SUGGESTED BETS
DUFF’S BEST
HUMBOLT CURRENT (Race 2, No.3)
NEXT BEST
ARCADIA QUEEN (Race 7, No.11)
BEST VALUE
BETCHA FLYING (Race 4, No.5)
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RAY’S BEST
BRUTAL (Race 6, No.1)
NEXT BEST
HAPPY CLAPPER (Race 8, No.1)
BEST VALUE
MASTER OF ARTS (Race 9, No.10)
ROYAL RANDWICK
Track: Good 4. Rail: True.
R1 (12.30pm): VICTORY VEIN PLATE (1000m)
Dufficy: It is hard to go against Postcode. He’s a nice colt, he ran well in the Breeders’ Plate when they ran time, and with that experience he should be hard to beat. I liked the way Tommy Gold moved in his trial, James McDonald is staying with the horse and he is a big watch on raceday. Circularity ran well in the Breeders’ Plate, the blinker go on and that should sharpen him up. Murungal showed amazing improvement from one trial to the next but has to overcome the outside barrier.
Thomas: Postcode was excellent on debut in the Breeders’ Plate when a close second to Global Quest. Postcode was held up for a run from the top of the straight before getting up along the rails to be beaten a length. He should have finished much closer. Promising type and gets his chance here. Tommy Gold showed good natural speed and held on well for a narrow loss in a Rosehill barrier trial and looks a likely type. Endorse has shown ability in two trials. Circularity did enough in the Breeders’ Plate to suggest he can figure in the finish.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Postcode $1.75-$1.90 ($1,000 @ $1.90), Time Is Precious $15-$9.50-$8 ($375 e/w @ $15/$3.60, $375 e/w @ $11/$2.90, $500 @ $9)
LATEST BETTING: TAB FIXED ODDS
R2 (1.05pm): TASK RETAIL HCP (2000m)
Dufficy: I’m really keen on Humbolt Current. I know he hasn’t t won for over a year but this looks perfect him. He ran well for third in a very strong form race at Rosehill. The winner, Dr Drill has since won the Cranbourne Cup and the runner-up Rapido Chaparro, won the Port Macquarie Cup. Surely this is his day. Angel Of Heaven presents well third-up and 2000m suits better. Johnny Vinko had excuses last start when he had a slow getaway. His previous runs were good. Maid Of Ore is in great form.
Thomas: Angel Of Heaven has filled the minor placing over 1500m and 1600m in her two starts this spring but gets her chance here getting out to 2000m on the big Randwick track. Promising mare and this is a winnable race. Humbolt Current, who was bred by Queen Elizabeth II, hasn’t won in Australia yet but he is poised to breakthrough after successive placings at Rosehill. Very fit and this is a suitable race. Miss Moana is up sharply in grade but I liked her effort to win at Wyong last start and she is an emerging mare. Maid Of Ore keeps finding ways to win.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Angel Of Heaven $4.60-$3.80-$3 ($300 x $1,000 e/w @ $4.40/$1.70, $2,400 @ $3.50)
R3 (1.40pm): TAB HIGHWAY (1100m)
Dufficy: This is a competitive, above average Highway. If Burning Crown has any luck from his outside draw he can put another win on the board. He was good on the Kenso last start and if he reproduces that run he should go closer. Plonka did an amazing job to win at Port Macquarie after finding trouble. He’s a horse on the rise. Gumshoe does have terrific first-up credentials and they have found Hugh Bowman which is a positive. Zardoro will enjoy the speed up front and be charging home.
Thomas: Burning Crown was taken on in front in a fast-run race on the Kensington track last start and his effort to hold for third, beaten less than a half length was very good. The barrier draw hasn’t been kind to Burning Crown but his two runs back have been encouraging and he’s bursting to win a race. Zardoro does prefer it over further but he resumes here in what is expected to be a race with genuine tempo and he can charge into the placings at big odds. Screen Shot is a speedy type favoured by the rails barrier. Hit The Target has drawn right off the track and will need luck but he’s over the odds here.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Zardoro $26-$14, Gumshoe $11-$8 ($1,000 e/w @ $11/$3.70, $1,800 @ $8.50, $500 e/w @ $8/$2.80), The Drake $51-$34-$26, Lady Demi $26-$17-$16
R4 (2.15pm): REGINALD ALLEN QUALITY (1400m)
Dufficy: I wish there was more speed as I would be very confident with Betcha Flying. I still like her chances a lot today because I loved the way she lengthened stride late at Canterbury first-up. She looks a very strong filly with a future. Akari has the form around the right horses and is third-up off a win. Still Single has some quality on her side but has to bring her form from 1100m to 1400m but you must trust the stable. Mayaaseh should have finished closer against the older mares last start. Her two previous wins were good.
Thomas: Still Single showed promise last season including her Group 2 placing in the Sweet Embrace Stakes before returning this spring to win her maiden with an impressive comeback effort on the Kensington track. She can only be improved by that run. Akari was three-wide throughout yet knuckled down late to win her maiden impressively at Wyong. She’s another filly with obvious ability and will test Still Single. Special Snap was resuming when just edged out a handy filly last start and she is right in this contest. Avon River was strong late to score at Warwick Farm and is also a definite chance.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Akari $8-$6.50-$6 ($1,500 e/w @ $8/$2.70, $500 @ $8)
R5 (2.50pm): THE KOSCIUSZKO (1200m)
Dufficy: I have to lean with the class of Victorem. He had his two trials that have been good to wind him up for this. He is terrific first-up last preparation and is the one to beat. Noble Boy is the danger. He is another who has been kept fresh for the 1200m. He has won both times first-up and his record speaks for itself. Don’t Give A Damn is the best horse at odds. He did beat Trekking and Renewal when right last preparation and he did run second to Victorem in a Country Championship Final. He has good credentials for a horse at those odds. Handle The Truth will go forward, make his own luck and should be in the finish.
Thomas: This is a terrific race, Ronnie. Victorem and Noble Boy are the two best horses in the field, they have drawn well and should fight out the finish. Slight leaning to Victorem who is a stakes winner and has a brilliant burst of acceleration. Noble Boy is also a very classy sprinter with an imposing win strike-rate. Both have trialled brilliantly going into this race. Handle The Truth had no luck when resuming at Randwick, he’s a talented sprinter with the ability to run very fast times. Bobbing went super in a recent trial behind Everest hopefuls Redzel and In Her Time and will be charging home.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Victorem $3.60-$2.50 ($2,000 @ $3, $2,000 @ $2.80, $500 @ $2.70, $4,000 @ $2.50), Noble Boy $4.60-$4.80, Notation $9-$8-$8.50
R6 (3.25pm): SYDNEY STAKES (1200m)
Dufficy: Brutal is top pick but there is a slight concern he is staying at 1200m. He was brilliant winning the Premiere Stakes and only has to retain that sprint in his legs to win again. Champagne Cuddles is suited here as all her winning form is around 1200m. The blinker are back on and she will be finishing fast. Deprive is right there as you can’t ignore his Randwick record of five wins from five starts. Fiesta has won her past two preparations fresh and is big odds for a competitive mare.
Thomas: Brutal was outstanding first-up winning the Premiere Stakes. The Doncaster Mile winner can only be improved by the run and although I take your point about the fact, he is staying at 1200m second-up with the Golden Eagle over 1500m in two weeks but the soft barrier draw ensures he will be in a controlling position throughout. Champagne Cuddles is the danger. She has chased home Mizzy in the Sheraco Stakes and Golden Pendant and is right at her peak for this race. Easy Eddie ran well first-up under a big weight and he does have a good second-up record. Home Of The Brave was super last start in the Premiere Stakes and he might take catching if left alone in front.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Brutal $2.25-$1.85-$1.90 ($500 @ $2.25, $500 @ $2.20, $1,000 @ $2, $500 @ $2 TWICE, $1,112 @ $1.90, $500 @ $1.85 MULTIPLE TIMES), Champagne Cuddles $8.50-$9-$7.50 ($1,000 e/w @ $9/$2.60)
R7 (4.15pm): THE EVEREST (1200m)
Dufficy: Arcadia Queen has had the five weeks between her brilliant Theo Marks Stakes win, she’s been kept nice and fresh, she’s had a brilliant trial and her work was super between races. I’ve got to go with her talent. Santa Ana Lane has shown he has returned from Hong Kong, he has great second-up statistics, there is good speed up front and he’s the track record. He just needs a clear run. Pierata has drawn perfectly, he can settle closer and is so adaptable. He’s the complete racehorse now. Nature Strip will give a great sight if he can conserve his energy. I was considering tipping Yes Yes Yes before the draw. He gets in with 53kg and blinkers so he is a great chance. I’m really warming late to Sunlight after the draw. She has been trained to the minute, he did beat the favourite last start and her record speaks for itself in these big Grand Finals. Ten Sovereigns is hard to line up but I do respect his form and if he brings his A-game to town he has to be respected.
Thomas: What a race. I’m with Arcadia Queen, too. I just think from barrier three she is going to get the right run tucked in behind that speed division and with cover. She will be in a stalking position throughout and be poised to strike from the turn. Her acceleration on the corner in the Theo Marks Stakes was breathtaking, she put that race away in a few bounds. I’ve got her on top but there are so many chances. Pierata has got to be right in the finish. His form is outstanding this spring and he was dominant in The Shorts. He has the rails barrier and just needs a touch of luck getting a clear run from the turn and he will be very hard to hold out. Santa Ana Lane settles in the field but he has one of the most dynamic finishes of any horse. He will be storming home. Redzel, the dual Everest champ, is a proven big-race performer. He won the Concorde Stakes brilliantly first-up then was beaten less than a length when third to Pierata in The Shorts. Sunlight doesn’t get the recognition her outstanding race record deserves, Yes Yes Yes is a huge talent and Alizee has a great record at Randwick.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Santa Ana Lane $4.40-$4.20-$4.80-$4.40 ($1,000 @ $4.80 TWICE, $5,000 @ $4.60, $1,500 @ $4.60, $1,100 @ $4.60, $1,000 @ $4.60 TWICE, $2,000 @ $4.40, $1,500 @ $4.40 TWICE, $1,000 @ $4.40), Pierata $4.80-$6.50 ($1,000 @ $6.50, $1,000 @ $5.50, $1,000 @ $5), Redzel $9.50-$11 ($1,000 @ $10, $1,000 e/w @ $10/$3.10), Ten Sovereigns $21-$19, Alizee $13 unchanged ($1,000 e/w @ $13/$3.60), In Her Time $21-$19, Arcadia Queen $5.50-$4.20-$4.60 ($1,000 @ $5, $2,000 @ $4.80, $1,150 @ $4.80), Yes Yes Yes $11-$9-$9.50 ($500 e/w @ $11/$3.50, $2,000 @ $9.50, $1,500 @ $9.50)
R8 (4.50pm): CRAVEN PLATE (2000m)
Dufficy: Happy Clapper’s record says he is vulnerable at 2000m but some of his runs have been in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes and Cox Plate. He has been placed in this race before, his Randwick 2000m record is good and there is no Winx in this field. He just might need 2000m. I have to tip him in a year where there is no weight-for-age horse. Tally is the danger. His two runs back have been great and this is a target race for him. Life Less Ordinary has been in really good form since winter. Samadoubt is going great guns and back to the dry suits him but the main issue is Stampede won’t leave him alone.
Thomas: Happy Clapper has put in two super runs since resuming and this race sets up nicely for him. He can settle just off speed and will be strong at the finish. Stampede and Samadoubt will roll along and set a genuine tempo and Life Less Ordinary can’t be overlooked.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Happy Clapper $3.30-$3-$3.30 ($4,200 @ $3.30, $700 @ $3), Samadoubt $3.80-$3.40, Life Less Ordinary $5.50-$4.60
R9 (5.30pm): ST LEGER STAKES (2600m)
Dufficy: I really like the way Hush Writer is going. He just dropped off late in The Metropolitan after a tough on-speed run. I can see him running very well here. Gallic Chieftain ran a great race in The Metropolitan and he loves the Sydney way of going. Youngstar hasn’t been past 2000m since the Melbourne Cup last year and I think she will react here. Sir Charles Road will keep chipping away and be very competitive.
Thomas: Master Of Arts has been improving steadily with each run and although he would probably prefer some cut in the ground, he is a very good each-way chance. The set weights conditions may not be in his favour but he’s an underrated stayer and worth a gamble. Hush Writer will bowl along up near the lead and he’s as tough as they come. Gallic Chieftain and Come Play With Me fought out the finish of The Metropolitan and both rate very highly again.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Come Play With Me $4.60-$4 ($2,400 @ $4.20), Gallic Chieftain $6-$5-$4.80 ($500 @ $5)
R10 (6.10pm): THE STAR MILE (1600m)
Dufficy: I didn’t consider this horse until I did the speed map but I can envisage Penske being left alone to do his own thing in front here. He gets the opportunity to find some form again. I’ve got to respect the Epsom Handicap form of Cascadian and Junipal with both fitting in nicely here. Articus has put two very good runs together and he’s not out of this race.
Thomas: Cascadian has been unplaced in his three Australian starts but he has shaped well in each, including his fast finishing seventh in the Epsom Handicap. Back in grade here and should be very hard to beat. Dealmaker is back in winning form and down in the weights. Junipal is back in his right grade and Penske could get control up front.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Cascadian $5-$4.60, Junipal $5-$4.20
CAULFIELD
R9 (5.15pm): CAULFIELD CUP (2400m)
Dufficy: This race is testing me, not knowing a few of the runners. I like Vow And Declare. His run in the Turnbull Stakes when he was very as good when he was powerful late. Vow And Declare has Craig Williams on board, he has no weight and a better draw than most of his chances. A lot of unknowns with the internationals here but I’m getting a good push for Constantinople to say he will be in the finish. Finche looked more a Melbourne Cup horse than a Caulfield Cup in the Turnbull but the way this race could unfold he could stride forward from a wide gate then take running down. I’m forgiving Mr Quickie for the other day as his first-up run was so brilliant he could easily bounce back.
Thomas: Finche has drawn right out wide but I don’t mind that as he is such a big galloper and this gives him the galloping room he needs. He just missed in the Turnbull, he’s a strong stayer in-form and if he can handle the turning Caulfield track, he has to be in the finish. Mustajeer won the Ebor Handicap in England last start and that is very good form. Vow And Declare was finishing fast in the Turnbull and is good lightweight chance. The Chosen One produced a tough staying effort to win the Herbert Power last week and he’s good each-way value if he has any luck from his outside barrier.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Mer De Glace $8-$7.50-$8.50 ($1,000 @ $8, Mustajeer $9-$14, Finche $6-$7 ($900 @ $7, $500 @ $6 MULTIPLE TIMES), Constantinople $9-$8.50-$8 ($690 @ $9, $600 @ $9, $500 @ $9 TWICE, $506 @ $8.50, $600 @ $8, $500 @ $8), Vow And Declare $11-$9 ($2,500 @ $11, $605 @ $10), Qafila $34 unchanged ($1,000 e/w @ $34/$10), Wolfe $21-$18 ($500 e/w @ $21/$6)
SATURDAY EXTRA
SHAYNE O’CASS’S TOP PICKS
NEWCASTLE
BEST BET
INDY CAR (Race 8, No.1)
Anthony Cummings-trained/Gerry Harvey-bred descendant of Skating has been given two easy trials before her debut here. Looks to have hidden talent.
NEXT BEST
KNICKPOINT (Race 5, No.7)
Put aside potentially for some bigger races this spring after an impressive debut win at Hawkesbury. Going to peak at a mile but was good when placed in the trial to Blazing Miss.
VALUE
SKARA BRAE (Race 2, No.3)
Scone mare who is a late starter as this will be the four-year-old’s debut but came on strongly at the end of her 880m Muswellbrook trial recently.
JOCKEY TO FOLLOW
AARON BULLOCK knows every blade of grass at Newcastle and has six good rides, the best may be Pandero in the sixth race.
NARROMINE
BEST BET
SONS OF BOURKE (Race 6, No.8)
Country Championship Finalist is racing in great form this campaign and comes off a closing second at his last start to a handy horse. Run to suit.
NEXT BEST
QUEEN OF MANHATTAN (Race 2, No.7)
Grey Ryan mount resumes here off an encouraging trial. Placed on debut so goes well fresh and has drawn favourably.
WAGGA
BEST BET
WEJA (Race 1, No.11)
Trained on the track by Gary Colvin. Ideally suited up to the 1600m at the third run of the current campaign.