Race day focus: Caulfield tips, odds and race-by-race analysis
Viridine returns to his happy hunting ground at Caulfield after a failure at The Valley, while a Phillip Stokes filly is great value to snare a first-up win. BEST BETS, ANALYSIS
SuperRacing
Don't miss out on the headlines from SuperRacing. Followed categories will be added to My News.
Herald-Sun form analyst Brad Waters runs the rule over Saturday’s Group 1 CF Orr Stakes card at Caulfield. Plus, TAB’s Nick Quinn weighs in with his top picks.
Expecting the Caulfield track to be a good (4) or a soft (5) at worst for the start of Saturday’s meeting despite the prediction of up to 20mm of racing for Melbourne on Friday.
BEST BET
VIRIDINE (Race 9, No. 1)
VALUE BET
HIGHLY DISCREET (Race 5, No. 7)
EARLY QUADDIE
1, 2, 3, 5, 6/1, 3, 6, 7, 10, 11/2, 3, 7, 8/1, 5, 7, 10
$100 flexi for 20.83 per cent
BIG6
2, 3, 7, 8/1, 5, 7, 10/2, 3, 4, 6/1, 3, 4, 6/2, 5, 10/1
$100 flexi for 13 per cent
QUADZILLA WITH BRAD WATERS
LEG 1: RACE 6
The first leg is probably the hardest of the quaddie legs but getting this leg would significantly boost the likelihood of getting a dividend. OVER EXPOSURE (4) is the top pick but not a lot of confidence in him as his main advantage is his fitness edge. NONCONFORMIST (2) resumes but has a good first-up record and always races well at Caulfield. NIGHT’S WATCH (3) is never a far away in this type of race and he has some fitness from two summer runs while BEST OF DAYS (6) hasn’t won for a while but his last two runs in Sydney have been more than good enough for this.
1ST LEG: 2, 3, 4, 6
LEG 2: RACE 7
Happy to focus on the top half of the field under the set weights and penalties format of the Geoffrey Bellmaine Stakes as the higher-rated mares have a distinct advantage. BAM’S ON FIRE (4) goes well first-up and went well in her jumpouts leading up to this outing on one of her favourite tracks. SIERRA SUE (3) is an exciting mare with wins at five of eight starts, including a Group 2 success last time in. PROBABEEL (1) is a dual Group 1 winner that will be hard to beat under the weight scale despite the 1200m trip. SNAPDANCER (6) was excellent at the Gold Coast and is unbeaten at this trip so expect her to be around the mark.
2ND LEG: 1, 3, 4, 6
LEG 3: RACE 8
Fifty Stars coming out of the CF Orr Stakes reduces the number of winning chances in the $500,000 race but happy to stick with the three picks in this. CROSSHAVEN (10) is just the top pick at his first-up outing after an excellent spring campaign. He’ll go forward and will be in this for a long way as will STREETS OF AVALON (5), who looked strong winning the Australia Stakes. Simply cannot leave out SIR DRAGONET (2) from the quaddie. He’s the class horse of the field and will be charging late.
3RD LEG: 2, 5, 10
LEG 4: RACE 9
Confident of landing the last leg of the quaddie so hopefully we’re still in with a shout after three legs. VIRIDINE (1) is an excellent chance to redeem himself after a defeat at The Valley, which he clearly doesn’t enjoy, last time out. GREYWORM (2) resumes after two good Sydney trials and should show up first-up in the Rubiton Stakes. GARNER (4) didn’t win a race in the spring but wasn’t far away and should run well here. HOW WOMANTIC (7) is unbeaten first-up and is worth including here.
4TH LEG: 1, 2, 4, 7
$100 flexi for 52 per cent
SKINNY QUADDIE
1ST LEG: 2, 3, 4, 6
2ND LEG: 1, 3, 4
3RD LEG: 2, 5, 10
4TH LEG: 1
$100 flexi for 277 per cent
FOUR-PLAY: BRAD WATERS’ $50 BETTING STRATEGY
CAULFIELD
RACE 4: $25 EACH-WAY IT’SOURTIME (7) at $8.50.
RACE 5: $25 WIN LA MEXICANA (1) @ $3 & HIGHLY DISCREET (7) at $23.
RACE 7: $50 WIN BAM’S ON FIRE (4) at $9
RACE 9: $50 WIN VIRIDINE (1) at $5
THE OIL: CAULFIELD
Brad Waters’ race-by-race analysis
RACE 1: 12:40PM THE BIG SCREEN COMPANY HANDICAP (1400m)
Looking at those that will race near the speed to start the Caulfield meeting with IMPERIAL LAD (9) getting the nod after his two good efforts this time in and Teo Nugent’s claim leaving him to carry only 52.5kg. SONAREE (6) usually takes a run but has gone well in his recent jumpouts. REGARDSMAREE (7) was impressive on Australia Day and must be considered. EUGENE’S FOREST (8) wasn’t far away over 1600m last time out and should run well again. MYSTERY SHOT (1) is the query runners.
SUGGESTED BET: Imperial Lad to win
TAB MARKET MOVER: Regardsmaree $2.60 – $2.40
RACE 2: 1:15PM GROUP 2 NEDS BLUE DIAMOND PRELUDE (FILLIES) (1100m)
Both the Blue Diamond Preludes are tough for punters but I’m willing to give PICARONES (1) another chance after she was outgunned by the smart Artorius at Sandown last time out. She’s a Caulfield winner and drops 3kg for Saturday’s race. Damien Oliver sticks as well. TELLURIDE (2) was an impressive winner from a tough draw at The Valley and can continue to improve. ARCADED (5) is another Godolphin runner that should go well after her debut win. BIRD OF DUBAI (6) was solid behind Telluride at The Valley and should be thereabouts again.
SUGGESTED BET: Picarones each-way
TAB MARKET MOVER: Arcaded $3.60 – $3.30
RACE 3: 21:50PM GROUP 3 NEDS BLUE DIAMOND PRELUDE (COLTS & GELDINGS) (1100m)
The colts and geldings’ Prelude is an even contest but giving JIGSAW (7) a great chance to stay unbeaten after his debut success at Geelong last month. He was an easy winner over the subsequent Sandown eye-catcher Artorius. GENERAL BEAU (1) has done nothing wrong in his three starts and will be one of the hardest to beat. EXTREME WARRIOR (3) went well in the Blue Diamond Preview and will be fitter for that. MARINE ONE (6) was another that wasn’t far away in the Preview and should perform again on Saturday.
SUGGESTED BET: Jigsaw to win
TAB MARKET MOVER: Extreme Warrior $7 – $5.50
RACE 4: 2:25PM GROUP 2 HYLAND RACE COLOURS AUTUMN STAKES (1400m)
Difficult race to assess with some smart types resuming after spring campaigns while others have shown promise over summer to earn a shot at this $200,000 race. IT’SOURTIME (7) falls into the latter category after two strong wins in restricted races and the 1400m should be perfect for him now. POLAND (8) was narrowly beaten in the wet first-up last time in before continuing to progress. He’s capable of showing up fresh here. YOUNG WERTHER (2) ran third in the Victoria Derby but was also an impressive debut winner last time in. Watch for him late while AMISH BOY (2) is fitter for two runs back and ran on well in the Magic Millions Guineas at the Gold Coast.
SUGGESTED BET: It’sourtime each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: It’sourtime $9 – $8.50
RACE 5: 3:00PM GROUP 3 KEVIN HAYES STAKES (1200m)
The Kevin Hayes Stakes should be a good contest with a solid line-up of three-year-old fillies on show. HIGHLY DISCREET (7) is capable of showing up at odds first-up after chasing the likes of Swats That and Written Beauty in the spring. She trialled well at Geelong leading up to this and races best first-up. LA MEXICANA (1) will be the toughest to beat after her first-up win on Australia Day while PINKHAM (10) has shown plenty of talent in her maiden win at recent trial win. AIDENSFIELD (5) is reliable and should be around the mark.
SUGGESTED BET: Highly Discreet each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Pinkham $2.70 – $2.50
RACE 6: 3:35PM TS CARLYON CUP (1600m)
The Carlyon Cup is the hardest race of the Caulfield card with nearly half the field resuming and another couple coming in from interstate. OVER EXPOSURE (4) is the top pick after his three runs this time in, including a strong Flemington win, but nearly all runners have a winning chance. BEST OF DAYS (6) has been solid when ridden closer to the speed in his last couple of runs and should go well again. NONCONFORMIST (2) ran on hard when not far away first-up last time in, likes the Caulfield circuit and trialled well behind Sir Dragonet at Geelong. NIGHT’S WATCH (2) has had a couple of runs this time in and is another that went well at the trials.
SUGGESTED BET: Small win bet Over Exposure.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Nonconformist $6 – $4.80
RACE 7: 4:15PM GROUP 3 GEOFFREY BELLMAINE STAKES (1200M)
Exciting Group 3 affair with some classy mares stepping out here. Was hard to decide but going with BAM’S ON FIRE (4) as the top selection. She’s Group 1-placed, has a rock-solid first-up record and goes well at Caulfield. She’s also jumped out well leading up to this. SIERRA SUE (3) is lightly raced but a quality mare. She’s unbeaten first-up and is one of the main threats along with the dual Group 1 winner PROBABEEL (1), who isn’t badly in at the weights. SNAPDANCER (6) has fitness edge on her main rivals and went well at the Gold Coast last time out.
SUGGESTED BET: Bam’s On Fire to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Sierra Sue $4.40 – $4
RACE 8: 4:55PM GROUP 1 CF ORR STAKES (1400m)
Disappointing to see FIFTY STARS (3) ruled out of the CF Orr Stakes but his stablemate CROSSHAVEN (10) is capable of winning the race for the Hayes / Dabernig team. He has a terrific record of five wins from seven starts and doesn’t run a bad race. He’ll be on the speed and will be hard to get past. STREETS OF AVALON (5) is another on-speed runner that was impressive first-up in the Australia Stakes. Do not discount SIR DRAGONET (2) despite the Cox Plate winner being untried over 1400m. He might just be too classy for his opposition. IMAGING (6) has high-quality Sydney form and should be respected.
SUGGESTED BET: Crosshaven to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Sir Dragonet $3.60 – $2.80
RACE 9: 5:35PM GROUP 2 RUBITON STAKES (1100m)
VIRIDINE (1) might not like racing at The Valley, where he was a beaten odds-on favourite in the Australia Stakes, but he relishes the Caulfield track. He has won twice and finished second at another run at ‘The Heath’ and he’s a great chance to bounce back in the Rubiton Stakes. The set weights and penalties conditions suit him. GARNER (4) always races well in this type of event and won a Gawler trial on January 29. GREYWORM (2) is another that is favoured by the weights and he has trialled impressively. HOW WOMANTIC (7) is unbeaten first-up and boasts an impressive Caulfield record.
SUGGESTED BET: Viridine to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Viridine $6 – $5.
QUINNY'S MAILBAG: EASY WAY TO MAKE PROFIT
TAB tipping expert Nick Quinn has cast his eyes over the feature-race meetings at Caulfield and Royal Randwick and picked the best plays of the day for punters.
BEST BET
PROFITEER (Randwick, Race 5, No. 1)
VALUE BET
DON’TDREAMIT’SOVER (Morphettville, Race 7, No. 7)
LAY OF THE WEEK
OLE KIRK (Randwick, Race 7, No. 1)
LATEST BETTING: TAB FIXED ODDS
CAULFIELD
RACE 5
The money has come for Pinkham, who has been backed from $2.70 into $2.40. The Mick Price and Michael Kent Jnr-trained filly was enormous when winning on debut at Seymour, sitting five-wide throughout before cruising into the race and putting it away in the blink of an eye. This is a rise in grade but she looks exciting and should make it two from two. Early bets on Pinkham include $2000 at $2.50, $1000 at $2.70 and $1000 at $2.40.
La Mexicana shapes as the main danger, she is building a lovely racing resume with four wins and two placings from six career starts. She resumed from a spell with a good win at Sandown and Jamie Kah sticks with her. The top two in the market should fight out the finish and it shapes as a good opportunity to trim up the quaddie.
SUGGESTED BET: PINKHAM the win.
RACE 8
An open edition of the Group 1 CF Orr Stakes, with the early money coming for Sir Dragonet and Crosshaven. Sir Dragonet resumes after a glorious spring campaign. He transferred from the Aidan O’Brien stable to join the Ciaron Maher and David Eustace team and won the Cox Plate before running sixth in the Melbourne Cup behind Twighlight Payment. In an ominous warning for his rivals, he looked to have come back in terrific order when winning a Geelong trail last week. He looks set for a big autumn campaign and is a leading contender to win the All-Star Mile.
Crosshaven has been backed from $5 into $4 as he and stablemate Fifty Stars kick off their campaign. The duo will be looking to deliver Lindsay Park their first win in the Orr Stakes since Jeune in 1995. We may never see a horse have the same campaign path as Jeune. He won the 1994 Melbourne Cup, then went to Japan to finish sixth in the Japan Cup before returning to win the 1995 Group 1 Orr Stakes at Sandown over 1400m first-up. Both Crosshaven and Fifty Stars shape as leading contenders.
SUGGESTED BET: SIR DRAGONET the win.
ROYAL RANDWICK
RACE 5
The Mick Price and Michael Kent Jnr-trained Profiteer is a clear favourite for the $2 million two-year-old feature. Profiteer toppled well-backed favourite Ranveer on debut at Flemington on December 12 by 2¾-lengths in a dominant performance. He recently tuned up for the Inglis Millennium with an ultra impressive trial at Rosehill on January 27 and is clearly the one to beat. Since the draw, bets on Profiteer include $3350 at $1.90, $2000 at $1.85 and $1500 at $1.85.
The major dangers appear to come from the Ciaron Maher and David Eustace yard. Sneaky Five won on debut at Moonee Valley and showed that victory was no fluke with a subsequent win in the Golden Gift at Rosehill. Stablemate Nice For What was just pipped by the unbeaten Dosh on debut at Group 3 level at Flemington and has trimmed up from $11 into $10. She has trialled twice ahead of resuming and should run a big race.
At longer odds there has been money for Pegasi and Paper Daisy, who have both been $26 into $23. If you want a bolter at huge odds, I anticipate the first emergency Arthur Francis can bob up and is worth considering at $101.
SUGGESTED BET: PROFITEER the win.
More Coverage
Originally published as Race day focus: Caulfield tips, odds and race-by-race analysis
Vandyke reveals surprise Alligator Blood highlight
Queensland trainer David Vandyke reflects on his time with Group 1 star Alligator Blood - and the win that stands out above them all.
Mitch Cohen’s Blackbook: Five to follow from Randwick Saturday
Daily Telegraph racing expert Mitch Cohen has run the rule over all the action on Day 2 of The Championships at Royal Randwick.