Race day focus: Caulfield tips, odds and race-by-race analysis
Talented colts Aysar and Tagaloa resume this weekend and despite contrasting performances in the Caulfield Guineas, there will be little between them.
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Herald Sun racing writer Gilbert Gardiner gives his best plays for Saturday’s Caulfield meeting, plus form analyst Brad Waters race-by-race analysis and quaddie strategy, and Quinny’s Mailbag.
GIL’S GOOD THINGS
BEST BET
AYSAR (R5 No.3 - $3.30)
Hot race! Have the Caulfield Guineas runner-up just ahead of last year’s Blue Diamond winner and the progressive Godolphin colt. Won first-up previously and proven on wet ground.
NEXT BEST
MISS DIVINE EM (R1 No.1 - $5.50)
Model of consistency and flies on rain-affected tracks. Small field and apprentice claim big bonus.
VALUE BETS
KNOWLES (R6 No.11 - $10)
Yet to win in the wet but has fitness edge and the services of Glen Boss being well down in the weights. Drawn to be in the picture.
MAXIMAK (R8 No.4 - $10)
All four career wins been on wet tracks including last start heavy down in grade at Sunshine Coast. A 1400m specialist (8: 3-2-2) and unbeaten third up (2-2). Watch closely.
THE JOCKEY: MARK ZAHRA
Only the four rides on the card but two of them out of the top drawer.
ENTHAAR (R4 No.2 - $1.22), TAGALOA (R5 No.1 - $3.60), HASSTOBEGOOD (R8 No.2 - $4.40) and BLENHEIM PALACE (R9 No.2 - $13)
QUADZILLA WITH BRAD WATERS
LEG 1: RACE 6
Saturday’s Caulfield quaddie starts with a competitive 1100m scamper at Benchmark 78 level. HIDDEN LEGEND (2) is the top pick after his fast-finishing win over this course on Boxing Day and the track won’t worry him if it comes up wet. ELDERFLOWER (1) is yet to win past 1000m but is racing in terrific form while MONTENEGRO MAN (3) is usually competitive in races at this level. GINGER JONES (9) is capable of showing up first-up while KNOWLES (11) will be running on late.
1ST LEG: 1, 2, 3, 9, 11
LEG 2: RACE 7
Going with four picks in the day’s staying race, including the top pick LONG ARM (1) despite his defeat at Flemington last time out. He’ll get a soft run from barrier two and will relish the 2400m. CLASSIC WEIWEI (2) was a strong winner over this course last time out and should be thereabouts again while TARN’S PRINCE (3) goes in on the strength of his consistent form. PISSARO (10) went down narrowly on January 2 and is racing well over staying trips. YULONG CAPTAIN (4) will be fitter for his last-start third.
2ND LEG: 1, 2, 3, 4, 10
LEG 3: RACE 8
The third leg is a tricky contest, which could be made all the more difficult if the forecast rain soaks the track on Friday. HASSTOBEGOOD (2) was an impressive winner on New Year’s Day and will again be hard to hold out over the 1400m trip. JENTICO (1) led and tried hard in a decent form race on Boxing Day and is another that races well over 1400m. BARBIE’S FOX (3) could bob up at odds after a decent second-up effort last start. NEED NEW FRIENDS (7) was a fighting winner at Sandown and can show up again, especially if the rain arrives. SKY HORSE (10) has plenty of talent and should be respected fresh.
3RD LEG: 1, 2, 3, 7, 10
LEG 4: RACE 9
Reasonably confident of landing the last leg of Saturday’s Caulfield quaddie with four picks, including the top selection DAWSON DIVA (10) after her promising second-up run on January 2. DEFIBRILLATE (3) is flying and will be one of the hardest to hold out again while HANG MAN (7) won’t be far away. HEAVENLY EMPEROR (9) is untested over this trip but is racing in good form.
4TH LEG: 3, 7, 9, 10
CAULFIELD
1ST LEG: 1, 2, 3, 9, 11
2ND LEG: 1, 2, 3, 4, 10
3RD LEG: 1, 2, 3, 7, 10
4TH LEG: 3, 7, 9, 10
$100 flexi for 31.25 per cent
SKINNY QUADDIE
1ST LEG: 1, 2, 3
2ND LEG: 1
3RD LEG: 1, 2, 7, 10
4TH LEG: 3, 10
$100 flexi for 416 per cent
FOUR-PLAY: BRAD WATERS’ $50 BETTING STRATEGY
CAULFIELD
RACE 3: $25 EACH-WAY UPSWING (2) at $8 / $2.50
RACE 6: $50 WIN HIDDEN LEGEND (2) at $6.50
RACE 7: $50 WIN LONG ARM (1) at $4.20
RACE 9: $50 WIN DAWSON DIVA (10) at $10
BRAD WATERS’ RACE-BY-RACE ANALYSIS
BEST BET
LONG ARM (Race 7, No. 1)
VALUE BET
DAWSON DIVA (Race 9, No. 10)
EARLY QUADDIE
1, 2, 4, 5, 6/2, 3, 6, 8, 10, 12/1, 2/1, 2, 3, 4
$100 flexi for 41.66 per cent
BIG6
1, 2/1, 2, 3, 4/1, 2, 3, 9, 11/1, 2, 3, 4,/1, 2, 3, 7/3, 7, 9, 10
$100 flexi for 3.9 per cent
QUADDIE
Race 6: 1, 2, 3, 9, 11
Race 7: 1, 2, 3, 10
Race 8: 1, 2, 3, 7
Race 9: 3, 7, 9, 10
RACE 1: 12.55PM HANDICAP (1400m)
Tough meeting to tip early with the rain predicted for Melbourne on Friday. Who knows what the track rating will be? Patrick Payne will back up MISS DIVINE EM (1) from a race at Caulfield on Tuesday and the soft conditions will suit her. The quick back-up will help her settle to get the 1400m and she’s three from four on soft ground. SENSATIONALISATION (3) is consistent and will be hard to beat while VESPERTINE (4) fought on well over the Caulfield 1400m trip last time out. SHOJIKI (6) was solid when resuming on January 13 and will be fitter for this.
SUGGESTED BET: Miss Divine Em to win
TAB MARKET MOVER: Shojiki $5.50 – $4
RACE 2: 1.30PM HANDICAP (1600m)
THINK ‘N’ FLY (2) hit the line well when beaten less than a length over this course last time out and drops back to Benchmark 78 level for this. Blinkers go on for the first time and Damien Oliver sticks with him. DUBAI DOMINION (1) raced near the speed and fought on to score again last time and should be in this for a long way. DUBAI DOMINION (1) fought on well at Warrnambool last time out and will be in this for a long way. AUSSIE NUGGET (6) ran on hard last start and should be thereabouts again with Jamie Kah in the saddle STRATEGIC PHIL (4) is fitter for three runs back and could be ready to fire.
SUGGESTED BET: Think ‘N’ Fly to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Dubai Dominion $11 – $9
RACE 3: 2.05PM HANDICAP (1800m)
UPSWING (1) is building a handy record and was too strong at Wangaratta second-up. He’ll be fitter for this and should get every chance to win again from barrier four. WAR CRITIC (10) wasn’t far away at Sandown last week and will be running on late despite drawing wide. GREAT HOUSE (8) made ground on his Australian debut and will only be improved for that run. HUNTLY CASTLE (6) was solid again behind Tycoon Bec at Flemington and won’t mind the soft ground.
SUGGESTED BET: Upswing each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Upswing $15 – $9
RACE 4: 2.40PM GP 3 CHAIRMAN’S STAKES (1000m)
ENTHAAR (2) is all the rage in betting after her impressive Sydney and her easy Werribee trial win on January 12. She has a few gear changes but looks to be one of the smarter two-year-olds going around. INGRATIATING (1) will give Enthaar a run for her money. His two spring runs showed he has plenty of talent. SON OF MERCURY (3) was OK on debut in the spring and has had more time to develop. FROSTIN’ (4) faces a tough task on debut but has done enough in his jumpouts to say he has his share of ability.
SUGGESTED BET: None – just watch.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Ingratiating $4.60 – $4.20.
RACE 5: 3.20PM MANFRED STAKES (1200m)
DICKIN MEDAL (4) has a fitness advantage of the other main chances in the race courtesy of his two wins this time in. He was too strong here on January 2 and should be around the mark again. AYSAR (3) has shown his best form over longer trips but he’s a high-quality colt. TAGALOA (1) returns after a winless spring but this is an easier assignment that the Rupert Clarke Stakes and Caulfield Guineas. PORTLAND SKY (2) struggled in Brisbane first-up but is worth thought back over the Melbourne way of going.
SUGGESTED BET: Dickin Medal to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Tagaloa $5.50 – $3.60
RACE 6: 4PM HANDICAP (1100m)
There looks to be plenty of speed on in the first leg of the Caulfield quaddie, which should suit HIDDEN LEGEND (2), who won off a similar break at Caulfield on Boxing Day. He’ll run well irrespective of whether the track is wet or dry. KNOWLES (11) gives a start but watch for him late again while ELDERFLOWER (1) hasn’t won past 1000m but she has plenty of pace and will again give them something to chase. GINGER JONES (9) has placed three of four first-up and races well over this trip. He can show up fresh.
SUGGESTED BET: Hidden Legend to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Paperboy $13 – $10
RACE 7: 4.40PM HANDICAP (2400M)
Giving LONG ARM (1) another chance despite an unplaced run as favourite at Flemington last time. He’ll be better for that outing and the 2400m will be perfect for him at this stage. He was a winner over the trip in Ireland and has drawn a lot better this time around. CLASSIC WEIWEI (2) ran on well to get up narrowly over this course last time out and should go well again. PISSARO (10) is racing well for the Mick Kent stable and was only just beaten here at his last run. TARN’S PRINCE (3) is a consistent stayer that will again be competitive.
SUGGESTED BET: Long Arm to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Yulong Captain $6 – $4
RACE 8: 5.20PM ROBERT HUNTER HANDICAP (1400m)
HASSTOBEGOOD (2) was a dominant winner at Flemington on New Year’s Day and should run well again off a four-week break at Caulfield. JENTICO (1) led and tried hard behind NEVER AGAIN (1) on Boxing Day and races well over this trips. NEED NEW FRIENDS (7) raced on the pace and fought on to score at Sandown last time out and will also be in this for a long way, especially if the track is soft. BARBIE’S FOX (3) improved at Wangaratta second-up and could add value to the exotics.
SUGGESTED BET: Hasstobegood to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Hasstobegood $4.80 – $4.20
RACE 9: 5.55PM JOHN MOULE HANDICAP (1800m)
DAWSON DIVA (10) improved sharply when close-up over 1600m on this track second-up and she’ll be fitter again for her crack at her first Melbourne win. HEAVENLY EMPEROR (9) was well-backed and got the money last time out and he races well at Caulfield. DEFIBRILLATE (3) is racing in terrific form and will be hard to beat again despite dropping back in trip for this. HANG MAN (7) wasn’t far away at Flemington and has gone well at his two 1800m runs.
SUGGESTED BET: Dawson Diva each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Defibrillate $3 – $2.60
QUINNY’S MAILBAG
TAB form expert Nick Quinn casts his eye over the feature races at Caulfield and Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.
BEST BET
Defibrillate (Caulfield, Race 9, No. 3)
VALUE BET
Flit (Rosehill, Race 7, No. 6)
LAY OF THE WEEK
Aysar (Caulfield, Race 5, No. 3)
CAULFIELD
RACE 4
All eyes will be on emerging star filly Enthaar who dominates the market to resume from a spell with a win. She opened $1.25 and has been pushed out slightly to $1.28. Enthaar is a $3.50 favourite for the Blue Diamond and a $6 market leader for the Golden Slipper.
She caught the eye winning a Kensington trial by 4.8 lengths before producing a breathtaking debut victory in the Group 3 Gimcrack Stakes at Randwick on October 3. The $3.50 for the Blue Diamond looks extremely attractive and is worth taking before she resumes from a spell.
One punter anticipates that Enthaar will win both the Blue Diamond and Golden Slipper with a bet of $2000 at $14.70. She is the one to beat on Saturday and if you are looking for a leg of a multi, there is no reason not to entertain adding her.
Ingratiating is on the second line of betting at $4 after firming from $4.60. Any other year Ingratiating would be close to favourite for this race. He is the only runner to defeat General Beau after running away from him at Flemington on October 3 in the Maribyrnong Trail before finishing second in the Maribyrnong Plate. If there is an upset, Ingratiating looks the only danger.
SUGGESTED BET: Back ENTHAAR for the Blue Diamond at $3.50 before she resumes with a win here.
RACE 5
A small but cracking edition of the Manfred Stakes with a classy bunch of three-year-olds. Aysar opened a $2.90 favourite but has eased to $3.30. He resumes after a spring campaign that included seconds in the Group 1 Caulfield Guineas and Carbine Club Stakes. Unfortunately for favourite punters he looked the winner all race in the Carbine and wouldn’t go past stablemate Crosshaven.
The runner I am leaning to is the James Cummings-trained Dickin Medal who followed a debut win at Geelong with a stylish Caulfield victory last start. While this is a rise in grade, he looks progressive and worth sticking with.
Coming out of the same race is the rank outsider in the field, Zion, who I expect will improve and is worth including in the multiples. 2020 Blue Diamond winner Tagaloa resumes after a luckless spring campaign that was thwarted by bad barriers and bad luck in transit. He resumes after of what could be a big autumn campaign as he chases his first victory since his Blue Diamond success.
SUGGESTED BET: DICKEN MEDAL the win.
ROSEHILL
RACE 7
The support has come for Savatiano since the barrier draw, firming form $5 into $3.70 to be the new market leader at that quote. Savatiano had an excellent spring carnival, winning the P.B Lawrence Stakes and Hot Danish, and her fist-up record is irresistible with five wins from eight attempts.
Caulfield Guineas winner Ole Kirk resumes and while he looks primed for a big campaign, the first-up assignment is not his grand final or over his favourite distance and I expect him to ease in betting. Ole Kirk has the class to win and look for him to be hitting the line hard. I will be betting around him with a saver to break even should his class prevail.
The other winning chance is Savatiano’s stablemate Flit. She has never missed a place in four prior first-up attempts and is somewhat of a 1200 metre specialist having finished in the top two in six of her seven 1200 attempts.
SUGGESTED BET: SAVATIANO the win with a saver on FLIT.
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