ATT: Marmelo ticks plenty of boxes in hunt for Melbourne Cup winner
MARMELO, Red Cardinal and Tiberian — these are the three horses that have taken my eye for Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup.
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MARMELO, Red Cardinal and Tiberian — these are the three horses that have taken my eye for Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup.
I respect the favourite Almandin and concede he is very much a winning chance but he has to lump 4.5kg more than when winning last year and I just think there is value around the favourite this year (plus he was a bit flat last start).
Fancies Humidor and Johannes Vermeer have to be some query at the trip, so likewise, I have to take them on at the price.
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Red Cardinal is a proven two-miler with a turn of foot and my only concern is he hasn’t had a run in Australia first but his trainer (Andreas Wohler) knows what it takes to win a Melbourne Cup (he won with Protectionist in 2014).
Marmelo is the one that has had the run in Australia (and what a run it was in the Caulfield Cup, too) and he did beat Red Cardinal home comfortably in the Prix Kergorlay before coming out to Australia (although the race was run to suit Marmelo that day).
The Prix Kergorlay is a proven lead up to the Cup as well (Americain, Dunaden and Protectionist all came through this race before winning the Cup later that year).
I’m convinced the best roughie in the race is Tiberian. He might not have a strong turn of foot but he can stay, he can lead or take a sit and most importantly, he is a winner.
Interestingly, he beat a horse called Talismanic comfortably twice earlier this year and that horse came out and beat Marmelo over 2800m in July. He seems over the odds.
Form looks good for Kaonic
HOW good is Kaonic? Potentially pretty good if Saturday’s Carbine Club Stakes is anything to go by. Obviously he wasn’t there after he was scratched due to an elevated temperature but he would have been extremely hard to beat considering Levendi only caught Sambro right on the line. Kaonic beat Sambro by 2¼ lengths last start and that was after he was eased down at the finish. Luvaluva was also beaten comfortably by Kaonic last start and she came out and won the Wakeful Stakes at Flemington. Naturally, we will never know how Kaonic would have gone but he might just be a serious horse next autumn.
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ON that, it was great to see Luvaluva win the Wakeful Stakes for Sydney-based trainer John Sargent on Saturday. Odds-on favourite Aloisia will naturally be hard to beat in Thursday’s Oaks but Luvaluva should love the extra trip.
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THERE were several hardluck stories in the Myer Classic — one was Sydney mare Dixie Blossoms, who was crowded for room in the straight and stiff not to win. A few others were in the same boat, though.
Super debut
THAT was some debut by Neutrality at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday. His family is littered with talented horses and that effort suggests he has plenty of wins in store. He did a bit wrong when overracing early but he showed early speed and was able to quicken off that. That’s hard to do.
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TALKING of strong Sydney wins, look out for Unforgotten over a trip next autumn. She has a sharp turn of foot and was very impressive at Rosehill. Black On Gold can continue to win if he finds firm tracks as well.
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HORSES TO FOLLOW: Neutrality (stick with him), Unforgotten (Oaks next year?).
ONES TO SACK: Marsupial (too many chances).
RIDE OF THE DAY: Jay Ford (Unforgotten)
QUOTE OF THE DAY: “(This) will send her down there full of confidence and hopefully she can go down there and get the job done.” Chris Waller’s racing manager CHARLIE DUCKWORTH re Kathy O’Hara, who will ride Single Gaze in Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup.