Bledisloe Cup: Wallabies vs All Blacks - the key areas Australia must exploit for victory
No team has managed to beat the All Blacks at Eden Park since 1994 - these are the four areas the Wallabies must exploit if they are to end that record on Sunday.
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None of the statistics are flattering.
Winning at Eden Park? Mission impossible in rugby, particularly for the Wallabies.
Not only have they returned winless from the Auckland cauldron since 1986, the margins have become increasingly larger in recent years.
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New Zealand has won 43 Tests straight at the ground, a world record unlikely to be repeated by any team, anywhere.
There will be 47,000 rabid Kiwis packed into the stadium wanting to see the utter destruction of these young upstarts wearing gold jerseys.
After the 16-all draw last week in Wellington, All Blacks supporters who had previously been feeling sorry for the Wallabies now have their hatred reignited.
And the All Blacks players, bristling after a week of intense scrutiny and criticism, will seek to re-establish their status as kings of the Bledisloe Cup, a trophy they’ve held since 2003.
But as Wallabies coach Dave Rennie said: “At some stage the All Blacks will lose a game at Eden Park, why not this week?”
Indeed.
But for it to happen, Rennie’s men must dominate these key areas uncompromisingly, to record one of the greatest results in Australian rugby history.
LINEOUT
The game can be won and lost right here.
When the Wallabies held the Bledisloe from 1998 to 2002, the one area they relentlessly targeted was the All Blacks’ shaky lineout.
Finally, after years of dominance by Brodie Rettalick and Sam Whitelock at this key set-piece, Australia looks to have a significant advantage.
Rennie ruthlessly discarded hooker Folau Fainga’a from his squad after a few wobbly throws last week, and has bolstered his pack with numerous jumping options including Ned Hanigan and Liam Wright, joining Matt Philip, Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, Harry Wilson and Rob Simmons, giving new No.2 Brandon Paenga-Amosa and back-up Jordan Uelese plenty to pick from.
At the same time, the Kiwis have lost anchor Whitelock, who suffered concussion last weekend, while Rettalick is committed in Japan and unavailable.
In Whitelock’s place, the All Blacks will start rookie Tupou Vaa’i – the youngest lock to ever start for New Zealand. A red rag to some bulls.
Australia should mercilessly target their rivals’ throw – Dane Coles starts at hooker ahead of Codie Taylor this week – as this is their best chance of winning turnover possession.
Scott Barrett, who hasn’t played for months due to injury, is the back-up option off the bench and could be rusty, too.
Patrick Tuipulotu will be the key target for the Kiwis, but Rennie has stacked his lineout with poachers.
Disrupting the All Blacks lineout will significantly harm their strategy of setting attacking plays from it, and stifle the Kiwis’ threat.
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HALFBACK
If Aaron Smith dominates, the All Blacks win.
That has been the general rule over the past nine years, but Australia’s Nic White has proven quite the kryptonite for New Zealand’s chief No.9.
Last weekend White won the contest of the halfbacks with a clever mix of scrumbase running, inside passes and box kicks. It was the same last year in Perth, when White led Australia to a record 47-26 win.
Smith’s rapid-fire passes off the ground gives All Black runners time to hit holes, but also makes their attack more predictable because defenders are less concerned by his running game.
Australia was able to defend Kiwi raids efficiently in Wellington – the All Blacks managed just three linebreaks and three offloads, their lowest total against the Wallabies since the 2014 draw (12-all) in torrential Sydney rain.
If Smith’s influence can be limited again here, the Wallabies will be on the road to victory.
DEFENSIVE PRESSURE
Richie Mo’unga is a fine playmaker, but his winning record of just 56 per cent against Tier One nations is a huge concern for the All Blacks.
Last week, Mo’unga struggled under pressure from Wallabies tacklers, making two crucial errors, and that destabilised the Kiwi game plan.
Australia must continue to hound Mo’unga and shake his confidence.
The last thing the Wallabies want to give Mo’unga is time, particularly with Beauden Barrett returning at fullback and sure to be lurking wide picking holes.
The All Blacks have scored five tries or more in their past five Tests against the Wallabies at Eden Park.
If they’re kept at bay early, panic can start to creep in.
Conversely, the Wallabies are undefeated in six of the past seven matches when they’ve held the All Blacks to 20 points or fewer.
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TERRITORY
In the first match, the Wallabies enjoyed 60 per cent of territory in Wellington. This was the highest ratio they’ve had against the All Blacks since 2011.
Rennie has clearly established a plan to keep the game in New Zealand’s half, and that is aided by the clever kicking game of White from the base of the ruck, as well as James O’Connor and Matt To’omua either side of him.
Australia must continue to dictate where on the field the game is played.
If they can squeeze this new All Blacks team and pressure them into errors within kicking range, Australia can keep the scoreboard ticking over.
This will also force the All Blacks to kick more defensively from their quarter, opening up counter-attack opportunities for the Wallabies backline.
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ALL BLACKS: 15. Beauden Barrett 14. Jordie Barrett 13. Anton Lienert-Brown 12. Jack Goodhue 11. Caleb Clarke 10. Richie Mo’unga 9. Aaron Smith 8. Ardie Savea 7. Sam Cane (captain) 6. Shannon Frizell 5. Tupou Vaa’i 4. Patrick Tuipulotu 3. Ofa Tuungafasi 2. Dane Coles 1. Joe Moody.
Reserves: 16. Codie Taylor 17. Alex Hodgman 18. Nepo Laulala 19. Scott Barrett 20. Hoskins Sotutu 21. TJ Perenara 22. Rieko Ioane 23. Damian McKenzie.
WALLABIES: 15. Tom Banks 14. Filipo Daugunu 13. Hunter Paisami 12. Matt To’omua 11. Marika Koroibete 10. James O’Connor 9. Nic White 8. Harry Wilson 7. Michael Hooper (captain) 6. Ned Hanigan 5. Matt Philip 4. Lukhan Salakaia-Loto 3. Taniela Tupou 2. Brandon Paenga-Amosa 1. James Slipper.
Reserves: 16. Jordan Uelese 17. Scott Sio 18. Allan Alaalatoa 19. Rob Simmons 20. Liam Wright 21. Jake Gordon 22. Jordan Petaia 23. Reece Hodge.