History suggest Australia still has a chance of upsetting England
The Wallabies have lost their last six matches against England under Michael Cheika’s command and three of their last four World Cup matches against the old enemy - yet history suggests a miracle is still on the cards.
Rugby
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Michael Cheika reckons past matches against England are irrelevant to this weekend’s grudge World Cup quarter-final against England.
His simple explanation was: “Looking backwards is only going to give you a sore neck.”
You’d expect him to say that, but every long suffering Wallaby fan will be praying he’s got it wrong even if the raw numbers aren’t pretty.
The Wallabies have lost their last six matches against England under Cheika’s command and have lost three of their last four World Cup matches against the English.
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But Australia’s current form is so depressing that the Wallabies’ best hope of beating England is if they actually can turn back the clock because that’s the one thing that gives everyone hope.
As encouraging as last month’s win over the All Blacks was, that’s looking more and more like another false dawn with the Wallabies unable to get close to that level in their six subsequent matches against New Zealand, Samoa, Fiji, Wales, Uruguay and Georgia.
What the past offers though, is a reminder that Australian teams have invariably found a way to lift their game at the World Cup.
In the eight previous editions of the tournament, the Wallabies have made the semi-finals six times, winning the title in 1991 and 1999 and finishing runner-up in 2003 and 2015.
And they’ve succeeded in defying the odds time and time again.
No one should forget they did it four years ago, under Cheika’s watch, when they made the final.
And at the previous tournament in 2011 when they lost to Ireland in the pool stage yet managed to upset South Africa in the quarter-finals and eventually finish third.
The beat the Springboks in extra time in the 1999 semi-finals despite having lost four of their previous five clashes, including a humiliating 61-22 thrashing in Pretoria in 1997.
In 1991, the Wallabies came from behind to score a late try and beat Ireland in the quarter-finals before knocking off the All Blacks and England to win the title for the first time.
So it can be done, especially against an England team that’s got enough problems of their own.
They might be talking themselves up as only the English can but they’ve hardly set the world alight since arriving in Japan and their form over the past two seasons has been scratchy with losses to Wales, Ireland, France, Scotland and New Zealand.
“Lots of respect but I’m not a big analyser of the opposition. I’m always telling my coaches not to watch the opposition so much. They watch too much footage of the opposition,” Cheika said.
“I’m interested in our blokes, our team and our analysis so that it can help us be better.
“I’m just a believer. Call me a sucker. I believe in my lads,” Cheika said.
“I know there’s other people who won’t give us much of a chance but I believe that when you believe in yourself you are much closer to being able to create history.”