Australia simply could not sustain five Super Rugby teams, writes Iain Payten

WHETHER the ARU will shut down the right franchise is still a legitimate debate. But whether they should have cut a team? Not so much. That had to happen, writes Iain Payten.

The Force are set to be axed.

WHETHER the ARU will shut down the right franchise is still a legitimate debate.

But whether they should have cut a team?

Not so much. That had to happen.

Super Rugby will undergo a major shake-up by reverting back to a 15-team competition next year.

It will mean things get easier to understand, the competition will have more integrity and Super Rugby’s once stellar reputation will begin to heal from the self-inflicted wounds of the past two years. Not to mention its finances.

For Australia, SANZAAR-wide contraction brings the opportunity to get its decaying house in order.

It will bring an end to a seven-year period of five Super Rugby franchises that has not seen Australian rugby grow materially stronger.

The Force are set to be axed.

On available figures, there are no compelling reasons to keep five teams.

Cutting a franchise is a brutal blow to fans and staff and could alienate an entire state for some time. It many ways for many good people, it sucks.

But on the current trends seen this year, avoiding that decision - however painful - could easily put rugby nationwide on a permanent slide into a dark abyss.

On field and off, expansion hasn’t got many killer selling points.

The Rebels have a 31 per cent win record since inception and so do the Force. The closest either have got to the finals is the Force in 2014, when they were two spots shy.

Spreading Australian talent into five teams hasn’t worked. For anyone.

The depth just isn’t there. Australia’s overall win percentage in Super Rugby dropped from 54.6% with three teams to 46.5% with four teams, and then 41% with five.

The Wallabies win 10% less games now than they did with three teams.

Payto and Panda are joined by special guest Brendan Cannon, who says Australian rugby is at its lowest ebb and calls for bold leadership from the ARU

Local development is starting to happen in expansion states but both the Force and the Rebels have only produced one home-grown Wallaby each (and neither were born there). Are more coming? Probably but at such a high ROI, patience is not a luxury Australian rugby can afford.

Advocates of a keeping national footprint say you can’t shrink your way to success but growth isn’t a path to the promised land either. Successful expansion requires very deep pockets and an ability to wear losses for a long time.

Australian rugby, as a mid-tier code, hasn’t got either.

Neither of the expansion franchises have been financially self-sustaining and double-digit millions have been spent keeping them afloat.

Australian rugby’s small market size means financial decisions at the ARU are like juggling overdue bills at a kitchen table, and trying to keep the lights on at five franchises has stopped making sense, on a number of levels.

Balance sheets would have brought on the decision to cut a team but this year’s Super Rugby results confirmed it.

As a whole, Super Rugby still produces blisteringly good rugby but Aussie teams are rarely producing it these days. They have now slipped below the standard set by New Zealand and top South African teams and something had to change.

The canary in the mine of Australian rugby is very unwell. Loyal rugby fans have this year followed the neutrals and are switching off. Attendance, viewership and public interest is all nosediving.

Cutting back to four teams will - at a basic level - do two things to help Australian rugby.

One, it will free up around six million dollars a year to invest in other areas and there’s no shortage of need: community rugby, club rugby, Australia’s development pathways, women’s rugby, the under 20s program, and of course, improving high performance outcomes of the remaining Aussie teams.

And that’s the second benefit: many players, coaches and resources from the fifth franchise will be deployed at the remaining four, strengthening each and helping build depth required to compete in Super Rugby.

HOW IT WORKS NOW

Four conferences: Australia (5), New Zealand (5), South Africa 1 (3 with Japan) and South Africa 2 (3 with Argentina)

Regular season: An Australian team plays 6 x Aus, 5 x NZ and 4 x only one SA conference.

Finals: 4 x conference winners host finals. Four wildcards are next 3 highest finishers from Aus/NZ and 1 from SA/Jap/Arg.

HOW IT WORKS NEXT YEAR

Three conferences​: Australia (4 with Japan), NZ (5), South Africa (4 with Argentina)

Regular season: An Australia team plays 8 Aus/Jap, 4 x NZ and 4 x SA/Arg.

Finals: 3 x conference winners and next-best finisher host finals. Four wildcards are next four highest finishers.