Paris Olympics 2024: Experts predict Australia is set for record gold medal haul

With just six months until the Paris Olympics opening ceremony, Australia’s athletes have been buoyed by a study which has predicted a record haul of gold medals.

The Australian swim team are expected to clean up in Paris, with a record 15 gold medals predicted by experts. Picture: Getty Images

Coinciding with Friday’s six-month countdown to the opening ceremony for this year’s Paris Olympics, a new study by European data experts has forecast the Australian team will win a record number of medals.

After years of tumbling backwards down the Olympics medals table, the Aussie team hit the jackpot at Tokyo in 2021 when it scooped up 46 medals – including a record equalling 17 golds.

And any reservations Australia’s impressive count in Japan was a one-off because of the global pandemic have been put to rest by the latest head-spinning prediction.

The Australian swim team are expected to clean up in Paris, with a record 15 gold medals predicted by experts. Picture: Getty Images

Using complicated algorithms to analyse the results and rankings for competitors in each of the 329 medal events that will be contested in France, global data giant Gracenote Sports have calculated Australia will win a staggering 48 medals in Paris.

That’s the third highest total Australia has ever amassed at a single Olympics, behind only Sydney 2000 (58) and Athens 2004 (50).

Unsurprisingly, the upsurge is largely thanks to the Australian swim team, who dominated the medals at last year’s world championships.

“After the disappointing Olympics of 2012 and 2016, Australia will improve again on its 2021 performance in a year’s time with over 40 medals for the sixth time in the last eight Olympics,” Gracenote said.

“ Achieving this will rely on the success of the swimming team.

“The 20 medals forecast by Gracenote’s virtual medal table is broadly in line with the three best Olympic performances by Australia’s swimmers – 2008 (20 medals), 2021 (20) and 2000 (18).”

BMX star Logan Martin is going for back-to-back gold medals.

According to the data, Australia is on course to win 15 gold medals in the French capital, 10 in swimming, which would mark an all-time record in Australia’s best-performed Olympic sport.

Ariarne Titmus, Kaylee McKeown, Mollie O’Callaghan, Kyle Chalmers, Cam McEvoy and Zac Stubblety-Cook are all tipped to win individual golds while the Dolphins are predicted to win medals in five of the seven relays.

While predictions don‘t take into account unexpected injuries and sudden changes in form, Gracenote correctly predicted Australia would place sixth overall in Tokyo and expects a similar result in the City of Light.

The US is again expected to finish at the head of the medals table with 37 golds followed by China, a close second on 35.

The host-nation France will be the biggest improvers, more than doubling its gold medal tally to 26, while Britain and Japan (17) will vie with the Aussies for fourth place.

The number crunches are also predicting the Aussie team will win medals in 13 different sports, with rowing (five) and cycling (five) the biggest contributors apart from swimming.

The other sports tipped to generate medals are: athletics, BMX, canoeing, diving, golf, hockey, rugby sevens, sailing, skateboarding and surfing.

Canoeist Jess Fox, who won gold in Tokyo, is tipped to be one of the major stars, collecting three medals in her birthplace France, including two golds.

But the predictions can change wildly over the next months, with competitors from several other sports, including basketball, beach volleyball and equestrian, expected to challenge for places on the podium, raising hopes the team could crack the half century.

Originally published as Paris Olympics 2024: Experts predict Australia is set for record gold medal haul