James Magnussen: What went wrong for Australia’s 4x200m freestyle team

A bronze medal is an outstanding achievement, but putting a rookie as anchor was unfair. Coaches put wrong out and the data proves it, writes James Magnussen.

Emma McKeon, Madison Wilson and Ariarne Titmus during the 4x200m final. Picture: AFP

It has been a gold rush at the pool with Australian swimmers stepping up when it matters and delivering on the biggest stage.

It has been a privilege to rain praise on the swimmers and coaching staff.

On Thursday, however, the team made its first major blunder and it is important to dissect where it all went wrong.

The women’s 4x200m freestyle relay team went in as unbackable favourites.

Some betting agencies had them as short as $1.04 – unheard of.

Based on world rankings, we had the number 1, 4, 6 and 7 swimmers in the world. Normally that would translate to a comfortable gold and potentially a world record.

Leah Neale in the pool as 4x200m teammates Ariarne Titmus, Emma McKeon and Madison Wilson look on. Picture: AFP

That is what all the experts were predicting.

Australia finished with a bronze medal and the girls were left to front the media saying they were still proud of the result.

A bronze medal at an Olympic Games is an outstanding achievement for any swimmer, but for this team anything short of gold has to be looked into.

Australia used eight swimmers across the heats and final of this event, the maximum available.

The four swimmers in the heats were replaced for the finals. We are spoilt with depth in this event, so it wasn’t a surprise that we rested some swimmers.

Leah Neale, though, was only chosen for this relay. She went all the way to Tokyo as the fourth ranked 200m freestyler to only swim a final.

No tune up race or easing into the meet. Not only was it her first swim, but she was also thrown in as the anchor of the team.

The 4x200m freestyle team with their bronze medals. Picture: Alex Coppel

In that morning swim we saw Mollie O’Callaghan swim a world junior record of 1:55.11, making her almost a whole second faster than Neale’s time at the Olympic trials and considerably faster than third placegetter Maddi Wilson.

You can understand why Mollie’s parents were lost for words when informed Mollie would not be in the finals team.

“It makes no sense to us, but you have to trust the process,” her mum Toni said. “It’s really hard to explain to supporters and family why and how they pick the final four.”

If they had swum Mollie in the final and she stuck to her heat time from the previous night, the team would have jumped above the US into the silver medal, without allowing for a relay changeover.

With a relay changeover it would leave them on the gold medal podium.

This decision isn’t made by the girls. This is a coaching call.

It’s a shame, because up until today the coaching staff have nailed every relay selection and order.

The men’s 4x100m and 4x200m teams were selected to perfection and without the correct strategy were no chance of medalling.

This relay went the opposite way.

To outline why this race was a blunder for Australia, here’s how the numbers stack up.

If you combine, again without changeovers that would make them faster, Australia’s four fastest 200m freestyle swimmer’s times (Ariarne, Emma, Mollie, Maddi) it equals 7:38.62.

China’s time to win the 4x200m freestyle gold medal – 7:40.33.

We could sit here all day and discuss what order the swimmers swam in or what tactics they could have employed.

But, put simply, the wrong team took the blocks in the final.