The Run Home: Every team’s predicted finish, eight teams battling for four NRL finals spots
With seven rounds left, there’s only four spots up for grabs in the finals and eight teams poised to battle it out for them. PAMELA WHALEY analyses the run home for each team and predicts where your side will finish.
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Brisbane could turn the competition on its head with a lightning run through to the end of the season while Manly are set to crash the NRL’s top-four party.
Let the games begin.
Now that State of Origin is over, the floodgates have been flung open with teams racing the scoreboard for a finals finish.
The difference between fifth and 13th is five points with eight teams on the hunt for just four spots come September, while another blow to the Eels means there’s a different kind of race at the other end of the ladder.
The Sea Eagles, Cowboys and Raiders are all moving on up, while the Broncos could turn the competition on its head with a lightning run through to the end of the season.
After ending a 65-day losing streak against the Knights, the Broncos need to win five of their last six games to make the top eight on a streak that could cause havoc among their Queensland rivals.
How? We’ve crunched the numbers and found the teams set to buckle, those with an easy draw and the teams who might just sneak into finals after a wild ride.
MELBOURNE STORM
Current position: 1st (34 points, 14 wins, 3 losses, 3 byes, +141 points differential)
Whaley’s prediction: 1st (48pts, 21 wins, 3 losses)
Run home: Eels (w), Dragons (w), Rabbitohs (w), Panthers (w), Dolphins (w), Cowboys (w), Broncos (w)
Verdict: Lock them in for a home final, with one hand on the minor premiership already after easily disposing of the Roosters. Six straight wins and Cameron Munster ready to slot back in at five-eighth. It will take a major misfire to derail them now, given they’re runaway leaders without the likes of Munster, Ryan Papenhuyzen, Xavier Coates, Nelson Asofa-Solomona and Jahrome Hughes in patches. The Round 24 clash against Penrith will be their major hurdle.
PENRITH PANTHERS
Current position: 2nd (30 points, 12 wins, 5 losses 3 byes, +118pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 2nd (42pts, 18 wins, 6 losses)
Run home: Dragons (w), Knights (w), Eels (w), Storm (l), Raiders (w), Rabbitohs (w), Titans (w)
Verdict: May have left their minor premiership run too late, however, the return of Nathan Cleary and Penrith’s State of Origin stars has them in the box seat for a top-two finish, given the Roosters’ slip-up against the Storm.
They can’t afford a similar blip, because the Roosters have a bye remaining and a far superior points differential.
They’ll likely need to navigate the next month without Dylan Edwards, but their golden-point win over the Dolphins showcased their depth once again.
CRONULLA SHARKS
Current position: 3rd (28 points, 11 wins, 6 losses, 3 byes, +125pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 5th (34pts, 14 wins, 10 losses)
Run home: Cowboys (l), Rabbitohs (w), Titans (l), Knights (l), Dragons (w), Warriors (l), Sea Eagles (l)
Verdict: The Sharks’ hold on the top four is under threat with Manly charging. Cronulla have a good draw to finish the year, but the loss of Nicho Hynes means their games against the desperate Cowboys, Knights, Dragons and Sea Eagles will be of special importance given the tight ladder.
SYDNEY ROOSTERS
Current position: 4th (26 points, 11 wins, 7 losses, 2 byes, +209pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 3rd (40 pts, 17 wins, 7 losses)
Run home: Sea Eagles (w), Dolphins (w), bye, Eels (w), Titans (w), Raiders (w), Rabbitohs (w)
Verdict: Likely cost themselves a chance at a top-two finish, and now find themselves in a fight for the top four with the Sharks, Sea Eagles and Bulldogs. They have the advantage of a bye in round 23, while their last four games are against teams outside the top eight. Joey Manu is still to return and Jared Waerea-Hargreaves isn’t back from suspension until the Titans game. However, expect the Roosters to hit the switch on Spencer Leniu as he takes over as chief enforcer.
MANLY SEA EAGLES
Current position: 5th (25 points, 10 wins, 7 losses, 1 draw, 2 byes, +97pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 4th (37 pts, 15 wins, 8 losses, 1 draw)
Run home: Roosters (l), bye, Raiders (w), Warriors (w), Tigers (w), Bulldogs (w), Sharks (w)
Verdict: Not to jinx it, but it looks as though Luke Brooks will end his finals drought this year. His running game has kicked in, and with Daly Cherry-Evans and Tom Trbojevic firing, the Sea Eagles can beat anyone on their day. They’re a real chance of going unbeaten through to the end of the season, with the Roosters at Allianz Stadium on Saturday afternoon their biggest test on the run home.
CANTERBURY BULLDOGS
Current position: 6th (24 points, 9 wins, 8 losses, 3 byes, +63pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 6th (32 pts, 13 wins, 11 losses)
Run home: Broncos (l), Raiders (w), Dragons (w), Dolphins (w), Warriors (l), Sea Eagles (l), Cowboys (w)
Verdict: Following their two-point loss to the Cowboys, every game is like a final from now on, with six of their final seven matchups against fellow top-eight aspirants. Despite a successful season so far, they could fall out of the top eight with a loss to the resurgent Broncos at Suncorp Stadium.
On the positive side, every win will be a hammer blow to their rivals’ finals chances.
DOLPHINS
Current position: 7th (24 points, 9 wins, 8 losses, 3 byes, +46pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 9th (30 pts, 12 wins, 12 losses)
Run home: Titans (w), Roosters (l), Warriors (w), Bulldogs (l), Storm (l), Broncos (l), Knights (w)
Verdict: The golden-point defeat to Penrith could be their undoing. The Dolphins still need to face the Roosters and Storm, and the Knights on Old Boys Day in Newcastle. Given they need to win four of their last seven matches to secure a maiden finals appearance, it’s game on for Wayne Bennett’s side.
NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS
Current position: 8th (24pts, 10 wins, 8 losses, 2 byes, +3pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 8th (32 pts, 13 wins, 11 losses)
Run home: Sharks (w), Tigers (w), Broncos (l), Raiders (w), bye, Storm (l), Bulldogs (l)
Verdict: Play four of their final six games at home, and have a Round 25 bye. However, they still need three wins to stay in the top eight, and face the Sharks, Storm and Broncos in that stretch. The return bout against the Bulldogs in Round 27 could decide their fate. Their two-point win over the Bulldogs was important in the context of the ladder.
ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS
Current position: 9th (24 points, 9 wins, 8 losses, 3 byes, – 56 pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 10th (30pts, 12 wins, 12 losses)
Run home: Panthers (l), Storm (l), Bulldogs (l), Titans (w), Sharks (l), Eels (w), Raiders (w)
Verdict: The Dragons kick off a brutal fortnight against Penrith on Sunday in Wollongong before heading to Melbourne to face the Storm. They’re in with a chance to make the finals but they will need to win at least four of their last seven games for it to be a realistic opportunity, and even then it comes down to a mathematical chance given their points differential.
CANBERRA RAIDERS
Current position: 10th (22 points, 8 wins, 9 losses, 3 byes, -91pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 13th (24pts, 9 wins, 15 losses)
Run home: Rabbitohs (w), Bulldogs (l), Sea Eagles (l), Cowboys (l), Panthers (l), Roosters (l), Dragons (l)
Verdict: The return of halfback Jamal Fogarty has breathed life back into the Raiders. After four straight losses, Canberra are back in business thanks to a two-point win over the Warriors. They’re capable of turning up the heat over the next seven weeks with Fogarty back calling the shots. Crucially, they face the Cowboys and Dragons, and a win will be a four-point swing given how close the ladder is. If they can get a win against the Rabbitohs on Sunday it might just spark a run they need to push for finals.
BRISBANE BRONCOS
Current position: 11th (20 points, 8 wins, 10 losses, 2 byes, + 25dp)
Whaley’s prediction: 7th (32pts, 13 wins, 11 losses)
Run home: Bulldogs (w), Titans (w), Cowboys (w), bye, Eels (w), Dolphins (w), Storm (l)
Verdict: The return of Adam Reynolds has solved a huge problem at the Broncos, unlocking Reece Walsh and ending a 65-day losing streak that threatened to end their season. It’s not over yet, though. With a bye up their sleeve, the grand finalists need to win five of their last six games to make the top eight. Luckily they don’t leave the state now until the end of the season. They face Melbourne at Suncorp Stadium in the final round, so if they lose a game between now and then, that becomes a do-or-die blockbuster.
SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS
Current position: 12th (20 points, 7 wins, 10 losses, 3 byes, -90pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 14th (22pts, 8 wins, 16 losses)
Run home: Raiders (l), Sharks (l), Storm (l), Tigers (w), Knights (l), Panthers (l), Roosters (l)
Verdict: A big win over Wests Tigers brightened up their points differential, but losing Cameron Murray (suspension) for a fortnight and Latrell Mitchell (foot) for at least another three weeks rips some serious talent out of the side. They have no byes left with games against Penrith in Penrith, Melbourne and the Roosters capping off a brutal end to the season. Mathematically they are a chance, but realistically it’s not going to happen this year.
NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS
Current position: 13th (20 points, 8 wins, 10 losses, 2 byes, -97pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 11th (30pts, 12 wins, 12 losses)
Run home: Bye, Panthers (l), Tigers (w), Sharks (w), Rabbitohs (w), Titans (w), Dolphins (l)
Verdict: Back to back losses against Manly and Brisbane has thrown a spanner into their finals chances, and now they’ve lost Bradman Best to a hamstring injury just days after his State of Origin heroics. It will take another giant effort for the Knights to make the finals from here. They have the bye this week into Penrith at Penrith in round 22. But even if they win four of their next five games it could come down to beating the Dolphins on Old Boys Day in the last round to make the top eight, and Wayne Bennett loves nothing more than beating his former teams.
NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS
Current position: 14th (19 points, 7 wins, 10 losses, 1 draw, 2 byes, -34pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 12th (29 pts, 11 wins, 12 losses, 1 draw)
Run home: Tigers (w), Eels (w), Dolphins (l), Sea Eagles (l), Bulldogs (w), Sharks (w), bye
Verdict: A two-point loss to the Raiders when the game was there for the taking is essentially the nail in the coffin of the Warriors’ season. They have a decent draw to finish the year and entirely winnable games, but with injuries mounting it will take a special run of form to make the top eight. They play their next two games against the Tigers and Eels at home and if they’re about to go on a winning streak, it needs to happen yesterday.
GOLD COAST TITANS
Current position: 15th (18 points, 6 wins, 11 losses, 3 byes, -89 pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 15th (18pts, 6 wins, 18 losses)
Run home: Dolphins (l), Broncos (l), Sharks (l), Dragons (l), Roosters (l), Knights (l), Panthers (l)
Verdict: Des Hasler’s return to Manly didn’t go as planned, and after showing big signs of improvement this year, the finals are an impossible dream. They still have the next seven weeks to give fans hope for next year though, but face four top eight teams, including Penrith, and the Broncos, Dragons and Knights who are all on the hunt for a miracle finish.
PARRAMATTA EELS
Current position: 16th (14 points, 4 wins, 13 losses, 3 byes, -153pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 16th (16pts, 5 wins, 19 losses)
Run home: Storm (l), Warriors (l), Panthers (l), Roosters (l), Broncos (l), Dragons (l), Tigers (w)
Verdict: It’s been a miserable old season for the Eels, who have a huge chunk of their salary cap on the sidelines. NSW Origin halfback Mitch Moses is now out for the rest of the year too after suffering a biceps injury in the historic decider, which leaves the Eels battling to avoid the wooden spoon. It’s a horrendous run home too, facing three of the top four teams, as well as Dragons and incoming recruit Zac Lomax in round 26 before the Tigers in the last round of the season. Sadly, that could determine who finishes last.
WESTS TIGERS
Current position: 17th (12 points, 4 wins, 14 losses, 2 byes, -217 pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 17th (14pts, 4 wins, 20 losses)
Run home: Warriors (l), Cowboys (l), Knights (l), Rabbitohs (l), Sea Eagles (l), bye, Eels (l)
Verdict: Tigers fans have been white-knuckling this season as discipline and commitment has flown out the window.
They have such a talented crop of juniors coming through and there are green shoots for 2025, but overall it’s been another tough season for fans who have endured two back-to-back wooden spoons and are battling to avoid another.
A terrible points differential could be the killer in a round 27 square off with Parramatta for the honour.
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