The Crawley Files: Broncos, Titans, Cowboys’ bogey team and bunnies revealed

If history is anything to go by, season 2022 has the potential to be a dream start for Broncos. PAUL CRAWLEY reveals every club’s bogey and bunny teams and how it impacts their start to the year.

History says the Broncos have a dream draw. Picture: Grant Trouville/NRL Photos

Every team has a side they just hate playing. For South Sydney, it’s Melbourne, who the Rabbitohs have only beaten once in the past five years, and never at the Storm’s home ground going all the way back to 1999.

To put it further in perspective, before the Bunnies last win against the Storm in 2018, the previous was 2013. Essentially once in the last decade.

Which is the reason for this column.

Stream every game of every round of the 2022 NRL Telstra Premiership Season Live & Ad-Break Free In Play on Kayo. New to Kayo? Try 14-Days Free Now >

Ahead of Thursday night’s blockbuster to mark Craig Bellamy’s 500th NRL match milestone, we have crunched the numbers for all 16 clubs. Breaking down their records against every team since 2017, and identifying all the bogey and bunny sides.

We have also calculated how each team has fared against top four, top eight and bottom eight opposition last season.

Can the Broncos capitalise with history on their side? Picture: Bradley Kanaris/Getty

It shows some startling statistics across the board.

Like the fact eight clubs have not beaten another team in the past five years, and of those five are against Melbourne, making the Storm the NRL’s ultimate bogey team.

As for the Rabbitohs, it highlights why Latrell Mitchell’s return could not come at a better time for Jason Demetriou who is about to get his first real taste of the pressure that goes with the top job in what is shaping up to be an extremely challenging first month.

Here are the stats for every team.

If history is anything to go by, 2022 has the potential to be a dream start for Kevvie Walters after a huge round-one upset.

Overall, the Broncos’ best record over the past five seasons is a 77.8 winning percentage against the Sharks. But that is followed by the Bulldogs (62.5%), who they play this Sunday.

After that, it’s the Cowboys, who they have a 60% record against and they take on in round three.

The reality check is the Broncos had a rotten record against top teams last year with no wins against top four opposition (although they broke that drought against the Bunnies) and only three of 15 against top eight teams. It’s also no great surprise the Storm are their bogey team.

*****

Played finals last year despite not beating a top four side and having one win against a rival top eight team in 12 games (that was the Knights in round five).

Their best record in the last five years has been against the Bulldogs and Tigers (winning four of six) and their worst against the Roosters and Rabbitohs. They also have only one win in that period against each of the Storm, Panthers and Eels, further highlighting how they really have struggled against quality opponents.

Although, as was the case last weekend against the Eels, they also went down in some nailbiters last year, losing by a point to the Roosters and Knights in the regular season followed by the heartbreaking 25-24 defeat to the Roosters in week one of the finals.

*****

It’s incredible how this club has fallen off a cliff in recent years. From the heights of their historic 2015 premiership to that amazing run into the grand final in 2017. Yet last year they didn’t score a single win against top four opposition and the only win against a top eight rival was over the Knights (without Kalyn Ponga).

Over the five-year period they haven’t beaten the Storm in nine encounters, while they have only one win against Manly in six games.

At the other end of the scale, they boast a 70 per cent record against the Titans, while they have a 50 per cent or better record against Canterbury (57.1%), Newcastle (57.1%), Canberra (50%) and Parramatta (50%).

*****

As impressive as the Raiders were against the Sharks to start the season, the next six weeks is a lottery. This Saturday it’s the Cowboys (who the Raiders only have a 50% recent winning record against), followed by the Titans (75%), Sea Eagles (22.2%), Storm (27.3%), Cowboys again and Panthers (25%).

What will concern Raiders fans is they only won one of six against top four teams (16.7%) last year and three from 14 against top eight teams (21.4%). They had a 70 per cent record against bottom eight teams.

Over the past five years they have a less than 30 per cent winning record against four teams all up, the Sea Eagles (22.2%), Panthers (25%), Storm (27.3%) and Knights (28.6%). They have their most success against the Tigers (85.7%) followed by the Bulldogs (83.3%).

*****

A lot has been made about Canterbury’s tough start to the season for good reason. They play the Broncos on Sunday, who they have a 37.5 per cent winning record against over the past five years, followed by the Sea Eagles (12.5%), Panthers (25%), Storm (0%) and Rabbitohs (30%).

In fact, they didn’t have a single win against top eight opposition last year in 14 games. Not that they had a great record against any team over this period, with a 50 per cent or better record against only two opponents — Knights (62.5%) and Dragons (50%).

They have two teams they haven’t beaten in the Roosters and Storm, while they have one win against both the Sea Eagles and Raiders during this period.

*****

The challenge for Craig Fitzgibbon is staring right at him with these stats relating to the Sharks’ record against the better teams last year. They had one win against a top four opponent (which was the Panthers during Origin), while the only other win against a top eight opponent was over the Titans.

Meanwhile, their worst winning percentage is against the Roosters, with one win in seven games (14.3%) but they also only have one win in six games against the Sea Eagles. Interestingly, the Broncos are the other team they have really struggled against, with only two wins in nine games and their record against the Raiders isn’t much better (3 wins from 11).

Their best is against the Tigers (83.3%) followed by the Cowboys (81.8%).

*****

No use beating around the bush here. Just look at the Sea Eagles record last year against top four rivals, no wins in six games. And while they lapped the Roosters 42-6 in week two of the playoffs, to get a better gauge on what they are up against this round, go back to when the Chooks had all the big guns firing in round one when they smashed Manly 46-4 when Turbo was sidelined.

Meanwhile, over the five-year period they have only beaten both the Panthers and Storm in two of 10 games, while they also only have two wins against the Rabbitohs (in 9 games) and the Dragons (in 8 games).

Their best record is against the Bulldogs (87.5%), who they play in round three, while they also have a terrific strike rate against both the Sharks and Cowboys (83.3%).

*****

What Craig Bellamy has done down in Melbourne since he arrived in 2003 is truly remarkable. But just looking back over the past five years, where the Storm have gone through a tremendous changing of the guard with Billy Slater, Cooper Cronk and Cameron Smith all departing, sums it up perfectly. Because they just continue to set the benchmark with a 50 per cent or better winning record against every single opponent.

That includes a 100 per cent strike rate against the Broncos, Bulldogs, Knights, Cowboys and Warriors. In that time, both Souths and the Titans have only beaten them once.

Meanwhile, the Panthers are the only team to have held their own against the Storm, while the Eels are next best with Melbourne holding a 5/4 advantage.

*****

Make any excuse you want for the Roosters’ poor showing last weekend but I reckon every Newcastle fan is entitled to see that as a breakthrough moment for a club that has been down on its luck pretty much since Joey Johns retired.

Even last year when they made the finals they still only had one win against a top four opponent (Manly) and two against top eight teams. While in the past five years they haven’t beaten the Storm, the Panthers once, and the Roosters and Rabbitohs twice.

Games over next month against the Tigers, Panthers, Sharks and Sea Eagles will put a better perspective on whether they are a genuine contenders. Interestingly, their record against Sunday’s opponent the Tigers isn’t great with just three wins from nine.

*****

Big expectations on Parramatta this year for obvious reasons. From a team that built up a collection of wooden spoons last decade they are now a genuine contender, although their record last year against the top eight teams still wasn’t flash.

They had only two wins out of nine against top four teams and six out of 14 against top eight teams, while dominating the bottom half of the ladder. They have a 90 per cent record against the Tigers in recent years, and it’s still 80 per cent or above against the Titans (85.7%), Broncos (80%) and Bulldogs (80%).

But the Roosters are their bogey team, while they have struggled against the Panthers (30%), Rabbitohs (33.3%) and Raiders (37.5%).

*****

Surprisingly, the Panthers worst record is against the Sharks followed by the Broncos (42.9%). And they are the only teams Penrith doesn’t have a 50 per cent or better strike rate against. Against Melbourne it’s split straight down the middle in eight games (50%), while every other team they have the wood on.

For instance, they have won five of eight against the Roosters since 2017, seven of 11 against the Rabbitohs and a whopping eight of 10 against Manly (80%).

Maybe that shouldn’t be such a shock given how they touched them up in round one without Nathan Cleary. But it’s still a record that puts the Sea Eagles just behind the Titans as the Panthers’ bunny team, with the Warriors equal second.

*****

In the wake of a huge opening round upset, last year’s grand finalists now confront a period that could really do some major damage to their season if they don’t improve dramatically.

It kicks off against their hoodoo gurus in Melbourne where the Rabbitohs have a shocking record. Then they take on the Roosters (who they have a 50% record against), followed by the Panthers (where it dips to 36.4%).

Their best record is against the Titans followed by the Dragons (88.9%) and Warriors (85.7%).

If the Rabbitohs don’t turn things around against an injury-ravaged Storm, imagine the pressure levels next week when they take on their arch rivals in their first meeting since Latrell Mitchell smashed Joey Manu’s cheekbone.

*****

Have only won one of nine games in five years against the Roosters and Rabbitohs, and two wins against each of the Raiders, Panthers and Storm in this period. Still, that’s not as bad as you might imagine for a team that hasn’t played finals footy since 2018.

Their best record is against the Broncos (83.3%) followed by the Sea Eagles (75%). They also have a better than average record against the Titans (62.5%), Knights (62.5%), Cowboys (57.1%) and Bulldogs (50%).

Last year they only had the one win against a top four team and three of 11 against top eight sides. But given there has been a major overhaul of the roster, Friday night’s clash against the premiers will tell us more about where they are right now.

*****

Have a 100 per cent strike rate against the Bulldogs and Titans and a 50 per cent or better record against every team other than the Storm (36.4%) and Panthers (37.5%).

It’s worth mentioning above the Storm and Panthers, the Roosters next worst record is against the Sea Eagles and Rabbitohs (50%) who they play in round two and round three. In both cases they have split the victories six-all against the Rabbitohs and four-all versus the Sea Eagles.

Of course, the Roosters’ record last year against the top four teams wasn’t great but it’s understandable given their injuries, while they won six of 14 against top eight teams and 11 of 12 against the bottom sides.

*****

Yet another club that the Storm have completely dominated in recent times, although the Warriors at least got a trial win over Melbourne this year which I guess is better than nothing.

The Warriors’ best record is against the Bulldogs, Titans and Tigers (66.7%), while the only other teams they have a better than 50 per cent record against is the Cowboys (57.1%) and Dragons (55.6%).

They didn’t get a win last year against top four teams and only one in 12 games against top eight opposition.

In fairness, no club has had a more difficult time during Covid but now they are based at Redcliffe hopefully it gets easier this year.

*****

Now here’s a reason for Tigers fans to get excited ahead of Sunday’s match against the Knights. While the Tigers have their best record against the Cowboys (75%), next on the list is Newcastle (66.7%).

The Tigers also have a winning record in recent years against the Dragons (62.5), Broncos (60), Bulldogs and Manly (55.6). Now for the flip side.

Their worst record is against the Eels with only one win in their last 10 games, but they also only have one win against the Raiders in eight games and one against the Sharks in seven.

They are two from nine against the Panthers, two from seven against the Storm, and two from six against the Warriors and Titans.

Of course they had that win over the Panthers during Origin last year, and didn’t Tigers fans have fun rubbing Ivan’s nose in that.

Bellamy magic brings out best in Hughes

In the week Craig Bellamy celebrates his 500th NRL game as coach, there is no greater testament to his rugby league genius than Jahrome Hughes.

The player the Melbourne Storm found in the NRL recycle bin and Bellamy manufactured into a superstar playmaker. From offcuts not even Gold Coast or North Queensland could see value in.

Hughes started out at the Titans mostly playing fullback and the centres in under 20s. And while he did get one NRL game in 2013, eventually he was shown the door.

Then when no one wanted him, he basically got thrown a lifeline at the Cowboys where he started another NRL game, again at fullback, in 2016.

Even when he went to the Storm it was Brodie Croft, Scott Drinkwater and Ryley Jacks fighting it out initially to be Cooper Cronk’s replacement.

Jahrome Hughes has found his best form at the Storm under the guidance of Craig Bellamy. Digital art: Boo Bailey

Hughes debuted for Melbourne in 2017 at fullback, but it wasn’t really until the end of 2019 that he made a permanent shift into the halves.

But in just two years he has gone from a novice to the one halfback in the game who could seriously challenge Nathan Cleary for the mantle as the game’s best No.7.

And while most would probably still give the nod to Cleary, Bellamy made it clear after Hughes’ man of the match effort against the Tigers in round one who he’d take.

“I can’t remember why we actually moved him to halfback at the time,” Bellamy recalled. “But I’m glad we did. I wouldn’t swap him for anyone in the game at the moment.”

Though if it wasn’t for Bellamy’s genius, would we be even talking about Jahrome Hughes right now?

Originally published as The Crawley Files: Broncos, Titans, Cowboys’ bogey team and bunnies revealed