Campo’s Corner: Which NRL big dog will rule the yard come October
In this week’s Campo’s Corner the premiership race gets reassessed, golden point is defended and the two-century countdown for John Asiata to make history begins.
The madness of Origin is behind us.
We laughed, we cried, we almost tipped the slate in the decider, we made bold statements about Mitchell Pearce — it was a wonderful time, a great series and maybe the real Origin victory was the friends we made along the way.
But that’s all done with now and the NRL season proper is back on with an eight-week sprint before finals footy takes over mine, yours and everyone else’s life. Fourteen of 16 teams can still make the finals and just three wins separate fifth and fourteenth.
The NRL season can fade into the background during Origin time — it’s hard to care about split round battles between two depleted teams — so to bring things back into focus and make sense of the impending crush for playoff spots let’s take stock of all the teams still dreaming of drinking from the keg of glory in the first weekend of October.
TIER 1 – THE BIG DOGS
You all know who’s here – Melbourne, South Sydney and the Roosters. The Storm have lost two games by a combined three points and are six points clear at the top of the ladder – the minor premiership is all but heading south again and the road to glory leads directly through the purple machines.
They still might have improvement in them (I cannot help but be intrigued by moving Jahrome Hughes to halfback and starting Ryan Papenhuyzen at fullback) but they are also fully formed and capable of winning it all as they are.
Do not underestimate the importance of their win over the Roosters in Adelaide – the premiers were not at their best but Melbourne needed the confidence that came with beating them given the grand final loss and the epic rematch in Melbourne.
The Rabbitohs have been staggering for the last few weeks as Origin and injuries tore them down but last week’s win over Manly was important, for both their spot on the ladder and their own confidence. Premierships aren’t won in June but they can be lost and four straight losses isn’t good for business.
In adding James Roberts and getting Braidon Burns back from injury Souths have a better team now than they did compared to when the season began and if they can get Sam Burgess back on the field and Cody Walker back to his best (there were some good signs on the weekend) then title 22 could be on the way to Redfern.
What could the Roosters do to lose their status as premiership favourites?
They’ve won two of their last seven, including defeats to the struggling Broncos and Cowboys, Luke Keary is another concussion away from missing a lot of football, they’re on the brink of slipping outside the top four and every week seems to bring on a new injury, suspension or obstacle. But what Trent Robinson perfected last year was the timing of the run – the Roosters were always a good side last year but they took it to the next level in the final stages of the season and therein lay their power.
In 2014, 2015 and 2017 the Roosters peaked in the regular season and fell short. Last year they peaked in the finals and won it all. The latter feels more likely than the former but they still won’t want to leave themselves with too much to do, especially with Canberra lurking on the horizon.
Separating the three is difficult — Melbourne are the most ready, the Roosters have the highest ceiling and South Sydney have the greatest scope to improve. All three can win the premiership.
TIER 1.5 – THE GROWING DOGS
This tier exists for Canberra and Canberra alone, who haven’t been lower than fifth all season and haven’t lost a game by more than 12 points. Even so, you’d be hard-pressed to find many who rank them the equal of the top tier, unless they were looking through lime-green eyes and had a propensity for breaking out into Viking claps at a moment’s notice.
Beating enough bad teams is enough to make the finals but Canberra are now at the point where just making it isn’t enough – their big win over the Dragons had the look of a top side putting the hurt on a bad one, but they won’t convert the unbelievers until they claim the scalp of one of the teams ahead of them.
The Raiders weren’t at full-strength in their narrow losses to the Rabbitohs and Roosters earlier this year, but neither were their opponents on those days - in particular, John Bateman was missing for both matches.
In any case, if they win the games they’re supposed to win between now and Round 21 and 22, when they take on the Roosters and Storm back to back, we could have some serious blockbusters on our hands as Canberra – the new Canberra, built on hunger and desire and a love of the battle – put themselves to the ultimate test. I don’t know if they can win it all but I give them the best chance of any team apart from the big three.
TIER 3 – THE HUNGRY DOGS
Manly are at the head of this pack currently, just in front of Parramatta and Newcastle with Penrith and Cronulla a little further back. The Sea Eagles continue to impress me, even in defeat against the Rabbitohs. They still rely so heavily on their best players that losing one is enough to make things difficult but they never go down quietly and have yet to be fully loaded for any real stretch this season. Everyone knows how good their stars are but Manase Fainu is one of the finds of the year, as is Cade Cust, and Curtis Sironen is in fantastic form.
The transformation under Des Hasler has been quite remarkable and while they probably won’t be a true premiership contender until next season right now they are being all they can be and that’s an admirable thing.
Parramatta have surged in recent weeks but their win over an out of sorts Canberra the other week is their only victory over a team above them on the ladder.
The return of Dylan Brown has had a real impact and with two games against Manly and one against Newcastle in the run home the Eels hold their destiny in their own hands.
They and Manly are in the best place to take the next step but Parramatta might top out as the competition’s line of demarcation – if you’re better than them you’re a premiership contender, if you’re aren’t then you’re not.
The Knights have fast become a team of streaks but their loss to Canterbury was troubling. Even with Kalyn Ponga injured, any team with real top four ambitions should find a way to beat the Bulldogs, who are brave and true but lack firepower.
The match was there to be won for Newcastle and they just couldn’t get it done – the next month now looks very tricky, where they take on the Roosters, Tigers, Sea Eagles and Eels with only one of those games coming at home. Those results will forge their season, for better or for worse.
As Cronulla collapse under the weight of their own injuries Penrith are the beneficiaries, pulling off six straight wins to go from dead last to the brink of the eight.
Much of that has coincided with James Maloney finding his best club form as a Panther (interestingly, it came without Nathan Cleary for the most part) as well as Dylan Edwards shaking off his early season horrors and Ivan Cleary finally settling on his preferred combinations across the park.
Lack of points could be a problem down the stretch but at least the Panthers have found something.
Manly and Parramatta have it in them to make the preliminary finals and Newcastle might get there but I don’t think they can win it all.
TIER 4 THE UNDERDOGS
Here we find talented but flawed teams who need a fair bit of stuff to go right to make the finals – I’m talking about the Tigers, Cowboys, Warriors, Broncos and Dragons.
Each of these teams have obvious strengths and weaknesses, except for the Dragons who are mired in a season from hell in which everything that could have gone wrong has gone wrong with some kind of horrible twist thrown in for good measure. They could have dealt with losing Jack de Belin, they could have dealt with Gareth Widdop’s injury, they could have dealt with the little ailments that have strung them at every turn but they could not deal with all of them at the same time. Paul McGregor’s talk of still being a premiership contender is defiant but misplaced - it’s hard to see anything unfolding but a year outside the finals.
The Tigers are tough and difficult to grind down but lack refinement and explosive capabilities, the Cowboys are in a similar bind and can’t seem to put the resources they do have to best use, the Warriors alternate between too wild and not wild enough and the Broncos have some of the best young players in the game but carry too much deadweight.
North Queensland have the highest ceiling of any of these teams right now but it’s difficult to see any of them troubling anyone in the top eight — just making it would be a win at this point.
GOLDEN POINT RULES
As extra-time kicked off between the Broncos and Warriors the endless debate kicked up again. The merits of golden point is brought up again and again whenever a game is deadlocked at the fulltime siren and sure enough, that train is never late.
The merits of both sides are well-trodden at this point, 16 years after the concept was introduced. I, for one, am a massive fan. The way the game shrinks down so that every single run, tackle and potential error matters heightens the tension like nothing else in the sport and almost instantly an otherwise unremarkable regular-season match can be elevated into something that feels much greater.
When golden point is good it’s a death or glory chess match decided by some of the best talents in the game. When it’s not as good it’s a lunatic action movie with bad actors and inexplicable choices that are compelling in their own way. Football doesn’t need to be perfect to be compelling or entertaining and even when matches degenerate into hopeless field goal shootouts (as the Broncos-Warriors game did) there’s a strange and compelling power to it, as the boundaries of footballing reality bend before our eyes.
Some like to ask “what’s wrong with a draw” and the answer is nothing – just like there’s nothing wrong with vanilla ice cream, original flavoured chips or celery. There’s no accounting for taste and if you dream of crunching down on a stick of celery then good luck to you, but there’s a better way and if people can’t see that after 16 years then maybe they never will.
SCORING TRIES IS IMPORTANT
And now, to celebrate Jarrod Croker breaking Canberra’s all-time tryscoring record, here’s some leading tryscorers from other clubs and some things I know about them.
Nick Zisti
The Hunter Mariners are an endless source of fascination for me given their short-existence and the pure and true hatred every Novocastrian bore in their hearts for Super League’s attempt to get a foothold in the Hunter. Zisti crossed for nine tries in 17 games for the Mariners in their sole season in 1997, or 16 in 24 if you count the World Club Challenge which I insist you must. Let’s all get Mariners’ retro jerseys, go up to Newcastle and get belted outside a Henny Penny.
Ted Bellamy
Another one-season wonder was Cumberland, who possibly have the saddest history of any first grade club. They played in 1908, only joining the competition in the second round and only scored three tries in their eight games before folding at the end of the season. But Edwin Bellamy, better known as Ted, grabbed two of them. A hooker, backrower or prop, Bellamy scored two tries and kicked four goals in five games for Cumberland and was one of three players to score points for the battling club. In 1909 Bellamy joined Souths, played one game and vanished from first grade forever.
Ray Preston
Eastern Suburbs Immortal Dave Brown holds the all-time record for most tries in a season with 38, set in 1935. A lot of people know that. Not as many people know that Ray Preston, who isn’t an Immortal and never played for New South Wales or Australia, is in second place courtesy of the 34 tries he scored for Newtown in 1954. With 107 tries in 115 matches, Preston finished as the Bluebags’ all-time leading tryscorer and the 51 combined tries he and Kevin Considine scored in 1954 remains a premiership record. The Newtown team of 1954 was one of the best in the club’s history, winning the minor premiership and losing just three games all season – but all three were against Souths, including the grand final.
THE GOLDEN HOMBRE
Is there anything more thrilling than when a big man gets into the clear and attempts an ill-advised dummy, or perhaps a chip kick?
Is there anything greater than when a large lad decides the time has come for him to show the world the ball skills he knows lurk deep within?
Is there anything that lifts the spirit more than a hefty fellow crashing across the stripe for his second NRL try in his 179th first grade match?
I say no, and to honour these big fellas each and every week of the year, which many have dubbed #BigManSeason, we hand out The Golden Hombre, named after Todd Payten, the biggest halfback God ever created.
Not even a super over could split these two which, it’s time for our first ever joint Golden Hombre. Adam Blair has scored 14 tries in his 303 game NRL career and none have been more spectacular than the galloping, 20-metre effort he pulled off on the weekend. Is it time for Adam Blair to reinvent himself, transforming from the weirdest player in the NRL to some kind of tryscoring machine? Impossible to say.
It’s been a tough few weeks for the ball-playing gentlemen of the John Asiata fan club. Our boy has been battling away in the halves for North Queensland and had a fair dinkum shocker in his debut for Tonga. But keep the faith and ye shall be rewarded, and so it was that Asiata scored the equalising try against the Roosters on Sunday, putting on some footwork near the line and burrowing over to score his third try of the season – that’s an increase of 200% on his career total before this season and means, at his current pace, he’ll have to play a mere 5777 matches to match Ken Irvine’s all-time record. Assuming Asiata plays 25 games a season that means we’ve only got to wait 231 years for him to claim his birthright.
A GUY YOU SHOULD KNOW
Brent Naden
Naden is one of those players who had big wraps coming through the juniors but seemed like he’d never really kick on. After captaining Penrith to an Under 20s title in 2015 he joined Canberra but couldn’t crack first grade, nor could he do so at Newcastle.
He only rejoined Penrith midway through the season and got a game because everybody was injured but he’s made the most of it – a rangy and athletic centre who hasn’t looked out of place once in the top grade, Naden has re-signed with the Panthers on a new deal and is a testament to the benefits of perseverance.
His length of the field try against the Warriors a few weeks ago is one of my favourites of the season and his 18 run, 234-metre effort against the Titans last week was his best game yet.
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