Campo’s Corner: Where the 2019 NRL grand final will be won and lost
We’ve laughed, we’ve dried, we’ve dyed just about everything green - now it’s time to lock in on where in the 2019 grand final will be won and lost in the final Campo’s Corner of the week.
Raiders
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MONDAY: The last men standing
TUESDAY: Green dreams can come true
WEDNESDAY: 34 thoughts for 34 grand final players
THURSDAY: Campo’s Corner team of the year
We’re only a few days away now. The yarns have been told, the Dally M has been won, the things have been dyed green, the best day of the year is almost upon us.
Such is the excitement of grand final week it’s easy to forget there’s a game to be played, 80 minutes won and lost which will decide the 2019 season and see history made – either Canberra win their first title in 25 years or the Roosters become the first team to go back to back in 26 years.
We’ve covered a lot of ground in Campo’s Corner this week, but let’s lock right in on the game, where it will be lost and won, and who will write their name in rugby league history. That’s right, it’s time to preview the goddamn grand final.
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POINTS AT A PREMIUM
I’m expecting this game to be a little more open than the preliminary finals – the Raiders attacked nervously against Souths and the Roosters were drawn into a real grind with the Storm – but points will still be at a premium.
The two sides boast the second and third best defences in the league, but they operate differently. The Roosters’ defence is anticipatory – Trent Robinson likes to say great defence is a living, breathing thing, that doesn’t react to the opposition, but anticipates their movements.
Canberra are at the other end of the spectrum. The best quality of their defence is how well they react to what the other team is doing. They scramble better than any other side in the competition and where the Roosters excel at slowing down the ruck once they get someone to the ground, the Raiders try to physically dominate them at the point of the hit instead – their first up contact against the Storm and Rabbitohs was excellent.
We’ve spoken plenty of times this year about how Canberra’s attacking structures aren’t their best avenue to points against the top sides. Individual brilliance, be it via an offload, a tackle bust, tapping back a kick, is one of their best weapons because they have so many players who can be individually brilliant. Josh Hodgson’s creative qualities are well known, and Aidan Sezer has enjoyed a good season, but John Bateman, Joey Leilua, Elliott Whitehead, Jordan Rapana and Jack Wighton can also be creators. Offloads will be key for the Raiders and they’ll have the chance to pop a ball here and there – the Roosters have conceded 277 offloads this season, the second most of any team in the competition. Creating off the back of those offloads is their best chance to score.
This might make the Raiders harder for the Roosters to defend, given the Roosters are so attuned to shutting down conventional attacking movements. The Raiders don’t need to be chipping and chasing on tackle two from their own 30 (although that would be sick), but they need to be willing to embrace their own unorthodox nature.
LISTEN! In the season finale, Matty Johns is joined by James Hooper and Paul Kent to go over this Sunday’s grand final, plus how the build-up to the NRL’s biggest weekend can weigh on the favoured team (and how the Roosters are counteracting it!).
Conversely, the Roosters will be confident in their own attacking structures, which have been battle-tested under the harshest of scrutiny and have never failed to get the job done in a big game over the last two years. If the Raiders have a defensive weakness it’s out wide, where the centres meet the winger. Joey Leilua doesn’t mind a gamble and loves racing in to shut a play down – when it works, it’s awesome. When it doesn’t, and Jordan Rapana follows him in, it can lead to space on the outside. Jarrod Croker’s defense is unfairly maligned, but he does like to stick close to Jack Wighton, who rarely misses tackles but, like Leilua, loves rushing in.
That seems like the two areas the Roosters will target. That’s not to say they can dominate either edge – Leilua defended very well against Souths and Croker was lights out after the Dane Gagai try in the first half – but it at least gives them a clear spot to target. If the Raiders were to go at one place specifically, a good suggestion might be the Roosters’ left-hand side. Latrell Mitchell is not a bad defensive centre, but he can get found out with his deciscion making, and John Bateman should be going at Luke Keary as often as possible. It doesn’t need to be anything fancy, just nice, early ball to Bateman, Leilua and Rapana.
It sounds like a cliché, but this will really come down to who can make the most of their attacking chances. Both teams will get them at various points in the game – whoever holds their nerve and can convert possession into points will go a long way to winning, because either team can defend a very low amount of points for victory.
BIG MAN SEASON
Here’s an interesting thing from the last time the two teams met, in Round 20, when the Roosters got home 22-18 in a fine, tough, tense game of footy. All three of Canberra’s tries came on the back of penalties – the Roosters don’t mind giving one away, but if they offer the Raiders saloon passage into the attacking quarter Canberra are good enough to take advantage. Something else that’s notable – the Roosters have the worst completion rate in the competition. As good as they are, they can drop a ball.
A major key for the Roosters should be controlling field position. The Raiders rely a lot on their back five for yardage, and are quite conservative coming out of their own end. As we’ve noted before, they lead the league in dummy half runs and one-pass hit ups. Josh Papalii is a monster and churns through metres with ease against just about anyone, but he needs more support.
Joe Tapine is more of a natural edge player than a middle, but the Raiders need more from him in attack – he’s passed 100 metres just four times in 12 games at lock this year. Tapine is a rangy customer and tremendously strong and light on his feet, he can be very hard to take down – he just doesn’t run the ball enough. If he can lift his attacking involvement it will be a huge boost for the Raiders, who rely so much on Papalii and, to a lesser extent, Sia Soliola.
One advantage the Roosters have is their bench. It’s a measure of how deep their roster is that they can have two Test players start at prop, a player with rep football in his future at lock and still have someone as good as Sio Siua Taukeiaho on the bench.
The Raiders can experience flat spots when Papalii and Soliola are off the field at the same time – the Roosters should lock in on that period as a time to really turn the screws. Dunamis Lui is one of the Raiders’ success stories, and Corey Horsburgh isn’t called the Red Horse cause he looks good trotting around the yard, but matching up with a player of Taukeiaho’s caliber, not to mention Angus Crichton (who has improved as a middle) will be a tough ask.
Having said that, I’m expecting Papalii to play huge minutes again - maybe not the 71 of last week, but certainly 60+ and Soliola will likely be in for a similar shift.
KICKING CLEAR
Cooper Cronk’s kicking game is perhaps his best weapon. In the 2009 and 2012 grand finals he was the best player on the field and those Melbourne victories were built around the scaffolding of his kicks. Even now, when Cronk is quicker between the ears than the legs, his kicking game is still top shelf. He could be 55 years old and still be able to find the space between the opposition winger and fullback.
I mention this because, in his final game, Cronk could shape as the key man for the Roosters because of those kicks. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad likes to stand very deep, which creates the opportunity for a chip kick, and usually the Raiders only drop back one winger on the last to help him cover kicks. It’s something a sharp mind like Cronk’s wouldn’t have missed, so look for him to test the Raiders back three as often as he can. Two of the Roosters’ tries against the Raiders in Round 20 came from kicks – with the defences so evenly matched, grabbing some cheap points via opposition errors could prove crucial. In that same meeting, Daniel Tupou got the better of Rapana in the air – that’s a battle the Roosters will feel good about.
Jack Wighton’s move to the halves has been full of surprises, but what’s been the biggest is how well he’s adapted to the kicking side of playing five-eighth.
He’s kicked the ball more than any other Raider this year and he’s got one of the biggest boots in the competition. He can still have a little too much pepper on them at times, and in the attacking quarter Hodgson and Aidan Sezer are better options, but Wighton’s left foot is a weapon. He’s got the ability to send an ordinary, end over end bomb so high it becomes either a nightmare to catch or contestable, which should be something the Raiders try to do as often as they can.
CLIVE CHURCHILL MEDAL
James Tedesco and Cooper Cronk will feature heavily in the result of course, and are deserving favorites to take home the Clive Churchill Medal. It’s all but certain Tedesco will be heavily involved – that’s just how he plays – and he’s the Roosters’ best attacking weapon. Cronk’s importance to the Roosters’ kicking game means he’ll feature heavily, and if you’re keen to pick an outsider I like the look of Waerea-Hargreaves. He was superb last year against Melbourne and will be ready to rip in after the week off.
For the Raiders, there’s a host of candidates. Josh Papalii is always worth a look, as is Josh Hodgson, who is the shortest price of any Canberra player. Jordan Rapana is worth a lash if you’re a risk taker, as is Joey Leilua, but John Bateman ($21 with the Tab as of Friday afternoon) and Elliott Whitehead ($41) caught my eye. Bateman deserves all the plaudits he gets, but Whitehead is a terrific footballer who relishes the tough stuff but has plenty of class about him. A big game on both sides of the ball and they could join Sam Burgess as the only English winners of the prize.
FIRST TRYSCORER
The Roosters always start well – in their last seven matches they’ve scored 144 points in the first half compared to just 60 in the second, and the latter figure is blown out by a 30-point second half haul against the Warriors in Round 22. That New Zealand match was the only time in their last seven matches they scored more than 10 points in a second half.
Therefore, the Raiders need to be on their game early. They don’t need to be up 12-0 after 10 minutes or anything like that, but wearing the Roosters’ first punch and striking back is of paramount importance. None of this has anything to do with first try-scorers, but I wanted to mention it anyway.
Daniel Tupou is worth a look – he scored the first try last year, and the Roosters love hitting their left early. Latrell Mitchell and Luke Keary are good options for the same reason. I don’t mind the look of Victor Radley either, it’s easy to see him backing up on a line break after a bust on either edge.
Jarrod Croker is such a focal point of Canberra’s attack on their left, either through finishing a backline play or chasing a kick, so he’s worth a go, and Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad ($21 with the Tab on Friday) is worth a shot as well. If you’re a total lunatic, I’ve heard of worse shouts than Josh Papalii – he’s got a good combination with Hodgson close to the line, he’s strong enough and nimble enough to push between defenders and the Raiders can hammer the middle in the attacking 20.
TIP
The Raiders could send out the Mounties Sydney Shield team and I’d tip them out of loyalty – only a coward tips against his team when a grand final is on the line – but I genuinely think they’re going to win.
The big crowd will be pro-Raiders from the jump, and Canberra can ride that energy. If they start well and prove they can take the Roosters’ best shots, they’ll have a chance to win it in the final 20 minutes. Maybe it’s the 25-year drought, maybe it’s sleep deprivation, maybe I’m too deep in the tall grass after knocking out five columns this week, but that’s where I’m at.
First tryscorer: Jarrod Croker
Clive Churchill Medal: John Bateman
Raiders 16 Roosters 12