Where the first NRL preliminary final between Canberra and Souths will be won and lost
Former Penrith and Brisbane coach ANTHONY GRIFFIN believes South Sydney have the experience and firepower to upset the Raiders.
Rabbitohs
Don't miss out on the headlines from Rabbitohs. Followed categories will be added to My News.
EARLY MAIL: Who’s in for the preliminary finals?
BAN ME: Wighton wants out of the CBD
South Sydney will travel down to Canberra with a grand final berth on the line.
The Raiders are favourites but the Rabbitohs have plenty of quality across the park and in front of a sold-out crowd the match promises to be a cracker.
Here’s where the game will be won and lost
CANBERRA RAIDERS
STRENGTHS
Fit, fresh and at full strength.
The week off is a massive advantage for them against a battered and bruised opponent. Confidence is high after defeating the minor premiers in Melbourne in week one.
They have had a great season defensively, letting in only 15 points a game (third in the NRL), and backed that up against the Storm allowing only 10 points with the only try coming from a kick. They are very unpredictable in attack.
Stream every match of the 2019 NRL Telstra Premiership Finals Series before the Grand Final Live & On-Demand on KAYO SPORTS. Get your 14 day free trial and start streaming instantly >
Josh Hodgson runs the show and is a constant threat from dummy half – run, pass or kick.
He has weapons all across the park to work with – Josh Papalii and Joseph Tapine in the middle, John Bateman and Elliott Whitehead on the edges and Jarrod Croker/Nick Cotric and Joey Leilua/Jordan Rapana in the tramlines.
Add in fullback Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad - the buy of the year – and you have one of the most potent and unpredictable line-ups in the NRL.
WEAKNESSES
Experience. The Raiders have the least amount of finals experience of the remaining four teams. Only Leilua has played in a grand final, and seven of the 17 are experiencing finals football for the first time.
Their home record of 6-6 is also a worry for them. They have failed to defeat a top four team at GIO Stadium.
The left edge has been a problem in defence conceding over 30 tries (13th in the NRL). They have a 1-4 record when trailing at halftime.
Jarrod Croker’s’ goalkicking hasn’t been great over the last month – a 60 per cent conversion rate from his last 15 attempts.
MINDSET
A quarter of a century is long enough. This is the best opportunity we have had to break the grand final and premiership drought.
We can do something very special for our club and our community on Friday night.
Concentrate on ourselves – at our best we can beat anyone. It’s all about control and effort. That’s what got us the victory over the Storm.
Eighty minutes of disciplined ball control (79 per cent – third in the NRL) and selfless defence attitude. Don’t let any of the noise happening around us be a distraction.
Cool heads under pressure – when the game swings against us and Souths are at their best and the calls aren’t going our way, pull together and endure whatever we must until we get what we want.
IF I WERE THE RAIDERS
Start fast and physical. Simplicity with the ball and brutality in defence.
If there is any soreness or injury issues in the opposition expose it as quickly as possible. Get our attack into their right edge as much as possible.
Make Sam Burgess, Reynolds and Roberts tackle.
They are all under injury clouds and were disconnected technically last week.
Design a simple set to get Papalii into that lane as well as another option.
Kick left for field position and in good ball for Croker in behind Roberts and Reynolds. When Hodgson feels comfortable, kick early down the right side aiming for a 40/20.
At every opportunity push on Hodgson and be prepared to run our last plays. Bateman, Leilua and Rapana can expose Walker and Gagai especially down a wider short side.
Defensively, work overtime on controlling their play and ball speed – especially Murray. If we can control Cook, we can control them.
Lots of pressure on Reynolds and Walker through the set and last play.
SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS
STRENGTHS
Know how to win big games. They have won eight games on the road and beat the Raiders away in round 10 and beat the Roosters twice.
They have bucket loads of experience with six of their 2014 premiership team in their line up as well as Cowboys’ premiership winner Ethan Lowe. Dane Gagai, James Roberts, Dylan Walker, Damien Cook and Cam Murray are all Origin players with finals experience.
They were shaky last week but now they are one game away from a grand final and have the class to get there.
They have climbed off the canvas a few times this year. Adam Reynolds (85 per cent) is the No.2 ranked goal kicker in the NRL and is also No.2 for restarts in the opposition 20m.
Cook and Walker have contributed to over 40 try assists and line break assists. At their best they are a very good defensive team conceding only 17 points a game (fourth in the NRL).
WEAKNESSES
Fatigue and injuries. Souths looked tired last week. They are carrying a lot of injuries with doubts over Roberts and Murray, while Sam Burgess, Gagai, Reynolds and Alex Johnston are not 100 per cent.
Every team has these problems at this time of year but the Rabbitohs looked physically and mentally drained last week.
They made 10 errors – most of them in their own end – and conceded some very soft tries off the back of them. Reynolds and Sam Burgess looked very vulnerable on their right edge and Gagai couldn’t handle Moses Suli.
They missed 36 tackles and had 20 ineffective.
MINDSET
Last week wasn’t pretty but we are here now. The only thing that matters now is next 80 minutes. After everything we have been through this year – the coach, Greg Inglis, the injuries and form slump, getting belted by the Roosters in the first week of finals – we are still alive. Be meticulous in our recovery and preparation.
It’s all about our minds now not our bodies. Playing with injury is part of winning competitions.
Get our defence right and cut out the errors – we know how to win big games. Canberra in Canberra, against the odds in front of full house of raging Raiders supporters.
This is what you play for!
IF I WERE THE RABBITOHS
Be conscious of our discipline early on. No errors, no penalties. The Raiders are the best at one-on-one strips and milking penalties.
In their final against the Storm there were 21 penalties. In round 23 against Manly there were 27.
They love that niggling spiteful type of game that can frustrate teams who aren’t ready. Be strong in defence but smart.
Get out of the tackle cleanly and don’t give the officials any excuse to blow the whistle.
Be strong with the ball – make them earn everything – don’t hand them any cheap possession. Compress our defensive line and get our marker defence intense and aware.
Focus on Hodgson and chase their outside backs and backrowers whenever they are at dummy half.
Canberra throw the least number of passes and run from dummy half more than any other team.
I would play Murray at right edge in defence and Sam Burgess there in attack.
Play a lot of left-post width in good ball and lead Sam hard at Wighton’s inside shoulder.
The Raiders have had their problems on the left edge.
Obviously, when Murray gets Cook a play the ball to jump off, Walker can be released through the middle or on our left.
Stay composed on last play and get as many repeat sets as possible.
HOW THEY PLAY
When they met in round 10, they both completed at 84 per cent and cancelled each other out defensively.
The Raiders led 6-4 at halftime with all points coming from penalty goals.
Cook eventually put Walker through a hole for a try after 50 minutes and Souths withstood a final assault from Hodgson and Croker down their right side to get up in a tight contest.
This game could have a very similar look.
The No.9s are so important – Cook for his speed and spark and Hodgson for his leadership and brains. They both have great forward packs. The Raiders have more variety and strike - Bateman and Whitehead are unpredictable.
Look for the Raiders outside backs to also have a high involvement from dummy half and down short sides. Souths need big games from their halves and forward leaders.
They are not as quick and skilful but if the Burgess brothers along with Sutton and Murray can get on top the Rabbitohs will be hard to beat.
At his best Reynolds can get this job done with Walker’s assistance. Expect and extremely close and intense battle to the death.
If Souths can lift, and get their defence right, I think they have they have the big match players and experience to sneak home.
Prediction – RABBITOHS BY 2