NRL preliminary final formguide: Michael Ennis dissects the much-anticipated Penrith v Souths clash
This is not Newcastle or Parramatta, this is the minor premiers and Souths better not let the Panthers skip away early or this much-anticipated preliminary final could end a real fizzer.
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NRL premiership winner and Fox League analyst Michael Ennis breaks down the preliminary final clash between Penrith and South Sydney, and pinpoints where the game will be won or lost.
HOW THEY PLAY: PANTHERS
When you look at Penrith this year and what they’d be able to sustain, the last thing you want to do is try and produce something you haven’t had all season.
The fact they’ve starved the opposition of any possession through their defence and the kicking game of Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai and controlled the ball better than any other side says it all.
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To add to that, they have an attacking brilliance that’s been there all season and has held up under pressure against the Roosters, even though they trailed early.
They weren’t shell-shocked and didn’t throw the ball around looking for individuals to dig them out of the hole. They stuck to what they’ve done all season and they shut the Roosters out for 50 minutes, - they put on 28 straight points.
With their young legs they ran them off their feet and wore them down.
HOW THEY PLAY: RABBITOHS
The way they have built to the finals series, with no Origin in the middle of the year, has helped their players find their best form at the most important time of the year.
Cody Walker is arguably the best player in the competition right now, Adam Reynolds is having his best season since 2014 and Damien Cook has really improved on his form from the earlier part of the year.
Cook, in particular, has benefited from no Origin duty. In past seasons he’s flattened out at this time of year, but at the moment he’s playing as well as he ever has. When you add in Corey Allan, who has continued to build and build each week at fullback, and their attack, they’ve been the best team in the competition for six weeks now.
STRENGTHS: PANTHERS
The area where they’ve been so good is through the middle. When the two teams played in Round 7, James Fisher-Harris had 204 metres, James Tamou 150m and they had great contributions from the rest. Neither Tom Burgess nor Tevita Tatola had over 100 metres and that’s where this game will be won, through the middle.
The Panthers need to replicate that intensity and set a platform for their spine. Their youth and hunger and aggression is such an asset, and you add in the experience of Tamou, the composure and ball-playing of Isaah Yeo, the aggression of Liam Martin, the impact they get from Zane Tetevano and Moses Leota, it’s just a really well-balance forward pack.
Even though Viliame Kikau is a loss, Kurt Capewell can fill that hole - he’s a talented and skilful athlete, and his experience for the Sharks in 2016 proves the occasion won’t be too much for him.
STRENGTHS: RABBITOHS
We all know how potent South Sydney’s attack has become, but the key for Souths is their defence and whether they can match the physicality of this young Panthers side.
Their defensive resolve on their tryline, and their decision making, shapes as a big challenge. Cody Walker said he was disappointed with some of his defensive decisions against Parramatta and there’s a lot of pressure on Dane Gagai and Jed Cartwright to get their decisions right.
There’s no more vulnerable position in a side than the centres, and the form of Cleary and Luai on either edge means they’re going to have to be very good defensively.
WEAKNESSES: PANTHERS
Prelim finals often have a lot more pressure than grand finals. The intensity in these games is phenomenal and the fact their season, for the first time, is on the line, that’s their great test.
How they handle the two weeks, and the pressures of a sudden-death semi-final, is the only possibility of a weakness in Penrith at the moment, because in terms of what they’ve displayed with their football, you’re nitpicking or looking for things that are so minor.
WEAKNESSES: RABBITOHS
South Sydney have had this trend, and Bennett has spoken about it through the year, where they can be undone by errors. They can beat themselves.
They had 18 errors last week against Parramatta and if they give that amount of footy to Penrith, they won’t be in the contest. Likewise, their starts over the past two weeks haven’t been fast - they trailed 14-0 to Newcastle after as many minutes and Parramatta led 18-8 at halftime last week. The Panthers only concede around 12 points a game and if South Sydney give away that lead against Penrith, they won’t get it back.
MINDSET: PANTHERS
Penrith will look to play really aggressive and fast, and kick to the corners. That’s the ambition of every side going into a final, but I think Cleary’s composure and the confidence he’s playing with at the moment, plus the combination he’s got with Koroisau and how they’ve been able to control the middle of the field, means they can do it.
They’ll also look to tighten up their defence and up the line speed, and get stuck into Tatola and Burgess, because if they win that battle it can limit Damien Cook’s impact and it forces Reynolds and Walker to play off the back foot.
That’s challenging for any halves pairing. If they starve Souths of restarts, where they’re so good, and good field position, that’s where they can win it.
MINDSET: RABBITOHS
Souths will want to put this young side under the blowtorch early and see if they can unsettle them. Reynolds kicking game is always good, so I think in turn he’ll try and put Dylan Edwards and Brian To’o under pressure early.
We’ll see Tatola, Burgess and Jaydn S’uA play really flat and physical to try and get Cook into things and open the game up a bit. If Tatola and Burgess can win the power game look for Souths to shift to the edges and try to isolate Cleary and Luai with early ball to Su’A and Sironen.
If this game gets into a grinding, field-position type match, it favours Penrith - Souths will want to up the tempo and make things as free-flowing as possible. That plays to their strengths, because if it comes down to a points shootout, they’ll fancy their chances against anyone.
IF I WERE THE: PANTHERS
We need to start well and get ourselves into the physical battle. Lots of early carries from Josh Mansour and Brian To’o and the middles should look to use the ball to move the Rabbitohs pack around with short interchanges of passing once they get momentum.
Cleary needs to kick to the corners, Luai controls the left side of the field. When our bench comes on we need them to make a difference.
There’ll be individual conversations with Cleary, Koroisau and Luai that will be nearly identical to what Bennett is saying in the opposing sheds - Api needs to control the middle and back himself. When Burgess is left on the ground, when Tatola is tired, when Liam Knight is left out of a tackle he needs to take off and take that opportunity around the ruck.
The coach will talk to Cleary and Luai about sticking to what we do and what’s worked all year. We don’t need to try and come up with something we haven’t done all season. Let’s be really busy, make sure we’re pushing with Koroisau when he comes out of dummy half, let’s inspire our edges, let’s make our one-on-one tackles. You know you’ll see Sironen and Su’A coming at you, and you have to be ready.
IF I WERE THE: RABBITOHS
We know we have confidence in our attack, but we need to trust each other defensively.
In the big games, when the big moments come, we need to turn up for each other and trust each other.
We know this side loves possession and we know there’s times we’ll have to hang tough, when they’ll have the footy for long blocks and we need to be resilient on our tryline and continue to turn up for one another.
When our time comes we don’t need to do anything we haven’t done this year, he won’t ask anything of anyone that they haven’t done all year. I daresay he’ll speak to his middles about how important they are, and he’ll talk to Walker and Cook on their own and tell them to back themselves.
When your moments come, back yourselves and take the moment. That’s what we do so well.
PREDICTION: PANTHERS BY 8 POINTS