Greg Alexander: Why Knights best chance of beating Souths is to shut down the star who does it all
Led by Cody Walker, the Rabbitohs must feel almost impregnable at the moment after smashing the Roosters, and therein lies their biggest danger of bowing out to Newcastle on Sunday.
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NRL premiership winner and Fox League analyst Greg Alexander breaks down the elimination finals clash between South Sydney and Newcastle, and pinpoints where the game will be won or lost.
HOW THEY PLAY
When Latrell Mitchell was ruled out for the season in round 16 many thought it ended the Rabbitohs’ premiership chances.
However, since then Cody Walker has revolutionised the way he’s played. Walker is playing six and one at the same time, assuming the role of Mitchell. Playing both sides of the field he is doing it all – out the back, on the right and tipping his wingers into space.
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He is also leading the short-side raids and long balls down the left, while never being far from the ruck on a quick play the ball. He’s the focus.
Leading into the final round, Newcastle scored more tries from kicks than any other side. Most of those revolve around Mitchell Pearce. If he can put it on the spot for Edrick Lee, they become a lethal combination.
SOUTH SYDNEY
STRENGTHS
Confidence will play a big part in how far the Rabbits go in the final series and after the demolition of the Roosters they’ll believe they can match the top four teams.
Walker’s form is undeniable but the Rabbitohs have doubled down with Adam Reynolds playing some career best footy in the past six weeks. His long and short kicking will be a big part of Souths’ game and his combination with Walker is as dangerous as it’s ever been.
Cameron Murray has been the best No.13 all year and his work in the middle will have a considerable impact on Damien Cook’s running game.
WEAKNESSES
Coming from sixth, there are no second chances, so the Bunnies can’t afford any of their big guns to miss their assignments. Cook needs to pick his time to run. Reynolds can’t just rely on his kicking game. The forwards, who have somewhat silenced there critics, need to win the battle in the middle and provide space for Walker. If any of these pieces aren’t at their best, Souths’ season could be done.
MINDSET
After putting 60 points on the Roosters they come into this game as red-hot favourites. They need to start the game like that. They need to be aggressive and assert their dominance. They know Newcastle’s only hope is to throw the kitchen sink at them early to try and dent Souths’ confidence. They have to be prepared for an early onslaught from Newcastle.
IF I WERE THE RABBITOHS
The Titans ball movement worried the Knights edges last start. I’d be looking to move the footy around the halfway line.
The Newcastle left edge haven’t played many games together. I’d be trying to exploit that lack of cohesion and trust through Walker, Jaydn Su’A and Campbell Graham.
Reynolds and Walker scheming around that area could also cause Newcastle problems.
Moving the ball and spreading the Knights defence will leave them vulnerable. Quick play the balls with Cook jumping out and Walker in close punching into holes.
Defensively I would go after Daniel Saifiti and David Klemmer. Limit them and you go a way to shutting down Kalyn Ponga.
NEWCASTLE
STRENGTHS
There is none better against a retreating defence than Ponga. Fifty per cent of Newcastle tries through the second half of the season have involved the Knights fullback. That alone shows the importance of their No.1.
State of Origin props Saifiti and Klemmer backed up by Mitch Barnett have shown through the season they can lay the platform that Mitchell Pearce and Ponga need to make inroads in the opposition. That’s a non-negotiable.
He’s only young and back just a week after a long lay-off but Bradman Best looks dangerous whenever he touches the ball and adds some strike on the edge.
WEAKNESSES
The cracks in the armour are there for all to see. It’s been a disastrous final month and a bit for Newcastle.
They’ve had 30 plus points put on them by the Warriors, Roosters and Titans and the fact they could not lift when they had a home final on the line and were thumped by Gold Coast is a concern.
If Pearce can’t land his kicks and Souths defence can limit Ponga, the Knights are in trouble.
MINDSET
Start fast. Stats this year show when Newcastle score the first try they win. That should be enough motivation to bring plenty of energy to the opening 20 minutes.
They’re up against a confident outfit and need to knock some belief out of South Sydney early.
They need to be excited about the challenge and bring the intensity that’s been missing in recent weeks. The tone needs to be set through their defence.
IF I WERE THE KNIGHTS
I’d be putting targets on Reynolds, Cook and Walker getting them to make as many tackles as possible. Limit their impact with the ball and create your own ruck speed with some bigger bodies on smaller playmakers.
Ultimately this is to give Ponga some room.
I’d go at Souths’ left, where combinations haven’t spent a lot of time together. I’d also look to put an early kick in behind Graham who likes to get off the line hard and they might catch inexperienced Corey Allen out of position.
Defence hasn’t been their strong point recently but that needs to be what everything is built on.
Tighten their defensive line and go after Souths’ first few plays, which might restrict their danger men. Don’t try and solve problems on your own. They need to kick to corners and back their defence.
Prediction: South Sydney by 10.