The damning statistic that shows why Ivan Cleary is not the man to lead Penrith to a premiership
AFTER all the drama, headlines and money spent, Penrith are staring down the barrel of a major embarrassment unless Ivan Cleary can rewrite rugby league coaching history.
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IT is the damning statistic that shows why Penrith is staring down the barrel of a major embarrassment unless Ivan Cleary can rewrite rugby league coaching history.
With Cleary expected to ditch the Wests Tigers in the coming days after another round of high powered meetings on Friday to link with the club that unceremoniously sacked him in 2015, the Panthers have basically backed the 47-year-old to do what no coach has done before.
That is, win his first grand final after coaching 250 or more games.
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The expectation on Cleary and the Panthers next season will be nothing less than a premiership triumph will justify Cleary’s anticipated backdoor exit from the Tigers.
Phil Gould basically said as much when sacking Anthony Griffin, claiming Griffin was not the coach to take Penrith the next step.
That was despite the team sitting equal fourth on the NRL ladder at that point.
It now leaves Cleary with little margin for error.
Yet The Saturday Telegraph can reveal that the weight of history is against Cleary and the Panthers claiming a title together.
Cleary currently has 295 NRL games to his name, with an overall success rate of just 47.1 per cent.
To put it in perspective, Fox Sports Stats show that every previous premiership winning coach did it before clocking up 250 games.
John Lang went 249 games before securing his first and only title at the Panthers in 2003.
Other coaches who coached more than 250 games but never won a title include Brian Smith (601), Graham Murray (331), Matthew Elliott (265) and Roy Masters (250).
Smith, Murray, Masters and Cleary all took teams to grand finals.
As it stands, Cleary is 16th on the all-time list for most games, just five short of joining the 300 club.
While Cleary developed his reputation on the back of rebuilding clubs, this time he faces an entirely different challenge, with no room for excuses.
There’s no question the Panthers not only boast one of the best rosters in the NRL but they also have outstanding depth and resources and a junior base that is the envy of most rivals.
And after falling two games short of the grand final this year, despite massive turmoil at the club, Cleary risks major damage to his reputation if he fails to deliver the ultimate prize.
Cleary coached 154 games in New Zealand between 2006 and 2011 with a 50 per cent success rate, winning 77 of 154 matches and making the grand final in 2011.
In his previous stint at Penrith between 2012 and 2015 he had a strike rate of 44.9 per cent, winning 44 of 98 matches and making one preliminary final.
At the Tigers in 2017 and this season, he had another modest 42 per cent winning record, 18 of 43 games without making the play-offs.
Cleary has justifiably earned plenty of praise for the work he did giving stability back to the Tigers.
But his anticipated decision to walk out on the club with two years left on his contract has been met with widespread anger.
It was Cleary who termed the phrase “on the bus”, but hasn’t that come back to haunt him now.
Almost everyone in the game understands Cleary’s desire to coach his son Nathan.
But the way this has all come about has left a rotten smell hanging over Ivan’s credibility.
Aside from reading from a prepared statement following Griffin’s exit at the Panthers, Cleary has point blank refused to answer questions or give any clarity on his future.
Initially, Tigers fans were prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt, thinking his “intention” to see out the remaining years of his contract was all they needed to hear.
But that goodwill has understandably turned to anger and frustration.
Cleary continued to not answer calls while details of the deal were being thrashed out behind closed doors.
Many people have rightly questioned why he would want to walk out on a club that gave him a chance after he was ruthlessly sacked by Gould previously.
Cleary doesn’t owe it to the media to give us his explanation.
He owes it to the club’s supporters who backed him and believed in his one-in-all-in “on the bus” mantra.
To leave them in the dark is just poor form.
If this gamble ultimately backfires, it would be hard to imagine how Cleary’s reputation could ever recover.
And as history shows, the odds are stacked against him.
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