NRL Finals: Which clubs are best positioned to make the semi-finals?
There’s just eight weeks left until the finals - which NRL clubs are still in the race and which games are most crucial in the run towards the playoffs?
Teams
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The gap between the NRL’s finals contenders and the rest of the league could blow out as soon as this weekend with a clear gap emerging between the contenders.
If the Tigers can’t conjure an upset win over the Knights this weekend, there will be a clear four-point gap between ninth and 10th place as the NRL competition narrows down in the run in to the finals.
With just eight weeks to go until the semi-finals, Nick Campton has taken a look at every club’s run home and analysed how they could fare in the race to the playoffs.
1) Penrith Panthers - 21 points (+134)
Run home: Rd 13 vs Raiders (H), Rd 14 vs Warriors (A), Rd 15 vs Sharks (H), Rd 16 vs Tigers (H), Rd 17 vs Broncos (A), Rd 18 vs Eels (H), Rd 19 vs Cowboys (A), Rd 20 vs Bulldogs (A)
Analysis: The minor premiership is Penrith’s to lose. They play just three top eight teams in the final eight weeks, and right now they’d be favourites for every game they’re playing except for the blockbuster against Parramatta in Round 18. Their draw with Newcastle removes for and against from the equation.
Predicted finish: 1st
Key man: Api Koroisau
The buy of the year by miles and miles, Koroisau as been at the heart of Penrith’s charge to the top of the ladder and the dynamic hooker has struck up an instant combination with Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai. So long as the Panthers' forwards keep going forward and creating space for Koroisau, he’ll keep cutting teams to pieces and with the form of James Fisher-Harris, James Tamou and Isaah Yeo the Fijian rake will have plenty of chances to keep showing what he can do.
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2) Melbourne Storm - 20 points (+157)
Run home: Rd 13 vs Bulldogs (H), Rd 14 vs Roosters (A), Rd 15 vs Eels (A), Rd 16 vs Sea Eagles (H), Rd 17 vs Rabbitohs (A), Rd 18 vs Cowboys (H), Rd 19 vs Tigers (H), Rd 20 vs Dragons (A)
Analysis: It’s outrageous that Melbourne are still this good. They’ve relocated to Queensland and probably can’t go home for a long time, but they still keep winning and winning and winning. Cameron Smith’s injury is a minor blow, but they’re still good enough to control their own destiny despite a tricky draw that contains clashes with Parramatta and the Roosters. If they win at least one of those and clean up the rest that should be enough to finish in the top four for the sixth year in a row.
Predicted finish: 3rd
Key man: Jahrome Hughes
Hughes is still a good footballer more than he’s a good halfback but he’s become more comfortable as a first-receiver this year and his kicking game has also improved. Melbourne’s playmaking style is unconventional, but it works for them during the regular season. In the semi-finals, though, they’ll need Hughes to provide a little more structure against the best defensive teams in the competition.
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3) Parramatta Eels - 20 points (+122)
Run home: Rd 13 vs Sharks (A), Rd 14 vs Dragons (H), Rd 15 vs Storm (H), Rd 16 vs Rabbitohs (H), Rd 17 vs Warriors (A), Rd 18 vs Panthers (A), Rd 19 vs Broncos (H), Rd 20 vs Tigers (A)
Analysis: The furthest away from Sydney the Eels are likely to go for the rest of the regular season is Gosford and five of their last eight matches are likely to be at Bankwest Stadium. The matches against the Storm and Panthers will determine their chances of finishing in the top two, but at the very least a top four spot and the crucial double chance is theirs to lose.
Predicted finish: 2nd
Key man: Junior Paulo
Reagan Campbell-Gillard has gotten plenty of plaudits for his work in the middle of the field and rightly so, but Paulo has been just as impressive. Where Campbell-Gillard is the superior metre-eater, Paulo’s tremendous skill for a big man helps Parramatta play with their trademark width as he ducks into first receiver with an ease that belies his size. Along with Nathan Brown, he’s Parramatta’s most important forward.
4) Sydney Roosters - 16 points (+166)
Run home: Rd 13 vs Dragons (A), Rd 14 vs Storm (H), Rd 15 vs Tigers (A), Rd 16 vs Broncos (H), Rd 17 vs Raiders (A), Rd 18 vs Knights (H), Rd 19 vs Sharks (H), Rd 20 vs Rabbitohs (A)
Analysis: It’s not an easy run for the two-time defending premiers. They’ve only got one top four team (Melbourne) but play the entire bottom half of the top eight in the final month of the competition. They might have looked shaky in recent weeks but only a fool would doubt them — Trent Robinson has shown himself to be an expert at getting his team to peak at just the right time. So long as they finish in the top four, and they probably will, they can still win it all.
Predicted finish: 4th
Key man: Sonny Bill Williams
How can Williams be a key man if he hasn’t played a game yet? Because the question for the Roosters was never about talent - we all know exactly how talented they are and we all know how ruthless and hard-nosed and flat-out excellent they can be.
But the mental and physical strain of two-straigh premierships is a heavy load to bear for any team. There’s a reason it’s so unusual for a team to go back to back, let alone win three in a row, and the Roosters need a boost. What will make Williams a crucial inclusion is not so much his on-field play, but his aura, his work around the training paddock and his ability to inspire his teammates. Even if Williams is just a bit-part player for the Roosters, his influence could spread far beyond his playing time.
5) Canberra Raiders - 16 points (+43)
Run home: Rd 13 vs Panthers (A), Rd 14 vs Broncos (H), Rd 15 vs Titans (A), Rd 16 vs Bulldogs (H), Rd 17 vs Roosters (A), Rd 18 vs Dragons (A), Rd 19 vs Warriors (H), Rd 20 vs Sharks (A)
Analysis: This week’s match with Penrith ends what has been a very difficult period for the Raiders and from there sailing should be much smoother. They play two current top-eight teams the rest of the way and just one top-four side. Landing a second win over the Roosters will be a tall order, but if Canberra can sneak home a top four spot is not beyond them.
Predicted finish: 5th
Key man: Josh Papalii
The Raiders are starting to get some weapons back and John Bateman’s return was especially welcome for the depleted Green Machine, but even when their players were dropping like flies they stayed competitive due in no small part to the form of Josh Papalii. Along with Josh Hodgson, the big man is Canberra’s most important player and with the Englishman gone for the season there is even more responsibility on his large shoulders.
6) Cronulla Sharks - 14 points (+46)
Run home: Rd 13 vs Eels (H), Rd 14 vs Titans (H), Rd 15 vs Penrith (A), Rd 16 vs Cowboys (H), Rd 17 vs Knights (A), Rd 18 vs Warriors (H), Rd 19 vs Roosters (A), Rd 20 vs Raiders (H)
Analysis: The Sharks have come from nowhere to win six of their last seven and rocket into the top six, but things might not be so easy on the run home. They play three of the top four, plus the Knights and the Raiders. To make the finals they likely have to win at least two of those matches - the clash with Newcastle in Round 17 shapes as a crucial one for both clubs.
Predicted finish: 7th
Key man: Shaun Johnson
This might be the best season Shaun Johnson has ever had in first grade. Cronulla’s youth brigade have come to the forefront in recent weeks and Johnson has steered them around the park beautifully - he leads the NRL in try assists and has moved into a new stage of his career, where the speed of his thoughts has finally surpassed that of his feet.
7) Newcastle Knights - 13 points (+31)
Run home: Rd 13 vs Tigers (H), Rd 14 vs Sea Eagles (H), Rd 15 vs Cowboys (H), Rd 16 vs Warriors (A), Rd 17 vs Sharks (H), Rd 18 vs Roosters (A), Rd 19 vs Dragons (H), Rd 20 vs Titans (A)
Analysis: It’s been a shaky few weeks for the Knights and injuries are starting to bite badly, but the finals are still there for them if they’re good enough. They only play one top-four team and two top-eight teams the rest of the way and over the next five weeks they won’t travel further than Gosford. They also have the advantage of playing several other contenders for spots in the bottom half of the eight. It can happen for Newcastle, but it has to start right now.
Predicted finish: 6th
Key man: Mitchell Pearce
The recruitment of Blake Green represents a big change for the Knights - Kurt Mann has enjoyed a fine season at five-eighth but will now be switched to hooker but Green’s strong organising and kicking skills should take some playmaking pressure off Pearce. The Knights skipper hasn’t been able to find his best form in 2020 but this move could unlock him - and through that, Newcastle’s attack should improve.
8) South Sydney Rabbitohs - 12 points (+34)
Run home: Rd 13 vs Broncos (H), Rd 14 vs Cowboys (A), Rd 15 vs Sea Eagles (H), Rd 16 vs Eels (A), Rd 17 vs Storm (H), Rd 18 vs Tigers (A), Rd 19 vs Bulldogs (H), Rd 20 vs Roosters (H)
Analysis: They say all you need to do to make the finals is beat the bad teams and that might be enough for the Rabbitohs in 2020. They take on three of the top four in the final eight weeks but don’t have another top-eight team on their schedule. Knocking off the Sea Eagles and/or Tigers, as well as cleaning up the three bottom-four teams, should be enough for them to get home.
Predicted finish: 9th
Key man: Cody Walker
The Rabbitohs don’t have as much muscle in the middle of the field as some of their finals rivals, so their best course is scoring points and plenty of them. Walker is South Sydney’s best attacking weapon and their key playmaker - it is through him that Adam Reynolds, Latrell Mitchell and Damien Cook can play their best football.
9) Manly Sea Eagles - 12 points (-44)
Run home: Rd 13 vs Warriors (H), Rd 14 vs Knights (A), Rd 15 vs Rabbitohs (A), Rd 16 vs Storm (A), Rd 17 vs Tigers (A), Rd 18 vs Bulldogs (A), Rd 19 vs Titans (H), Rd 20 vs Warriors (A)
Analysis: It’s been tough going for Manly, who can’t seem to shake off injuries to some of their key players, but their draw isn’t the worst. There’s just one top-four team and the Sea Eagles will fancy their chances against the Knights and Rabbitohs, especially if Tom Trbojevic comes back sooner rather than later, but they need to make hay while the sun is shining due to their horrendous points differential. The Round 14 game with the Knights shapes as their most crucial of the season - they could potentially leapfrog the Novocastrians with a win.
Predicted finish: 8th
Key man: Tom Trbojevic
They need him back and they need him back soon. The Sea Eagles are not a one man team and they rely on Addin Fonua-Blake almost as much as they do their star custodian, but if the Sea Eagles are to bolt from the quicksand and push into the finals they need Trbojevic doing the kind of things only Trbojevic can do.
10) Wests Tigers - 10 points (+52)
Run home: Rd 13 vs Knights (A), Rd 14 vs Bulldogs (H), Rd 15 vs Roosters (H), Rd 16 vs Panthers (A), Rd 17 vs Sea Eagles (A), Rd 18 vs Rabbitohs (H), Rd 19 vs Storm (A), Rd 20 vs Eels (H)
Analysis: It’s a long way back for the Tigers now. If they lose to Newcastle this weekend you can just about put a line through them, but even if they win and manage to beat Canterbury next week they’ve still got the entire top four to play, as well as the Sea Eagles and Rabbitohs. Given they’ve only beaten one current top-eight team all season it’s a tall order for Michael Maguire’s men.
Predicted finish: 10th
Key man: Luke Brooks
The Tigers lack the star power of many of their finals rivals and they need Luke Brooks to hit top form right now. Brooks has played plenty of good football in recent years, but there can be no more waiting for him to find his feet or forge new combinations. If the Tigers are to end the longest finals drought in the NRL Brooks has to follow Benji Marshall and Harry Grant and get things moving right now.
11) St George Illawarra Dragons - 8 points (-22)
Run home: Rd 13 vs Roosters (H), Rd 14 vs Eels (A), Rd 15 vs Broncos (A), Rd 16 vs Titans (H), Rd 17 vs Cowboys (A), Rd 18 vs Raiders (H), Rd 19 vs Knights (A), Rd 20 vs Storm (H)
Analysis: Bear with me on this one. If the Dragons can somehow upset either the Eels or Roosters they have three winnable games in a row and could end up on the fringe of the eight. Their last three matches are all fiendishly difficult, but making the finals is not impossible for the Red V. It’s highly improbable, and they’ve only beaten one top-eight team all season but stranger things have happened in 2020.
Predicted finish: 11th
Key man: Corey Norman
Ben Hunt cops a lot of flak from Dragons fans but they need more out of Corey Norman if they’re to turn things around. Norman is on track for his lowest try assist total since 2014 and needs to step up to the plate if St George Illawarra are to make a miracle run to the finals.
12) New Zealand Warriors - 8 points (-135)
Run home: Rd 13 vs Sea Eagles (A), Rd 14 vs Panthers (H), Rd 15 vs Bulldogs (A), Rd 16 vs Knights (A) Rd 17 vs Eels (H), Rd 18 vs Sharks (A), Rd 19 vs Raiders (A), Rd 20 vs Sea Eagles (H)
Analysis: There’s not a league fan alive who wouldn’t love to see the Warriors make the finals and the fact they’re still in mathematical contention is a credit to the players. But they’re losing players all the time and play five top-eight teams in their final eight games, plus Manly twice. It feels like a bridge too far.
Predicted finish: 13th
Key man: Tohu Harris
Harris has enjoyed a mighty season since moving to lock and has emerged as New Zealand’s best player along with fullback Roger Tuivasa-Sheck. With players going home, other players arriving or departing on loan and consistency difficult to come by, having a reliable performer like Harris is a godsend for interim coach Todd Payten.