NRL 2021: Round 4 team analysis, winless teams can’t afford to lose again

History tells us it is difficult — although not impossible — to play NRL finals after a 0-3 start. Are Manly, North Queensland or Canterbury any hope?

WOLLONGONG, AUSTRALIA – MARCH 26: Martin Taupau and Jake Trbojevic of the Seas Eagles looks dejected after a Dragons try during the round three NRL match between the St George Illawarra Dragons and the Manly Warringah Sea Eagles at WIN Stadium on March 26, 2021, in Wollongong, Australia. (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

Mark down February 22 as the day Manly’s season ended.

Sure, it was a month before they played their first real match of the season, but the announcement that Tom Trbojevic had suffered yet another hamstring injury directly led to the Sea Eagles’ disastrous 0-3 season start.

Things only get harder for the northern beaches club on Thursday night against ladder leaders Penrith, who have not skipped a beat after reaching the grand final last season.

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Only 10 of the 46 teams that have opened their campaign with three straight losses in the NRL era have gone on to make the finals.

Of those 46 teams, 12 have finished as wooden spooners.

Do 0-3 starters Manly, Canterbury and North Queensland have any hope?

And on the flip side, can Penrith and Parramatta keep dominating the competition?

0-3 START

MANLY SEA EAGLES

Roosters 46 d Sea Eagles 4

Rabbitohs 26 d Sea Eagles 12

Dragons 38 d Sea Eagles 12

1. What is their problem?

Trbojevic’s hamstrings. This team just can’t win without the star fullback. Since 2019, Trbojevic has missed 30 games through injury and the Sea Eagles have only managed eight wins. There is also a 12-point difference in points scored when Trbojevic is on the field and nowhere has that been evidenced more than in Manly 0-3 start to season 2021. But given the quality attacking talent elsewhere in the side with the likes of Daly Cherry-Evans, Kieran Foran, Dylan Walker and even Jake Trbojevic, the lack of strike is a major concern for the Sea Eagles.

2. Can they fix it easily?

Like solving the riddle of Trbojevic’s hamstrings, probably not. But it’s not all doom and gloom, boom rookie Josh Schuster showed plenty of promise with the ball in hand last weekend playing in the backrow. Schuster is a five-eighth and if the wins don’t start coming, it might be time for coach Des Hasler to pull the trigger on Foran and play the exciting prospect where he belongs, which is in the halves.

Daly Cherry-Evans, Martin Taupau and Jake Trbojevic dejected after Dragons score a try. Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images

3. Can they rebound from 0-3?

Considering Manly take on the Warriors, Titans, Tigers and the Panthers again in the next month, a rebound looks possible, only if the points start flowing and the side’s defence, especially on the edges, find some steel.

4. Will there be a fan and media over-reaction if they are winless after this round?

Manly faithful want to see Hasler make mass team changes but the problem for both the fans and the coach is that the squad lacks quality depth in key positions like at fullback and hooker.

5. Contract situation

The Sea Eagles have 10 players off-contract but it is New Zealand international Marty Taupau who is on the chopping block. Last week, The Daily Telegraph revealed Taupau, who has one more year on his deal, is being shopped around. Offloading Taupau could open the door for the club to make a bigger player for Parramatta’s Nathan Brown. South Sydney’s Jayden Su’A is also a target but The Daily Telegraph understands the Rabbitohs have made the forward a retention priority.

Players off contract in 2021: Tevita Funa, Morgan Boyle, Lachlan Croker, Reuben Garrick, Jack Gosiewski, Brad Parker, Toafofoa Sipley, Curtis Sironen, Jorge Taufua, Dylan Walker

BY THE NUMBERS

Tries: 14th, 1.7 per game

Run metres: 11th, 1368m

Post contact Metres: 11th, 447m

Tackle busts: 15th, 22.3 per game

Tries conceded: 16th, 6.7 per game

Missed tackles: 10th, 30.7 per game

Source: Fox Sports Lab

CANTERBURY BULLDOGS

Knights 32 d Bulldogs 16

Penrith 28 def Bulldogs 0

Broncos 24 d Bulldogs 0

1. What is their problem?

Proud Bulldogs fans would be forgiven for feeling like this side has gone backwards this season. But there were signs of life against Penrith in round two, until the tide turned and the Bulldogs crumbled. The Bulldogs haven’t scored a point in 160 minutes of football and if history is anything to go — the Bulldogs have finished either last of 15th for tries scored in the last four seasons — the points won’t be flowing anytime soon.

2. Can they fix it easily?

Coach Trent Barrett was credited for turning around Penrith’s attack last year but hasn’t been able to wave his magic wand at Belmore just yet. Canterbury’s spine of Corey Allan, Sione Katoa, Jake Averillo and Kyle Flanagan is new and inexperienced and struggling to execute in attack. The idea of injecting Penrith’s Matt Burton into this side as some magic fix is only giving fans a false sense of hope.

Once again, Canterbury are struggling to score points. Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images

3. Can they rebound from 0-3?

Honestly, it’s not looking great for Barrett’s troops. Outside of a winnable contest against the equally embattled Cowboys outfit in round six, Canterbury’s other opponents in the next five weeks – Rabbitohs, Storm, Sharks and Eels – all have classier rosters capable of prolonging Canterbury’s pain.

4. Will there be a fan and media over-reaction if they are winless after this round?

They don’t came as passionate or as vocal as Canterbury fans. Die-hard fans threatened a mutiny last season and pushed for the removal of the Lynne Anderson-led board. Bulldogs fans would be frustrated at the lacklustre start but understand this club is going through a genuine rebuild and patience is a must.

5. Contract situation

Canterbury have 15 players off contracts including big names like Dylan Napa, Dallin Watene-Zelezniak and Will Hopoate. Barrett has tried to off-load Napa and there has been speculation Watene-Zelezniak has been shopped around to help unshackle the club from his huge deal. Half of the current squad is fighting to save their Bulldogs careers but realistically the roster will have wholesale changes for next season.

Players off contract in 2021: Renouf Atoni, Dean Britt, Christian Crichton, Will Hopoate, Sione Katoa, Tui Katoa, Lachlan Lewis, Jeremy Marshall-King, Nick Meaney, Dylan Napa, Ofahiki Ogden, Jayden Okunbor, James Roumanos, Ava Seumanufagai, Chris Smith

BY THE NUMBERS

Tries: 16th, 1 per game

Run metres: 16th, 1261m

Post contact Metres: 15th, 405m

Tackle busts: 16th, 19.3

Tries conceded: 13th, 4.7 per game

Missed tackles: 15th, 38 per game

Source: Fox Sports Lab

NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS

Panthers 24 d Cowboys 0

Dragons 25 d Cowboys 18

Titans 44 d Cowboys 8

1. What is their problem?

Soft underbelly and embarrassing. That’s Josh McGuire’s words, not ours. But it’s hard to disagree with the candid forward. The Cowboys looked disinterested last weekend against the Titans, highlighted by the 38 tackles missed in defence. The side’s mental resilience was non-existent.

2. Can they fix it easily?

The Cowboys look as disinterested in the dressing sheds as they do on the field. It’s all slumped shoulders, awkward silences and hands in heads. It stinks of a serious cultural problem at the club. The problem for the Cowboys is that there is no quick fix for deep-seated cultural issues. It takes time, and it takes buy-in from all involved.

Josh McGuire has accused his side of being soft. Picture: Evan Morgan

3. Can they rebound from 0-3?

Going on what the Cowboys have produced in the opening three weeks, and with Jason Taumalolo sidelined with injury, it does not appear the Cowboys have the cattle or the will to turn things around. A win against the Bulldogs in round six will provide a sorely needed confidence boost.

4. Will there be a fan and media over-reaction if they are winless after this round?

Payten’s public baking of star forward Jason Taumalolo has raised questions about the new coach’s approach. Rumblings of disharmony between Payten and star players could soon be followed by cries from frustrated fans to have him removed.

5. Contract situation

Playmaker Michael Morgan, who is on a rich deal, is facing early retirement due to chronic shoulder injury. With Jake Clifford also moving onto to Newcastle next season, the Cowboys look very light in the halves department. It’s believed the club is monitoring talks between Jackson Hastings and the Wests Tigers and could be ready to swoop on the playmaker if a deal cannot be struck at Concord. They are also keen on Rabbitohs captain Adam Reynolds.

Players off contract: Javid Bowen, Ben Condon, Scott Drinkwater, Jake Granville, Wiremu Greig, Ben Hampton, Corey Jensen, Connelly Lemuelu, Justin O‘Neill, Murray Taulagi, Shane Wright

BY THE NUMBERS

Tries: 14th, 1.7 per game

Run metres: 15th, 1264m

Post contact Metres: 14th, 409m

Tackle busts: 13th, 23 per game

Tries conceded: 14th, 5 per game

Missed tackles: 13th, 34.7 per game

Source: Fox Sports Lab

3-0 START

PENRITH PANTHERS

Panthers 24 d Cowboys 0

Panthers 28 d Bulldogs 0

Panthers 12 d Storm 10

1. What are they doing right?

Coach Ivan Cleary has a potent mix of power and strike at his disposal and last weekend was able to showcase the side’s depth, scoring a win against Melbourne without halfback Nathan Cleary and hooker Api Koroisau. Defensively, thanks to work of assistant Cameron Ciraldo, the Panthers have gone to another level even in a faster game designed to for attack and tries.

2. Can they maintain the winning form?

Sure, Penrith’s first two games were against significantly weaker opposition but they don’t look like taking a backward step. State of Origin could be a little tricky if eligible players like Cleary, Jarome Luai, Stephen Crichton and Kurt Capewell keep producing and are selected.

Kurt Capewell celebrates a try against premiers, the Storm. Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images

3. Contract situation

Other than losing Matt Burton to Canterbury next season, Penrith have managed to stave off interest in stars like Stephen Crichton, Spencer Leniu and Luai to secure the bulk of their squad this season. Capewell has been impressive on the right edge and could play himself into another deal beyond this season.

Players off contract: Kurt Capewell, Robert Jennings, Mitchell Kenny, Tyrone May, Brent Naden, Jaeman Salmon, Scott Sorensen

BY THE NUMBERS

Tries: 9th, 3.7 per game

Run metres: 2nd, 1605m

Post contact metres: 3rd, 550m

Tackle busts: 1st, 42.7 per game

Tries conceded: 1st, 0.7 per game

Missed tackles: 3rd, 22.3 per game

Source: Fox Sports Lab

PARRAMATTA EELS

Eels 24 d Broncos 16

Eels 16 d Storm 12

Eels 28 d Sharks 4

1. What are they doing right?

Brad Arthur has assembled a side that is well balanced and made some astute signings with the likes of forward Isaiah Papali’i. But it’s the spine of Clint Gutherson, Reed Mahoney, Dylan Brown and Mitchell Moses that has finally come of age and that has shown in Gutherson’s form, Mahoney’s development and Moses’ maturity and composure.

2. Can they maintain the winning form?

Outside of the Raiders in round six, Parramatta would view their opponents over the next five weeks as winnable matches. Moses has admitted the side had been guilty of becoming complacent, so they’ll need to stay focused to avoid falling under the same trap.

Reagan Campbell-Gillard celebrates his try against the Sharks last weekend. Photo by Matt King/Getty Images

3. Contract situation

Talks between enforcer Nathan Brown and the club are back on after things stalled when the Eels pulled its first offer from the table. There has also been speculation Blake Ferguson will not be retained beyond this year. Rising players David Hollis and Haze Dunster are close to recommitting to the club.

Players off contract: Nathan Brown, Bryce Cartwright, Haze Dunster, Blake Ferguson, David Hollis, Samuel Hughes, Joey Lussick, Michael Oldfield, Tom Opacic, Jordan Rankin, Will Smith, Ray Stone

BY THE NUMBERS

Tries: 4th, 4 per game

Run metres: 1st, 1704m

Post contact metres: 4th, 545m

Tackle busts: 2nd, 34 per game

Tries conceded: 2nd, 2 per game

Missed tackles: 6th, 24.7 per game

Source: Fox Sports Lab