NRL 2020: Brett Kenny calls out Parramatta Eels in run to finals
A worrying trend has emerged which could threaten the Eels premiership hopes, with Parramatta great Brett Kenny saying his old team still has a lot to prove.
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Parramatta great Brett Kenny said the Eels had to beat the Warriors to prove they’re a genuine title threat as statistics exposed a worrying trend for Brad Arthur’s side.
A week after being belted 38-0 by the Rabbitohs, Parramatta bounced back to edge the Warriors in unconvincing fashion — a win that wasn’t enough to say they have got themselves back in the conversation as a genuine premiership threat.
Ahead of Sunday’s clash, an analysis of the Eels’ recent form highlighted major concerns around their attack, headlined by a dramatic drop in production from Mitchell Moses.
Read on for the full analysis of the Eels’ attacking woes heading into the Warriors showdown.
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“If they want to be a top four side, and give themselves a chance to win a premiership, they’re going to have to win,” Kenny said of Sunday’s clash at Central Coast Stadium.
“They have to beat teams like the Warriors.
“They have an opportunity this week against the Warriors to turn it all around, but it won’t be easy for them.”
The numbers from Fox Sports Stats show some worrying trends. Parramatta have passed 20 points in a game just once in their last eight matches — where once they boasted the most prolific attack in the competition, they’ve now scored the fewest points of any team in the top eight.
That’s not due to a lack of forward power either — since Round 9, the Eels average the most metres (1632) and offloads (11.9) per game as well as averaging the third most tackles inside the opposition red zone (32.4) per game.
But they can’t seem to do anything with all this good ball. They score a try per every 20.9 tackles they spend inside the 20-metre line - that’s just over three sets, comfortably the worst in the competition and streets away from their premiership rivals like Penrith, Canberra, the Roosters and Melbourne, who all average fewer than nine tackles inside the 20 per try.
Parramatta are still doing all the things that worked for them before - playing with a heavy emphasis on offloading, early ball to the dangerous outside backs, moving the ball and playing with such width that it ran teams ragged - but it’s not doing the job anymore.
Blaming a team’s halves is an easy way out but there’s no way around the numbers.
Moses began the season in sparkling form, but he’s not been able to find his best football since - he’s got three try assists in 13 games (down from 31 in 26 games last year) and they’ve all come from kicks.
Clint Gutherson has stayed sharp at the back - he leads the Eels for try assists (13) and line break assists (15) and Dylan Brown has had his moments (five try assists) but Moses is the one who takes Parramatta from the fringe of the top four to a premiership contender.
“You watch them over the last three or four weeks, they were struggling to beat sides you would have thought they could beat quite easily, considering their standing in the competition,” Kenny said.
“You look at the individuals, you can see they’ve lost a lot of confidence.
“It happens sometimes when you have a lot of young guys, I’ve experienced it in my time, if they’re winning games they look like they can beat anybody - but they start losing a couple and they’d be lucky to beat an under 10s side.”
Moses’ struggles aren’t the only issue - it extends to the entire right side. Gutherson does much of his best work down the left, and the ball-playing of Shaun Lane (eight line break assists, second-most on the team) helps ease pressure on Brown.
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On the other side, there’s a lot more pressure on Moses to create. Ryan Matterson’s skill is undoubted, but he missed several weeks due to concussion and Parramatta felt his absence sorely. Waqa Blake is a powerful runner, but creating chances for other players is not his strength - Blake Ferguson’s tryscoring drought is proof enough of that.
The pressure will only intensify now Brown is sidelined with an ankle injury - Jai Field is talented, but inexperienced at the top level and is better known as a runner than as a creator.
The talent is still there for Parramatta, and plenty of premiership calibre teams have righted the ship after some mid-season stumbles - but the finals are only three weeks away, and if it’s going to start again it needs to start now.